Barely six months ago, Mike Johnson needed Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to rescue his House speakership. Now he's the favorite for speaker next year.

Why it matters: Johnson's risky parlay of limping it along on must-pass legislation while tying himself to President-elect Trump's fate has paid out big.

• Democrats admit to us the GOP has the inside track and could even grow its five-seat majority.

🔮 It's not Johnson's dream majority.

• He may not have the juice to reverse rules changes that castrated the speakership. That single-member motion to vacate may survive his era.

Getting House members into the Trump administration may be tricky too.

• Majority Leader Steve Scalise told us exclusively last week House Republicans would want a cushion of eight to 12 seats to feel good about losing members to the administration while keeping a working majority.

🔥 But with Trump in the White House, Johnson has a viable route to boxing out his House GOP critics on government funding and much more.

• "I'm ready to take the field with all of you, and I am humbly asking for your support to continue leading this Conference as your Speaker," he told House Republicans in a letter to members sent today.

The bottom line: House Democrats at this point would have to defend most of their vulnerable incumbents and pick up a multitude of GOP seats in California and Arizona to eke out a majority.

• "Their pathway is wider and ours is narrow," Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) told us.
• Democratic leadership was "disappointed" about the overall outcome of the election during a call tonight but still holding out hope for a come-from-behind House victory, a source familiar with the matter told us.

— Justin Green, Juliegrace Brufke and Andrew Solender

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) has told Trump's team he will not be accepting administration roles, despite being a top contender for positions including CIA director and secretary of Defense, two sources familiar tell us.

Why it matters: Cotton — a relatively young, conservative defense hawk — is a much-speculated future presidential contender.

• Cotton will remain a Trump ally in the Senate, where he is running against Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) for conference chair, the No. 3 Senate GOP leadership position.
• He's thought to have the edge in the leadership race scheduled for next Wednesday, sources tell us.
• Ernst, who is currently ranked No. 4, was upset when Cotton jumped the gun earlier this year in announcing his bid for Republican Conference chair without giving her a heads-up.

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— Stef Kight

All that's left in the Senate is to find out whether the GOP margin next year is two, three or four.

• They're at 52 seats, with Republicans Dave McCormick and Sam Brown leading in Pennsylvania and Nevada, respectively. Of the two, Democrats have a better shot at surviving in Nevada.

Why it matters: For either John Thune or John Cornyn — Rick Scott's still a long shot at best for GOP leader — the margin matters a ton.

• In the short-term, 54 GOP senators would mean the new Republican leader can take four defections and still move nominations and legislation through special budget procedures, with Vice President-elect Vance breaking the tie.
• Convincing five GOP senators to band together for a blocking coalition is exponentially harder than four.
• But if they stall out at 52, just one Republican would need to join with Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) to hold the leader hostage.

In the long term, a four-seat majority relieves pressure on the GOP for two more cycles.

• In 2026, Republicans will have to defend only one seat in a blue state (Maine) and one in a battleground (North Carolina).
• In 2028, Republicans will be on defense in just two battlegrounds (North Carolina and Wisconsin). If they win three of those four (and keep all the Trump states), they are looking at a six-year reign.

— Hans Nichols and Stef Kight