Nov 4, 2019

N.Y. Fed forecast: U.S. Q4 GDP growth to fall to 0.8%

Dion Rabouin
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The New York Fed's GDP projection model predicted U.S. growth would slow to 0.8% in the fourth quarter.

Why it matters: If correct, it would be the weakest quarter since Q4 2015 and put the economy well off the pace of 2018's 2.9% annual growth.

  • However, prior to Q3's on-the-nose prediction of 1.9% quarterly growth, the N.Y. Fed's nowcasts haven't been especially accurate.

Go deeper: Economists see sustained low growth, but no recession

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Courtenay Brown

U.S. GDP growth revised higher to 2.1% in third quarter

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized pace in the third quarter — faster than the initial read of 1.9% — according to revised data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.

Why it matters: The revision occurred thanks to an upward revision in business spending, indicating that the economy's slowdown was not as harsh as feared in the face of the U.S.-China trade war. The change means that economic growth accelerated marginally from the prior quarter's 2% growth, but it's worth noting that economists are much less optimistic about growth prospects for the current quarter.

Go deeper: Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz calls for the end of GDP

Keep ReadingArrowNov 27, 2019
Courtenay Brown

The economic toll of climate change

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Top economists say the economic effects of climate change are just starting to be felt — and they're likely to start snowballing.

Why it matters: Wildfires, floods, and other natural disasters could harm the nation's financial backbone, damaging vital electronic payment systems, causing bank failures, and disrupting the economy in myriad unanticipated ways.

Go deeperArrowNov 9, 2019
Courtenay Brown

Consumers are picking up the lagging business sector's slack

Reproduced from LPL Research; Note: "Other components" includes housing, inventories, trade and government spending; Chart: Axios Visuals

The narrative of the U.S. economy lately has been strong consumer spending as the cornerstone of growth, offsetting lackluster business investment.

Driving the news: Economists pared down estimates for Q4 GDP — prompted by worse-than-expected economic data on Friday. The downgrades would have been worse, if not for retail sales figures that pointed to a solid, but slightly more cautious, consumer.

Go deeperArrowNov 18, 2019