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Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The oil, gas and chemicals industry shed 107,000 U.S. jobs in March–August as the pandemic hit prices and the wider economy, marking the fastest rate of layoffs in industry history, Deloitte analysts said.

Why it matters: Their new report released Monday warns that the sector's employment may remain depressed for a long time.

  • Just 30% of lost jobs will have returned by the end of 2021 in their "main scenario," which sees U.S. oil prices stuck at $45 per barrel and natural gas at $2.50 per million British thermal units.
  • A "pessimistic" case with oil at $35 and gas at $2/mmBtu shows just 3% of jobs coming back by then.
  • But even their "optimistic" case (where oil is at $55 and gas at $3) shows only 76% of those jobs will return by the end of 2021.
  • Note: The tally of 107,000 layoffs does not even include furloughs.

Threat level: Industry employment has gotten more sensitive to changes in prices thanks to the "short cycle" nature of shale projects. By the mid-2010s, this "cyclicality" was twice as high as the 1990s, per Deloitte.

  • "A monthly correlation of oil prices and employment ... reveals that a dollar movement in oil prices affected 3,000 exploration and production and [oilfield services] jobs vs. 1,500 in the 1990s."

What's next: Companies should use the crisis to better position themselves via steps like embracing low-carbon energy transition and trying harder to lure young talent in fields like "data scientists, emissions officers, or user-experience designers."

Go deeper: The oil and gas industry has lost more than 100,000 jobs this year (Fortune)

Go deeper

The jobs report silver linings that are a mirage

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

The labor market recovery came to a screeching halt in December, and the few data points that look promising for some of the most vulnerable working Americans are actually deeply troubling upon further inspection.

Driving the news: The recovery was interrupted as the coronavirus raged and the government was slow to move on fiscal support. 

1 hour ago - Sports

Unvaccinated athletes face 21-day quarantine at Beijing Olympics

Logos for the 2022 Winter Olympics at Yanqing Ice Festival in February 2021 in Beijing. Photo: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

Athletes, staff members and journalists at the 2022 Beijing Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games who have not been vaccinated against the coronavirus will be required to quarantine for three weeks, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) outlined in its newly-published "playbooks."

Why it matters: The quarantine period is longer than the Games themselves, meaning vaccinations or an earlier arrival date will be required to participate in or cover the Games.

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
3 hours ago - Economy & Business

FTX CEO predicts more U.S. crypto flight

Photo: "Axios on HBO"

FTX doesn't look much like a company valued at $25 billion. Its new headquarters, located in a sleepy part of The Bahamas, is so nondescript as to not even have a sign. But it does expect to soon have neighbors.

Driving the news: Founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried tells "Axios on HBO" to expect "more and more crypto flight from the states" if the U.S. doesn't soon create a regulatory regime for cryptocurrencies.

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