Axios Sneak Peek

The back of a propped up cardboard cut-out of the U.S. Capitol.

November 08, 2024

Justin Green

We've got news on two fronts. 792 words, a 3-minute read.

🚨Scoop: Trump waved off Scott
👀 Schumer's survivors
🗓 Save the date: Jeffries' leader races

🏛️ Reader note: This is the last edition of Sneak Peek.

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1 big thing: 🚨Scoop: Trump waved off Scott

Photo illustration of Senator John Thune, Senator Rick Scott and Senator John Cornyn overlapped by a red tie. — Photo illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photos: Andrew Harnik, Anna Moneymaker, Kevin Dietsch via Getty Images

President-elect Trump privately dismissed Rick Scott's Senate GOP leader bid in the weeks before the election, telling allies it is "not serious," we have learned.

A senior Trump campaign official pushed back, saying Trump "hasn't weighed in on the leadership race and anyone who says differently is wrong."

Why it matters: People very close to Trump have privately signaled their support for Scott as leader, which the Florida senator hopes could turn into public backing by Trump, three sources familiar with the dynamic have told us.

Scott had signs at his campaign victory party on Tuesday that read "Rick Scott for Senate Majority Leader," and he focused his acceptance speech on what he would do as leader.
Fellow conservative firebrand Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) called on Trump to endorse Scott for leader, and controversial MAGA personality Laura Loomer has also been stumping for Scott.

Zoom out: Most sources we hear from in and around the Capitol view John Thune as the most likely winner, though John Cornyn has had some momentum.

But sources were confused by Thune's choice in two recent TV appearances to discourage Trump from endorsing.
"I think it's in his best interest — to stay out of that," Thune told CNBC's "Squawk Box" this morning. "These Senate secret ballot elections are best left to senators. And he's got to work with all of us when it's all said and done. But whatever he decides to do, that's going to be his prerogative, as we know."
Cornyn has been steering clear of that, but made his pitch to Trump on Fox News on Monday, saying, "As I told President Trump, I'm interested in getting the band back together again."

The bottom line: "At the end of the day, the president does like to be with people that have a possibility to win too," Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told us in a short interview today.

Mullin has publicly backed Thune. He regularly talks with Trump and has encouraged the former president not to weigh in.
With 53 GOP Senate seats, "it's not worth the political capital for the president to spend, because if he endorses one, that means he's made the other two mad," Mullin said.

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— Stef Kight

2. 👀 Schumer's survivors

Table showing the party control of the Minnesota House, Senate and Governorship since 1999. One party has only controlled all three chambers 2 times in the past 13 legislative sessions. — Data: Associated Press; Table: Thomas Oide/Axios

The only silver lining for Chuck Schumer this week after the GOP's rout is that four Democratic senators are surviving or winning in Trump-won battleground states.

Why it matters: These split-ticket survivors are enough to give Democrats a chance at retaking a Senate majority in two years.

Sen. Bob Casey narrowly missed this list. The AP called Pennsylvania for Republican Dave McCormick this afternoon.

The big picture: The last time we saw major split-ticket action was 2012, when six states — Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, West Virginia and Missouri — split their tickets, choosing Obama for president and Republicans as their senators.

It didn't happen at all in 2016, and only Maine split its ticket in 2020, voting for President Biden and GOP Sen. Susan Collins.

— Stephen Neukam

3. 🗓 Save the date: Jeffries' leader races

This is Hakeem Jeffries — House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Photo: Adam Gray/Bloomberg via Getty Images

House Democrats will hold their leadership elections on Nov. 19 and 20, Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) announced today.

Why it matters: Hakeem Jeffries is poised to stay on as leader despite Democrats' disappointing performance in Tuesday's elections.

Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) are expected to remain the No. 2 and 3 Democrats without any opposition.

Driving the news: Aguilar said in a "dear colleague" letter to House Democrats that "while control of the House has not yet been decided ... we must prepare to continue our work to put People Over Politics in the 119th Congress while the process of counting every vote continues."

That echoes Jeffries' statement earlier today noting Democrats have a theoretical chance to retake the House if uncalled races in California and Arizona go their way.
Many Democrats are pessimistic about their party's chances of winning control of the chamber.

Reps. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) and Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) have signaled plans to run for Democratic caucus vice chair Ted Lieu's (D-Calif.) spot should Democrats gain control and Lieu jumps up to caucus chair.

Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) has floated running to replace Jacobs as the leadership representative for members who have served five terms or less in that scenario.