Private markets have a history of following public markets, with a lag.

• We might be in the midst of that lag.

Driving the news: U.S. tech stocks lost trillions of dollars yesterday, with the Nasdaq Composite suffering its worst percentage decline since President Trump unveiled his "Liberation Day" tariffs.

• A lot of fingers were understandably pointed at the midterm results, given how many Democrats want to slow data center construction and take other measures that could curb AI growth.
• But, to be honest, no one really knows what happened yesterday. Stocks rallied on Wednesday — when the blue tsunami was known — and the Nasdaq is rebounding this morning.

The big picture: What's more important than this week is this year.

• The Nasdaq is up around 6% year-to-date and down more than 4% over the past six months.
• Does that even sort of track what you're seeing in skyrocketing private tech company valuations? Obviously it's not apples-to-apples — particularly when looking at high-growth startups — but the directions should track. At least eventually (i.e., the lag).

Zoom in: An irony is that many Americans just voted against AI acceleration at a time when their financial exposure is about to increase.

• Alternative investments like private equity and private credit are heading for 401(k)s and, to a much lesser impact, "Trump Accounts" may get stuffed with donated tech stocks.

Look ahead: The question for private market investors is if they believe past is precedent, or if they bet that this time is different, because AI is a more transformational technology than almost any that has come before it.

• One big bellwether should be the Anthropic IPO, whose roadshow is likely to begin in a week or so. If it cuts back its lofty valuation expectations, investors might gain courage in deal negotiations.

General Mills (NYSE: GIS) is weighing a separation of its Häagen-Dazs ice-cream business outside of North America, possibly setting it up for a sale, per the WSJ.

Why it's the BFD: This would be the third global food group to split off ice cream assets, which can be seasonal and have different shipping requirements than do many other packaged foods.

The bottom line: "Froneri, owned by private-equity firm PAI Partners, Nestlé, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, operates Häagen-Dazs in the U.S. That could make it a logical buyer for the General Mills business." — Aimee Look & Ben Dummett, WSJ

• Shield AI, a San Diego-based developer of military drone tech, raised $1b in Series H funding. Disruptive and Innovation X Capital led, joined by Advent, JPMorganChase's Security and Resiliency Initiative, Snowpoint Ventures, Apandion, and Center15 Capital.

• It also secured a $1b structured equity investment from Blackstone and $500 million in debt led by JPMorgan, and agreed to buy radar provider Echodyne for $5.3b.
• Echodyne had raised around $200m from Baillie Gifford, Northrop Grumman, Vulcan Capital Management, Cercano Management, NEA, Vanedge Capital, and Madrona Venture Group. axios.link/4AkoLf4

🚀 CesiumAstro, an Austin, Texas-based developer of space and defense communications systems and satellites, raised $730m in Series D funding at a $4.5b post-money valuation. Janus Henderson led, joined by Insight Partners, Sands Capital, Sumitomo Corporation of Americas, Woven Capital — Toyota's Growth Fund, Magnetar, and NewSpace Capital. The company also secured $100m in debt from EXIM and JPMorgan. axios.link/4sP5QGI

• Harbinger, a Garden Grove, Calif.-based EV truckmaker, raised $240m in Series D funding. Tiger Global, Capricorn and Ridgeline led, joined by FedEx, Fidelity, Squarepoint Capital, Xantium, Maniv, Greycroft, Australian Gulf Capital, PanaceaVC, ArcTern Ventures, Leitmotif, TechNexus, and BuildGroup. axios.link/4z7fFRQ

• Future Secure AI, an Australian provider of AI coworkers for complex business processes, raised US$82m from Square Peg, Yarra Capital Management, Firetrail, and insider Macquarie Asset Management. axios.link/4kH4MCm

• Kalepa, an AI-powered insurance startup, raised $75m in Series B funding at a $470m valuation. Updata Partners led, joined by IA Ventures and Inspired Capital. axios.link/4emv5Kh

• Humble Robotics, an SF-based developer of autonomous electric freight trucks, raised $51m in Series A funding. Obvious Ventures led, joined by Eclipse and EIP. axios.link/4iCKqrt

🚑 Anaheim Bio, a Dutch arthritis biotech, raised €40m in Series A funding from Droia Ventures, Frazier Life Sciences, RTW, Novartis Venture Fund, RV Invest, and Thuja Capital. axios.link/4A9CGEn

⚡ RadianX, a Redwood City, Calif.-based maker of perovskite solar modules for edge energy, raised $9m in seed equity and project financing. The seed round was led by SOSV and Twynam. axios.link/4iHpGPv

⚡ Vensum Power, a Finnish developer of power conversion tech, raised €9m in Series A funding from Lifeline Ventures, Larsen & Toubro Group and Eviny Ventures. axios.link/4eeJdFy

⚡ Nyquis, an SF-based maker of continuous monitoring systems for the electrical grid, raised $6.3m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Gigascale Capital and South Park Commons led, joined by Allison Pickens Ventures, Friale, Sovereign's Capital, Pioneer Fund, Script Capital, and Lost Coast Ventures. axios.link/4z70msi

• Claimlane, a Copenhagen-based aftersales product resolution platform, raised €5.6m in Series A funding. Verb Ventures led, joined by Skagerak Capital and Vendep Capital. axios.link/4eUHdCv

• Cowboy, an app store for AI, raised $5m in seed funding from Nebular, Compound, Semantic Ventures, Anagram, Shine Ventures, and Uncommon Projects. axios.link/4BJL9jp

• Lombard Systems, a provider of financing infrastructure for tokenized assets, raised $4m in pre-seed and seed funding. Ethereal Ventures led, joined by Alps Capital, First Commit Capital, Veris Ventures, and Atka. axios.link/4elOLy0

🚑 AnewHealth, a Valley View, Ohio-based provider of pharmacy solutions for people with complex medical needs, secured new funding from Linden Capital Partners and insider Nautic Partners. Sellers include Vistria Group. axios.link/3UdFGR6

🚑 Bertram Capital agreed to acquire Medical Technology Associates, a Pinellas Park, Fla.-based medical equipment servicer, from Riverarch Equity Partners for $400m to $450m, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4iC75nA

🚑 Curewell Capital agreed to acquire a majority stake in ECA Medical, a Thousand Oaks, Calif.-based manufacturer of single-use instruments and surgery-ready solutions, from LongueVue Capital. axios.link/4iy9Q9x

⚡️ Levine Leichtman Capital Partners made a growth investment in Concentric Energy Advisors, a Marlborough, Mass.-based consulting and advisory firm serving the North American utility and energy industry. axios.link/4z6kr1R

• Onyx Partners acquired Floridian furniture retailer Kane's Furniture. axios.link/3V3sBdk

• Permira acquired Flint Group, a Kansas City, Mo.-based home services firm, from General Atlantic. axios.link/4sFGDy8

• Pfingsten acquired Runyon Surface Prep, a Carmel, Ind.-based distributor of consumables and equipment for concrete surface preparation, polishing, and resinous flooring applications. axios.link/4iAREMK

• The Riverside Co. acquired Hoover Circular Solutions, a Houston-based reusable packaging rental firm, from First Reserve. axios.link/3VdnQOp

🎮 Silver Lake and Saudi Arabia's PIF have held talks to acquire Unity Software (NYSE: U), a game engine with a $22b market cap, per Reuters. axios.link/4k1hcF0

• Snowhawk Partners invested in Telarus, a Sandy, Utah-based technology services distributor. axios.link/4kBSBqt

• Transom Capital Group agreed to buy the Cree LED business of Penguin Solutions (Nasdaq: PENG). axios.link/4sRiK72

🚑 VisiQuate, backed by Accel-KKR, acquired enterprise workflow platform Artiva HCx from Finvi. axios.link/4zn0ap3

• Kartoon Studios Acquisition, a children's media and entertainment SPAC formed by Kartoon Studios, filed for a $300m IPO. axios.link/4BFp59r

• Nota, a Japanese luxury villa operator backed by Hillhouse, is seeking to raise around $152m in its Tokyo IPO. axios.link/4z1CVR6

🚑 Rezera, a Boston-based biotech focused on inflammatory diseases, set IPO terms to 16.7m shares at $11-$13. It would have a $254m fully diluted valuation at the midpoint, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (RZRA). The Phase 3 biotech has raised $150m from firms like Novo Holdings, Blue Owl, 5AM Ventures, F-Prime, Epidarex Capital, and Sofinnova Capital. axios.link/4jZ2zSL

• Agility Robotics, a Salem, Ore.-based maker of humanoid robots for warehouses and factories, completed its reverse merger with Churchill Capital Corp. XI (Nasdaq: CCXI), a SPAC led by Michael Klein. Agility had raised around $680m from VC firms like Playground Global, DCVC, SoftBank, WP Global Partners, Kirra Capital, Palo Alto Capital, Amazon, and Gaingels. axios.link/4BIP0gw

• Dropbox (Nasdaq: DBX) agreed to acquire Tigris Data, a Sunnyvale, Calif.-based localized data storage startup, for $350m. Tigris had raised $40m from Spark Capital, a16z, General Catalyst, and Materialized View Capital. axios.link/4iYZLnr

• Interlock Equity sold Lovelytics, an Arlington, Va.-based data and AI consultancy, to CDW (Nasdaq: CDW) for $525m. axios.link/4eOEDOk

• PAI Partners and ICG agreed to sell StellaGroup, a French provider of window closure and outdoor solar protection solutions, to VKR Holding. axios.link/4iIMnCP

• Palo Alto Networks (Nasdaq: PANW) is in talks to acquire Clutch, an Israeli non-human identity security startup, for $500m in cash, per TechCrunch. Clutch has raised $28m from SignalFire, Merlin Ventures, Lightspeed, and The Westly Group. axios.link/4BNgGkg

• The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) is in talks to buy Letterboxd, an online platform for movie lovers, from Tiny Capital for around $330m, per the NYT. axios.link/4sGIl2g

• Enhanced Group (NYSE: ENHA) agreed to acquire a 77% stake in DEAG Deutsche Entertainment, a listed German live entertainment and ticketing company, for around $89m. axios.link/48GMhXv

• The German government agreed to buy a 50% stake in German tankmaker KNDS from family investors for around €6.5b. axios.link/3UyQ2uX

• Sagard Private Equity raised €520m for its third fund-of-funds focused on emerging managers. axios.link/3WPZ6w2

• Armory Ventures promoted Anthony Santaro to principal. axios.link/4eOhFH6

• David Shields joined Transom Capital Group as EVP of operations and finance. He previously was CFO for Any Hour Group. axios.link/4yYtNfV

• Jason Spinell joined Collaborative Fund as a general partner. He previously was with Slack Fund. axios.link/3UA04M8

The U.S. economy added 165k jobs in October, crushing expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. The prior two months also were revised upwards by a combined 84k jobs. Go deeper.