Reproduced from Rapidan Energy Group; Chart: Axios Visuals

U.S. oil production is in a steep decline, but one question is how much November's elections will affect how much it does — or doesn't — bounce back.

Why it matters: The powerful price and demand headwinds from the coronavirus pandemic are creating a financial crisis in the oil patch.

  • The fallout will be continuing come November, which will bring a choice between candidates with hugely different energy and climate policy plans.
  • Joe Biden is vowing new steps to stem heat-trapping emissions and accelerate the transition to cleaner fuels and power sources, while President Trump opposes climate regulations and curbs on fossil fuel development.

The big picture: Under the base case of an analysis by Rapidan Energy Group, the "near-term macroeconomic risk remains skewed firmly toward longer, deeper economic weakness," but recovery awaits.

  • U.S. production is a million barrels per day lower by 2023 under Biden than Trump.

Yes, but: Under a weaker price and demand recovery forecast, the effect of Trump's policies compared to Biden's is much smaller.

  • "U.S. shale’s outlook under a weak macro environment differs negligibly under a Trump or Biden presidency," they note, citing the financial strain on the sector and problems accessing capital.
  • "Trump policies would do little to resurrect the sector while Biden policies would do little additional harm."

One level deeper: Rapidan analyzed market scenarios through 2023, and then grafted the policy overlay onto that outlook.

  • The base-case scenario sees Brent crude prices rebounding to the low-$50s in 2023 and a 10 million barrel per day recovery in demand.
  • But the weaker-recovery scenario sees prices only in the low-$40s in 2023 and a demand revival that's about 25% smaller than in the base case.

The intrigue: Under the base case, various Biden policies that act as a check on the amount of shale production levels include requiring stronger emissions controls, thwarting fossil fuel infrastructure, and allowing more Iranian barrels onto the market.

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Trump and Biden begin the battle for Arizona

Photos: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Two striking symbols — the border wall and America's first Black president — did the campaigning yesterday for presidential candidates trying to turn out bases that are worlds apart.

The state of play: Arizona, a state that President Trump won handily in 2016 but where polls now show Joe Biden leading, was firmly on both men's minds.

Big Oil's transatlantic divide on climate change policy

Reproduced from Goldman Sachs Investment Research; Chart: Axios Visuals

Big Oil's transatlantic split on climate change is really on display of late, with a couple of recent reports highlighting the differences.

Driving the news: "Royal Dutch Shell will announce a major restructuring by the end of the year as the energy company prepares to accelerate its shift towards low-carbon, CEO Ben van Beurden told employees," Reuters reports.

Updated Jun 23, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Obama at Biden fundraiser: "I am here to say help is on the way"

Screenshot: Biden campaign virtual fundraiser

Former President Barack Obama said at a virtual fundraiser for Joe Biden Tuesday night that “help is on the way” and urged supporters not to be complacent in thinking their work is close to being finished: "Whatever you’ve done so far is not enough."

Why it matters: Organizers said it's the Biden campaign's largest fundraiser yet, bringing in $7.6 million from over 175,000 people. It's expected to be the first of several joint efforts with Biden in the months leading up to the election.