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The demand of oil crashed due to restrictions from coronavirus. Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images

The International Energy Agency sees oil demand surging by an unprecedented 5.7 million barrels per day next year, but even that would leave it 2.4 million below 2019 levels.

Why it matters: This morning's report is the first time that IEA's closely watched, detailed monthly market analysis has looked ahead to 2021.

  • IEA sees a major return to activity (which is already underway), but also expects the collapse in air travel will drag on oil demand until 2022 — or even well beyond.
  • The sharply lower demand projected in 2021 compared to the pre-COVID era of 2019 is "largely explained by the dire situation of the aviation sector," IEA notes, citing industry estimates that passenger traffic will still be down about 55%.

The big picture: IEA also now sees global demand down 8.1 million barrels per day this year compared to 2019, which is an unprecedented collapse but not quite as steep as they had once projected.

  • "While the oil market remains fragile, the recent modest recovery in prices suggests that the first half of 2020 is ending on a more optimistic note," IEA said.
  • "If recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will be on a more stable footing by the end of the second half," they said, citing production cuts by OPEC+ and other nations.

Worth noting: Take these recovery estimates with a grain of salt. Or chunks of salt. "[W]e should not underestimate the enormous uncertainties," IEA said.

Go deeper

Amy Harder, author of Generate
Aug 6, 2020 - Energy & Environment

Coronavirus hastens Big Oil's Atlantic divide on climate change

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The pandemic is accelerating a divide between European and American oil companies over climate change and clean energy.

Why it matters: Bottom lines and investor returns will be vastly different across the corporate spectrum depending on how aggressively the world tackles climate change in the coming decades.

Rep. Rice demands Cuomo resign after 3rd woman accuses him of misconduct

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo during a February news conference in New York City. Photo: Seth Wenig/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) on Monday evening called for New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) to resign, after a third woman accused him of inappropriate behavior.

Driving the news: Anna Ruch, a former member of the Obama administration and the 2020 Biden campaign, told the New York Times Monday that Cuomo asked to kiss her at a New York City wedding reception in September 2019.

Scoop: Inside the GOP's plan to retake the House

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images

House Republicans will reclaim their majority in 2022 by offering candidates who are women, minorities or veterans, a memo obtained by Axios says.

Why it matters: The document, drafted by a super PAC blessed by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, names top Democrats to target — Jared Golden of Maine, Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania and Ron Kind of Wisconsin — and the type of Republican candidates to beat them.

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