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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The oil, gas and chemicals industry shed 107,000 U.S. jobs in March–August as the pandemic hit prices and the wider economy, marking the fastest rate of layoffs in industry history, Deloitte analysts said.

Why it matters: Their new report released Monday warns that the sector's employment may remain depressed for a long time.

  • Just 30% of lost jobs will have returned by the end of 2021 in their "main scenario," which sees U.S. oil prices stuck at $45 per barrel and natural gas at $2.50 per million British thermal units.
  • A "pessimistic" case with oil at $35 and gas at $2/mmBtu shows just 3% of jobs coming back by then.
  • But even their "optimistic" case (where oil is at $55 and gas at $3) shows only 76% of those jobs will return by the end of 2021.
  • Note: The tally of 107,000 layoffs does not even include furloughs.

Threat level: Industry employment has gotten more sensitive to changes in prices thanks to the "short cycle" nature of shale projects. By the mid-2010s, this "cyclicality" was twice as high as the 1990s, per Deloitte.

  • "A monthly correlation of oil prices and employment ... reveals that a dollar movement in oil prices affected 3,000 exploration and production and [oilfield services] jobs vs. 1,500 in the 1990s."

What's next: Companies should use the crisis to better position themselves via steps like embracing low-carbon energy transition and trying harder to lure young talent in fields like "data scientists, emissions officers, or user-experience designers."

Go deeper: The oil and gas industry has lost more than 100,000 jobs this year (Fortune)

Go deeper

The jobs report silver linings that are a mirage

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

The labor market recovery came to a screeching halt in December, and the few data points that look promising for some of the most vulnerable working Americans are actually deeply troubling upon further inspection.

Driving the news: The recovery was interrupted as the coronavirus raged and the government was slow to move on fiscal support. 

Updated 25 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

  1. Health: Most vulnerable Americans aren't getting enough vaccine information — Fauci says Trump administration's lack of facts on COVID "very likely" cost lives.
  2. Education: Schools face an uphill battle to reopen during the pandemic.
  3. Vaccine: Florida requiring proof of residency to get vaccine — CDC extends interval between vaccine doses for exceptional cases.
  4. World: Hong Kong puts tens of thousands on lockdown as cases surge — Pfizer to supply 40 million vaccine doses to lower-income countries — Brazil begins distributing AstraZeneca vaccine.
  5. Sports: 2021 Tokyo Olympics hang in the balance.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: Carbon Health's CEO on unsticking the vaccine bottleneck.

DOJ: Capitol rioter threatened to "assassinate" Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Supporters of former President Trump storm the U.S. Captiol on Jan. 6. Photo: Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

A Texas man who has been charged with storming the U.S. Capitol in the deadly Jan. 6 siege posted death threats against Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), the Department of Justice said.

The big picture: Garret Miller faces five charges in connection to the riot by supporters of former President Trump, including violent entry and disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds and making threats. According to court documents, Miller posted violent threats online the day of the siege, including tweeting “Assassinate AOC.”

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