Forecasts for 2025 home prices in the Twin Cities are all over the map.

Why it matters: This metro has historically had one of the more stable housing markets in the country, and despite some incorrect predictions of a major cooling, it's remained that way.

What they're saying: Zillow is predicting Twin Cities home values will rise just 0.2% in 2025, saying it will be one of the coolest markets in the country.

• Realtor.com, however, forecasts an increase of 6.2%, well above its 4% national prediction.

Reality check: Zillow predicted home prices here to fall 3% last year, but instead the median price rose 3.5% — reaching a peak of $389,000 in August.

Between the lines: Local experts have been more accurate in their predictions.

• Last year, David Arbit, director of research for Minnesota Realtors, accurately predicted home prices to rise 2-4% in 2024.

What we're watching Arbit said he doesn't like making predictions, especially with so many variables right now. But he couldn't resist.

• "I'd expect a 4-5% (price) increase for next year," he told Axios in an email.

The bottom line: While rising prices aren't great news for first-time home buyers, Arbit expects the volume of sales to increase 7-10% as "people continue to adjust to the new (mortgage) rate environment and wage growth hopefully continues to outpace inflation."

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Gov. Tim Walz is downplaying reports of a fallout with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in his first public comments on the rift.

What he's saying: In an interview with WCCO Radio Thursday morning, Walz dismissed the news that was first reported by Axios as "palace intrigue."

• "We're transitioning back after a national campaign, and we're just taking a look at ... how do we approach this job to cover more ground?" he said of their notable lack of joint events since Election Day."

Catch up quick: The political allies have been on the outs since shortly after Walz's return from the national campaign trail, multiple DFL sources told Axios.

• Flanagan's moves to prepare for her own administration and campaign had Walz won the vice presidency caused tensions between the two to boil over, sources told both Axios and the Star Tribune.

The intrigue: Walz deflected a question on the Star Tribune's claim that Flanagan's use of campaign funds was a source of frustration, saying: "I don't know about that."

• Flanagan has not commented publicly on the situation.

More coverage: Lack of joint events fuels talk of rift between Walz and his lieutenant governor

What Walz said

💳 Congress voted down a spending bill last night and has until 12:01 am tomorrow to approve one and avoid a government shutdown. (Axios)

• Nearly 17,000 federal workers in Minnesota could be furloughed or working without pay if no deal is reached. (Star Tribune)

🖊️ St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter used his line-item veto powers to restore roughly $2.3 million the city council had removed from next year's budget, including cuts to police overtime. (Kyle on X)

• The council voted to override the vetoes yesterday. The mayor argued the vote was meaningless because it came after a legal deadline. (Pioneer Press)

❄️ Snowmobile-maker Arctic Cat is shutting down manufacturing indefinitely at its St. Cloud and Thief River Falls facilities. (MPR News)

🏛️ Luigi Mangione is now facing federal murder charges in connection to the death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. (Axios)

• Mangione arrived in New York Thursday afternoon after waiving extradition and agreeing to be transferred from Pennsylvania.

😬 A student driver crashed their SUV into the Chaska License Center during their road test. No one was hurt. (Fox 9)

😢 Nanna, the blind and deaf senior dog whose owner set out to walk her across every bridge in the Twin Cities, has died. She was 18. (Announcement via X/Background via MPR News)

Record numbers of travelers are taking to the skies this year, according to the latest TSA data.

The big picture: This is more than a rebound from the worst of the pandemic. TSA checkpoints screened 3.1 million travelers on Dec. 1 — an all-time record — and numbers have been high throughout 2024.

Zoom in: MSP Airport officials forecast a 6% year-over-year increase in travel between today and Jan. 6, according to a newly-released forecast.

What we're watching: Today should be the busiest day before Christmas, with MSP officials expecting 45,000 travelers in security lines.

• The single busiest day will be Dec. 26, with just under 50,000 people flying.

☕ Sip on these upcoming events.

2024 Cabaret of Lights: A Hanukkah Burlesque Show at Capri Theater on Dec 21: Oh, Hanukkah, oh Hanukkah, come see all the peelers. Grab your dreidel and spin on down to the Capri Theater for Cabaret of Lights: A Hanukkah Burlesque Show. $18-$36. 

Planning an event? Email [email protected].

More North Pole mail is being answered, according to U.S. Postal Service data shared with Axios.

What's happening: USPS Operation Santa, which started in 1912, authorizes Santa's helpers to read and respond to North Pole letters. The program has seen record participation in the past several years.

How it works: Verified Operation Santa users "adopt" letters from children and send requested gifts, with the goal of packages arriving by Christmas Day.