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An off-shore oil platform in California. Photo: Omar Marques/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The OPEC+ coalition is entering the next phase of fraught market-management efforts that have repercussions for the battered U.S. oil industry.

Driving the news: The group yesterday agreed to press ahead with plans to begin increasing output as demand haltingly recovers.

  • The coalition of OPEC and Russia — among other producers — will ease their joint curbs by roughly 2 million barrels per day starting next month.
  • It hews to a deal struck in April, as COVID-19 shattered demand, to cut 10 million barrels daily from the market for three months before beginning to relax the curbs.

Why it matters: The oil sector is in uncharted waters amid uncertainty over the recovery from unprecedented demand loss and the severity of the COVID-19's trajectory.

  • "Oil market balance is progressively improving … But risks and uncertainties are huge, be they related to the pandemic or to the economic consequences," Algerian energy minister Abdelmadjid Attar said at yesterday's meeting, per the Associated Press.

What they're saying: KPMG analyst Regina Mayor said OPEC+ faces a delicate task amid its members' competition with U.S. producers, whose output is very price-sensitive.

  • "OPEC+ will have to work hard to ‘thread the needle’ to allow slight increases in production without unleashing U.S activity. Basically, this will be a classic case of how to boil the frog without it jumping out of the pot," Mayor said.

Go deeper

Ben Geman, author of Generate
Aug 13, 2020 - Energy & Environment

IEA cuts oil demand forecast, citing "stalling" mobility

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

The International Energy Agency has again lowered its projected global oil demand estimates, "reflecting the stalling of mobility as the number of COVID-19 cases remains high."

Why it matters: The agency's analysis Thursday is the first time in several months that IEA deepened its projection of the extent of the pandemic-driven demand collapse.

Off the Rails

Episode 5: The secret CIA plan

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer, Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Zach Gibson/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. This Axios series takes you inside the collapse of a president.

Episode 5: Trump vs. Gina — The president becomes increasingly rash and devises a plan to tamper with the nation's intelligence command.

In his final weeks in office, after losing the election to Joe Biden, President Donald Trump embarked on a vengeful exit strategy that included a hasty and ill-thought-out plan to jam up CIA Director Gina Haspel by firing her top deputy and replacing him with a protege of Republican Congressman Devin Nunes.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Health: CDC director defends agency's response to pandemic — CDC warns highly transmissible coronavirus variant could become dominant in U.S. in March.
  2. Politics: Empire State Building among hundreds to light up in Biden inauguration coronavirus tribute.
  3. Vaccine: Fauci: 100 million doses in 100 days is "absolutely" doable.
  4. Economy: Unemployment filings explode again.
  5. Tech: Kids' screen time sees a big increase.