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Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

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Adapted from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Chart: Axios Visuals

A new report from the Dallas Fed offers a sobering look at how much the oil price collapse and falling demand are going to batter the U.S. industry.

Driving the news: Their survey of oil companies showed that many need oil prices far higher than today's low prices to profitably drill new wells.

  • A separate part of their quarterly report shows that for some companies in some regions, prices are now below what's needed to profitably operate existing wells.

Why it matters: Shale producers — both majors and independents — are planning to sharply pare back spending. Steep job losses loom in the drilling services industry.

What's next: The chart helps explain why U.S. production is slated to begin falling, though it'll take a while.

  • "We expect the recent steep decline in prices to start showing in U.S. oil production data by July, as [well] completion activity is sticky over the very short term, primarily due to hedging," Barclays analysts said this week.
  • The Energy Information Administration sees U.S. production starting to slide in Q3, and fall to an average of 12.66 million barrels per day next year compared to roughly 13 million this year.
  • Their next forecast will show up in early April and could show even deeper projected declines.

Go deeper: Oil giants announce steep cutbacks

Go deeper

Erica Pandey, author of @Work
50 mins ago - Economy & Business

What's really going on with the labor market

Source: YCharts

The labor market is showing some signs of improvement: Jobless claims fell to 730,000 — a dramatic drop from 841,000 the previous week. And the latest jobs report showed a pandemic-era low unemployment rate of 6.3%

But, but, but: That's not the full story, experts say.

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
58 mins ago - Economy & Business

Markets see rare convergence milestone

Expand chart
Data: YCharts; Chart: Axios Visuals

A milestone was reached in the markets Thursday: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to match the dividend yield on the S&P 500

Why it matters: The two yields have been inverted since the beginning of last year, which is historically unusual.

Mike Allen, author of AM
2 hours ago - Economy & Business

First look: Business puts muscle behind Biden

Business Roundtable, the voice of America's top CEOs, today launched "Move the Needle," a campaign to support President Biden in rolling out COVID vaccines, increasing vaccine uptake and encouraging masks.

What they're saying: "Masks and vaccines are working. Now is the time to keep at it, overcome pandemic fatigue, and double down on the measures that will end this public health and economic crisis, said Business Roundtable president and CEO Josh Bolten.

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