The battle lines for the Senate GOP leader race are finally in sharp focus:

• The dark horse is sitting it out, the MAGA influencers are swarming in and a deadline's been set.

Why it matters: Sen. John Thune, currently the GOP No. 2, has long been considered a front-runner to replace Mitch McConnell. But several GOP sources have noted serious momentum behind Sen. John Cornyn's bid in recent weeks.

• One senior Senate source told us Cornyn has a strong pitch for senators to name him leader.

Zoom in: Both Thune and Cornyn have had rocky relationships with the former president but have worked hard to smooth them over.

• The potential for Trump to weigh in has loomed over the race, with some senators hoping that he won't, but no one really knows.
• A neutral Trump would allow them to duke it out the old-fashioned way: Reminding senators who got them elected and what they can do to put them in the majority. The vote is secret.

Between the lines: The Johns have dodged a dark-horse challenge from NRSC chair Sen. Steve Daines, who could have been a Trump mystery candidate.

• Behind the scenes, Daines had hinted to colleagues for several weeks that he wasn't interested in the leader job, sources told us. Now it's official, as he told Semafor he's out.
• But Daines' decision not to run doesn't solve the riddle of if — or when — the former president will weigh in.

Driving the news: Enter Laura Loomer, the far-right activist who was a fixture at Trump's side in recent months.

• "We the loyal MAGA BASE are going to revolt against a Cornyn or Thune leadership installation," Loomer posted on X today.
• This came after Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) was interviewed on her show.

Zoom out: Thune has been zipping across the country fundraising and campaigning for candidates who could help hand the GOP a Senate majority. He's hit eight states this month, some multiple times.

• He's raised more than $31 million this cycle and set a new record for the largest one-time donation to the GOP campaign arm at $4 million.
• Cornyn has spent time with Trump twice this month and continued his long track record of hard-dollar fundraising for GOP candidates, including visiting Michigan, Indiana and Nevada over the recess.
• He's raised a whopping $400 million in hard dollars since 2002, he announced earlier this month.

Share this story

— Stef Kight and Hans Nichols

Some House Democrats are building a de facto closing message around a pair of self-inflicted October surprises from the GOP.

• Why it matters: Democrats are six seats away from promoting Hakeem Jeffries to speaker.

Lifeline 1: Speaker Mike Johnson, campaigning for Rep. Susan Wild's (D-Pa.) GOP opponent Ryan Mackenzie, appeared to criticize the Affordable Care Act.

• "No Obamacare. The ACA is so deeply ingrained, we need massive reform to make this work, and we got a lot of ideas on how to do that," the speaker said, according to video reported by NBC News.
• The Jeffries-linked House Majority PAC blasted out a series of press releases pushing Republicans in key races to denounce or disinvite Johnson over the comments.
• Johnson's pushback: "Despite the dishonest characterizations from the Harris campaign, the audio and transcript make clear that I offered no such promise to end Obamacare, and in fact acknowledged that the policy is 'deeply ingrained' in our health care system," he said in a statement.

Lifeline 2: Democrats running in districts with large Puerto Rican populations were quick to jump on comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's comparison of Puerto Rico to an "island of garbage" at Trump's rally on Sunday.

• Democratic House candidates Wild, Rep. Jahana Hayes (Conn.), Mondaire Jones (N.Y.) and Laura Gillen (N.Y.) swiftly put out statements condemning the joke.
• Gillen's opponent, Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.), condemned Hinchcliffe's rhetoric — with the Trump campaign also backing away from it.
• But Gillen tied him to it anyway. "Anthony D'Esposito has given Trump a full-throated endorsement, cheered him on at every turn, and even rode in the motorcade with him this past weekend," she said in a statement to us.

Share this story

— Andrew Solender

The Senate's new power structure is already warning Trump that his confirmation wish list has its limits.

• First up: Don't expect a successful Cabinet confirmation for RFK Jr., who says he's been promised control of U.S. health agencies if Trump wins the White House, Semafor reports.

Why it matters: As we told you Sunday, Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) will serve as effective vetoes on Trump Cabinet nominations unless the GOP overperforms in Senate races next week.