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Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

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The demand of oil crashed due to restrictions from coronavirus. Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images

The International Energy Agency sees oil demand surging by an unprecedented 5.7 million barrels per day next year, but even that would leave it 2.4 million below 2019 levels.

Why it matters: This morning's report is the first time that IEA's closely watched, detailed monthly market analysis has looked ahead to 2021.

  • IEA sees a major return to activity (which is already underway), but also expects the collapse in air travel will drag on oil demand until 2022 — or even well beyond.
  • The sharply lower demand projected in 2021 compared to the pre-COVID era of 2019 is "largely explained by the dire situation of the aviation sector," IEA notes, citing industry estimates that passenger traffic will still be down about 55%.

The big picture: IEA also now sees global demand down 8.1 million barrels per day this year compared to 2019, which is an unprecedented collapse but not quite as steep as they had once projected.

  • "While the oil market remains fragile, the recent modest recovery in prices suggests that the first half of 2020 is ending on a more optimistic note," IEA said.
  • "If recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will be on a more stable footing by the end of the second half," they said, citing production cuts by OPEC+ and other nations.

Worth noting: Take these recovery estimates with a grain of salt. Or chunks of salt. "[W]e should not underestimate the enormous uncertainties," IEA said.

Go deeper

Amy Harder, author of Generate
Aug 6, 2020 - Energy & Environment

Coronavirus hastens Big Oil's Atlantic divide on climate change

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The pandemic is accelerating a divide between European and American oil companies over climate change and clean energy.

Why it matters: Bottom lines and investor returns will be vastly different across the corporate spectrum depending on how aggressively the world tackles climate change in the coming decades.

Chris Cuomo accuser: On-air "hypocrisy" spurred report

Journalist Chris Cuomo. Photo: Gilbert Carrasquillo/GC Images

A woman who accused fired CNN journalist Chris Cuomo of sexual misconduct said Sunday she decided to come forward after learning of his comments about women who made similar accusations about his brother. He denies her allegations.

Why it matters: Her attorney Debra Katz said in a statement that she heard "the hypocrisy" of his on-air words about his brother, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and was "disgusted by his efforts to try to discredit these women," so "retained counsel to report his serious sexual misconduct against her to CNN."

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

  1. Health: CDC director says number of U.S. Omicron cases "likely to rise" — Two years of COVID-19 — Prior coronavirus infections may not protect well against Omicron.
  2. Vaccines: Data demonstrates most-vaccinated counties less vulnerable to worst of COVID — Omicron adds urgency to vaccinating world — Omicron fuels the case for COVID boosters.
  3. Politics: Nevada to impose insurance surcharge on unvaccinated state workers — New Jersey GOP lawmakers defy statehouse COVID policy — Oklahoma sues Biden administration over Pentagon vaccine mandate.
  4. World: Vaccine mandates lose steam in the U.S. while Europe doubles downWHO: Delta health measures help fight Omicron — COVID cases surge in South Africa in sign Omicron wave is coming.
  5. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.

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