Open embedded content from datawrapper.dwcdn.net

New coronavirus cases are continuing to decline, and some experts are cautiously optimistic the virus will continue to wane even into the fall and winter, Axios' Sam Baker writes.

The big picture: The next few months are highly uncertain, and some localized outbreaks are all but guaranteed. But the U.S. is at least moving in the right direction again.

By the numbers: The U.S. is averaging roughly 134,000 new cases per day — a 10% drop over the past two weeks.

• The pace of new infections, relative to each state’s population, is getting worse in 27 states and improving in 23.

Yes, but: Deaths have increased about 33% over the past two weeks, to an average of about 2,000 per day.

• Deaths are a lagging indicator — the last number to go up when a new wave begins, and the last to go down when that wave recedes.

What’s next: The U.S. has seen brief moments of progress before. They've never lasted long. But some experts believe the pandemic may actually keep shrinking over the next several months.

• The NIH is looking at models that suggest cases may be down to about 15,000 per day by November, STAT reports. Between vaccinations and people who have already been sick, the number of Americans with some immune protection from the virus is pretty high.
• Vaccinations for kids will also help contain the virus. Children ages 5–11 could become eligible for vaccinations in the next several weeks, according to NIAID director Anthony Fauci.

The bottom line: "I hope it's true, obviously, but I can't shake a little unease I have about what could be coming," Emory University professor Natalie Dean told NPR.

Share the map.

Some hospitals are refusing to administer Biogen's new Alzheimer's drug, Aduhelm, but many freestanding infusion centers are offering it despite concerns about the drug's safety and lack of effectiveness, Axios' Bob Herman reports.

Yes, but: Hardly any patients are receiving the drug. Just over 100 patients have actually gotten Aduhelm so far, way below Biogen's already-tempered forecasts, STAT reported.

What we're seeing: Infusion centers not owned by hospitals are enticing prospective Aduhelm patients with goodies.

• IVX Health, which operates 50 outpatient centers in affluent suburbs, says people who take Aduhelm can enjoy "big-screen TVs, high-speed WiFi, [and] free snacks."
• Memory Treatment Centers in Florida and FlexCare Infusion Centers in Oklahoma advertised Aduhelm patients can get private suites, heated massage chairs, free food and Netflix.
• The head neurologist of Memory Treatment Centers boasted that "there is real light and hope" with Aduhelm, without acknowledging the drug's side effects or the lack of proof it works. The company did not respond to multiple phone calls and emails.

What they're saying: "We're going to rely on the FDA and the processes they have to approve medications, and then rely on the clinical expertise of the referring physician," IVX Health CEO Doug Ghertner told Axios.

During a virtual COVID-19 summit hosted by the White House on Wednesday, the U.S. pledged purchases of 500 million additional doses of vaccines to share globally.

• During the summit, the U.S. also said it would donate an additional $370 million to support administering the shots worldwide and $380 million for the COVAX vaccination project.
• The U.S. also pledged $250 million to establish a global health security intermediary fund at the World Bank aimed at preparing for future pandemics, Vice President Kamala Harris announced.

Open embedded content from datawrapper.dwcdn.net

The dearth of workers in nursing homes and assisted living facilities is worsening, and the industry warns mask mandates could further exacerbate the crisis, Axios' Jennifer Kingson writes.

Driving the news: All health care workers in New York state will face termination if they don't have at least one COVID-19 vaccination shot by Monday.

• This will "compound a staffing crisis already afflicting many hospitals and long-term care facilities," per the Times-Union of Albany.
• 78% of nursing homes are concerned they may have to close if the staffing emergency persists, as are 71% of assisted living facilities, according to a survey by the American Health Care Association and National Center for Assisted Living.
• 45% of nursing homes said vaccine requirements were the biggest obstacle in hiring.

Yes, but: Public health experts increasingly agree mandates are necessary.

• "Mandating vaccines may be the fastest way to return to normal," wrote Rebecca Weintraub of Harvard Medical School, Benjy Renton of Ariadne Labs, and Boston Children's John Brownstein in an ABC News opinion this week.

Related: "Vaccine requirements work" United Airlines tells employees

• Moderna accepted $2.5 billion in taxpayer money to develop its COVID-19 vaccine. But officials in the U.S. and overseas are having trouble persuading the company to license its technology. (New York Times)
• Democrats roll the dice on sweeping abortion bights bill — again. (Kaiser Health News)
• Public health experts "flabbergasted" that Biden still hasn’t picked an FDA chief. (Kaiser Health News)
• Former U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis says Elizabeth Holmes was "committed" at Theranos. (Bloomberg)