Sequoia Capital's Roelof Botha last year argued that venture capital isn't an "asset class."

• Thank goodness. Because, as an asset class, venture capital has been a failure.

The big picture: Public equity investment outperformed median venture capital performance over the past 25 years, according to benchmark data compiled through Q3 2025 by Cambridge Associates and obtained by Axios.

• Public equity also outperformed venture capital (net of fees) over the one-year, three-year, five-year, and 10-year time frames.

Zoom in: The outperformance wasn't just true for the S&P 500, but also of the broader Russell 3000.

• Venture capital beat the S&P 500 in the 15 and 20-year periods, but by fewer than 100 basis points in both cases (i.e., less than the desired illiquidity premium).
• Venture capital did top that 100 basis point threshold when marked against the Russell 3000 for 20 years, although just barely.
• U.S. venture capital performed better — albeit below the Nasdaq composite for all time periods — but median DPI for U.S. venture capital is below 1x for every vintage year since 2015 and averaged just 1.52x over the prior decade. It didn't hit 2x or higher in any vintage year going back to 2000.
• The data is inconclusive when it comes to stage, as early, late, and multi-stage funds outperform and underperform each other in numerous time periods.

Why it matters: The White House is enabling 401(k) plans to flood the VC market with new money, in what an investor told me should be viewed as a story of hope over experience.

Yes, but: Venture evangelists (read: apologists) would argue that median returns aren't the applicable metric. We need to look at top-quartile returns.

• And it's true that these are much better, although even here the DPI figures are disappointing. For example, you must go back to the 2014 vintage to find DPI of 2x or higher for both U.S. or global.
• The sort of returns that retail investors dream of is only really found in the top 5% of performers, but it's unlikely that much new money will be able to access those funds (or that their fiduciaries will be able to identify them).

The bottom line: Venture capital remains the financial engine of innovation. It's just hasn't been a great investment.

Thoma Bravo agreed to acquire Dallas-based logistics firm WWEX Group, the parent company of Worldwide Express, for around $5 billion.

• It then will merge WWEX with existing portfolio company Auctane (fka Stamps.com).

Why it's the BFD: Software-focused private equity firms see the AI anvil hanging over their heads, which means we're likely to see lots of creative combinations.

Zoom in: WWEX currently is owned by a group of PE firms that will roll over some of their positions: CVC Capital, Partners, Providence Equity Partners, PSG, and Ridgemont Equity Partners.

The bottom line: "The transaction allows Thoma Bravo to bring together the two Texas-based logistics and shipping technology companies at a time when artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the sector, helping firms cut costs by automating warehouse and back-office tasks while sharpening demand forecasts." — Ryan Gould, Bloomberg

• Reflection AI, a superintelligence startup led by a pair of ex-DeepMind researchers, is in talks to raise $2b at a $20b valuation, per the FT. axios.link/4rQjS9E

• Ayar Labs, a San Jose, Calif., provider of optical interconnect solutions for large-scale AI workloads, raised $500m in Series E funding. Neuberger Berman led, joined by Alchip Technologies, ARK Invest, Insight Partners, MediaTek, QIA, Sequoia Global Equities, 1789 Capital, Advent Global Opportunities, Boardman Bay Capital Management, IAG Capital Partners, Light Street Capital, Playground Global, AMD Ventures, and Nvidia. axios.link/4snCBsZ

🚑 Grow Therapy, an NYC-based mental health startup, raised $150m in Series D funding at a $3b valuation. TCG and Goldman Sachs Alternatives led, joined by Menlo Ventures, BCI, Sequoia Capital, SignalFire, and Transformation Capital. axios.link/4cVIMQm

• Flink, a German quick-commerce startup, raised $100m. Prosus led, joined by Btomorrow Ventures. axios.link/4aNs5Fz

🌎 Gropyus, an Austrian robotic maker of home building supplies, raised €100m from Vonovia and Semapa Next. axios.link/4skm48X

🚑 QL Biopharm, a Chinese obesity biotech, raised $72m in Series C funding. OrbiMed led, joined by Qiming Venture Partners, Five Sources Capital, Xingze Capital, Huagai Capital, Taifu Capital, BlueRun Ventures, and Taiyu Investment. axios.link/3MZgbzd

• Temple, an Indian wearables startup founded by ex-Zomato CEO Deepinder Goyal, raised $54m at an over $190m valuation. Goyal led, joined by Steadview Capital, Peak XV Partners, InfoEdge Ventures, and Dharana Capital. axios.link/4raCakO

• Guild.ai, a startup helping companies develop AI agents, raised $44m in seed and Series A funding, per Axios Pro. GV led both rounds, while other backers include Khosla Ventures, Acrew Capital, NfX, Scribble Ventures, and Webb Investment Network. axios.link/4l2XaIB

🚑 Ease Health, an NYC-based maker of software for behavioral health providers, raised $41m in Series A funding led by a16z. axios.link/3OCGs73

• Smack Technologies, an El Segundo, Calif.-based AI lab for national security, raised $32m in Series A funding. Geodesic Capital and Costanoa Ventures led, joined by Point72 Ventures, Felicis, First In, Scribble Ventures, Bloomberg Beta, Washington Harbour Partners, Palumni VC, Fulcrum Venture Group, Anomaly Fund, and Fortitude Ventures. axios.link/4sikZi3

🚑 KeyCare, a Chicago-based telehealth startup, raised $20.9m in a Series A2 funding, per Axios Pro. HealthX Ventures led, joined by 8VC, LRVHealth, Bold Capital Partners, and Ikigai Venture Partners. axios.link/4rbsDK1

• Firmable, an Australian AI sales platform, raised A$14m in Series A funding led by Airtree. axios.link/4cUrkvA

🚑 Antiverse, a Wales-based AI biotech focused on antibodies, raised $9.3m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Soulmates Ventures led, joined by Innovation Investment Capital, DOMiNO Ventures, DBW, Kadmos Capital, and i&i Biotech Fund. axios.link/4rIZKWL

• Pluvo, a Canadian financial analysis platform for CFOs, raised US$5m in seed round from a16z, Deel, The Perseverance Fund, StandUp Ventures, and AltaIR Capital. axios.link/4rFHptL

• Vento Games, a Turkish mobile games studio, raised $4m in seed funding led by Makers Fund and Arcadia Gaming Partners. ventogames.com

• Plurio, an SF-based digital advertising startup, raised $3.5m in seed funding from Altair, DVC, and Yellow Rocks. axios.link/4rbOfWX

• 14.ai, an automated customer support startup, raised $3m in seed funding. YC led, joined by General Catalyst, Base Case Capital, and SV Angel. axios.link/4l15Jng

• Payr, a U.K. credit card rent payments startup, raised $2.1m led by Ingenii Capital, with participation from Haatch, Velocity Capital and the British Business Bank. axios.link/40pV8cl

• 360training, a portfolio company of GreyLion and Vestar Capital Partners, acquired the assets of Canadian Food Safety Group, including its course content and certification programs. axios.link/4r9cMvE

• Accel-KKR acquired a majority stake in Whip Around, a provider of fleet maintenance and compliance software. axios.link/4aOvXGc

• Axel Springer, the German media company backed by KKR, acquired Bisnow, a commercial real estate media and events company from The Wicks Group. axios.link/4r62n3W

⚡ Allianz Global Investors acquired a 50% stake in nearly a dozen German battery projects from TotalEnergies (Paris: TTEF). axios.link/4cpcDRc

• Blackstone and Tinicum made a takeover offer for U.K. aerospace engineering firm Senior (LSE: SNR), which previously received a bid from Advent International. axios.link/3MEFFBV

• Concord, backed by GTCR, acquired Finley Technologies, an SF-based provider of credit facility management software. axios.link/4si7NK1

• CRC Group acquired Euclid Transactional, an NYC-based transactional insurance provider, from Searchlight Capital Partners. CRC backers are CD&R, Mubadala, and Stone Point Capital. axios.link/4rFMrX8

• David Lloyd Leisure, backed by TDR Capital, acquired London-based health club operator Aspria. axios.link/4aXtmIL

• Gemspring Capital made a follow-up investment in Sitemetric, a Houston-based provider of construction site security, access, and workforce software. axios.link/4cnRfvI

• New State Capital Partners acquired Vast Coworking Group, a coworking company with over 200 locations. axios.link/4rGwksk

• Northlane Capital Partners invested in File & ServeXpress, a provider of online legal document exchange and related services. axios.link/47fZDJZ

• Resurgens Technology Partners invested in Breezeway, a Boston-based operations platform for vacation rentals. axios.link/4rGI5is

⚡ Sandbrook Capital completed its acquisition of United Utility, a New Orleans provider of electric utility infrastructure services, from Boyne Capital. axios.link/4qhJpHp

• Scarlet Security & Risk Group, a Trilogy Capital portfolio company, acquired Elite Residential Concierge, a Canadian provider of residential concierge and security services. axios.link/46CKCSl

• Tilleghem acquired a stake in Belgian management consultancy Nova Reperta from Ardian. axios.link/4smaESn

⚡ Waterland Private Equity agreed to acquire Cooper Turner Beck, a U.K.-based provider of fastening solutions to the energy market, from Watermill Group. axios.link/40FcRfL

• Mercator Acquisition, the fifth SPAC formed by Hondius Capital Management, filed for a $250m IPO. axios.link/4aYZfRn

• PayPay, a Japanese payments app controlled by SoftBank, set IPO terms to 55m shares at $17-$20. It would have a $12.4b market cap, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (PAYP). axios.link/403qhSD

• Lone Star Funds completed its sale of SPX Flow, a Charlotte, N.C.-based provider of industrial processing solutions, to ITT (NYSE: ITT) for $4.78b in cash and stock. axios.link/3XyJGJV

• Accenture (NYSE: ACN) agreed to acquire Ookla, a Seattle-based provider of network intelligence and benchmarking analytics, from Ziff Davis (Nasdaq: ZD) for $1.2b in cash. axios.link/40EyHQr

• Alba, a Bahrain-based industrial group, is in talks to buy France-based Aluminium Dunkerque, which is Europe's largest aluminum smelter. axios.link/4u5vYNq

• Matt Auran joined Vanara Capital as a partner and head of IR. He previously was with Adams Street Partners. axios.link/4soOCyo

• Payton Brooks joined Cliffwater as a managing director. He previously was with Future Standard and Portfolio Advisors. axios.link/4aMbsdp

• Emerald Lake promoted Stephen Burhenn and Joe DeJean to partners and Sourabh Bhat and Derrick Lee to principals. axios.link/3NcyUav

⚡ Gary Lembert, former CEO of Competitive Power Ventures, joined ArcLight as a senior advisor focused on AI-related infrastructure. axios.link/4u5oryn

• Leland Lockhart joined Great Hill Partners as head of AI. He previously was with Vista Equity Partners. axios.link/4r1oLvb

• Shant Mardirossian joined Littlejohn & Co. as COO, head of strategic initiatives, and a managing director. He previously spent over 30 years with Kohlberg & Co. axios.link/4rKbw3b

• Oakley Capital promoted Alessandro Celli, Konstantin Synetos, Lovis von Andrian and Mike Mutsaers to partners, and Cristina Popescu, Peter Kisenyi and Alessandro Costamagna to managing directors. oakleycapital.com

Medline's private equity backers are seeking to sell 75 million shares in the Illinois-based medical supplies firm, at a significant premium to last year's blockbuster IPO, per a new regulatory filing.

Catch up quick: Medline went public in December, raising $6.26 billion by pricing at $29 per share. It was the largest U.S. IPO since Rivian in 2021.

Driving the news: Sellers into the secondary offering would include Blackstone, Carlyle, Hellman & Friedman, and ADIA.

• At yesterday's closing price, the deal would fetch around $3.44 billion.