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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

A COVID-19 vaccine is "unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time," the International Energy Agency warned as they deepened their estimate of the pandemic's near-term effect on oil demand.

Why it matters: This morning's monthly oil market report is IEA's first analysis of where supply and demand is heading since Pfizer and BioNTech announced promising early results from its vaccine trials.

What they're saying: "[I]t is far too early to know how and when vaccines will allow normal life to resume. For now, our forecasts do not anticipate a significant impact in the first half of 2021," IEA said.

  • "Vaccines are unlikely to significantly boost demand until well into next year," they said.

Threat level: Surging caseloads and new lockdowns led IEA to increase their estimate for how much oil demand will fall this year.

  • IEA sees demand falling by 8.8 million barrels per day compared to 2019 levels, which is 400,000 barrels per day more than their prior monthly analysis (though revisions to past data also play a role).

What's next: Market watchers are looking to see whether OPEC+ will revisit plans to ease their joint supply curbs at the end of the year.

  • "With a COVID-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December," IEA said.

Where it stands: "Talks between OPEC and its allies are zeroing in on a delay to next year’s planned oil-output increase of three to six months, according to several delegates," Bloomberg reports.

Go deeper

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
Updated Nov 20, 2020 - Health

Pfizer applies for FDA emergency use authorization for coronavirus vaccine

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Pfizer and Germany's BioNTech said that they applied on Friday for an FDA emergency use authorization for their coronavirus vaccine.

Why it matters: This could set the stage for initial vaccine distribution in the U.S. by mid-to-late December. It also comes less than two weeks after Pfizer released efficacy data for its vaccine, and just days after releasing safety data — which suggests that fellow vaccine developer Moderna may apply for its emergency use authorization around Thanksgiving.

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
1 hour ago - Economy & Business

New deals in the COVID economy

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

COVID-19 is the macro horror of our lifetimes, and has destroyed or severely damaged countless businesses. But, like with most horribles, it also has created some opportunities.

Driving the news: Merck this morning announced an agreement to buy OncoImmune, a Maryland-based biotech that showed promising late-stage clinical results for a therapy that treats severe and critical coronavirus cases.

2 hours ago - Technology

Biden's openings for tech progress

Photo illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images 

Item No. 1 on President-elect Joe Biden's day-one tech agenda, controlling the flood of misinformation online, offers no fast fixes — but other tech issues facing the new administration hold out opportunities for quick action and concrete progress.

What to watch: Closing the digital divide will be a high priority, as the pandemic has exposed how many Americans still lack reliable in-home internet connections and the devices needed to work and learn remotely.