Cleaning out the notebook as prep work continues for Axios BFD, next Tuesday in New York City.

😷 Contagion concerns: Anthropic's IPO is just a week away, and is suddenly trying to dodge Nvidia fallout.

• The macro is a possible unwind, or at least reorientation, of the AI trade. The micro is a myriad of financial and strategic ties between the two companies.
• Nvidia agreed to purchase around $10 billion of Anthropic shares via a $26 billion private placement concurrent to the IPO. That ties it with Google for the largest investor in that deal, and is in addition to a $10 billion funding commitment that Nvidia made to Anthropic late last year.
• Anthropic also has committed hundreds of billions of dollars to cloud computing deals for Nvidia GPUs, including with SpaceX, Microsoft, Nscale, and Lambda.
• On the upside, Jensen Huang was a very vocal cheerleader for open-source AI, so his ouster could give some boost to closed model makers like Anthropic.

There is no indication that Nvidia wouldn't make good on any of its pledges, and the Anthropic IPO is said to be oversubscribed (although we don't know at what price), but we're obviously in uncharted territory. And there's a new WSJ report suggesting that interim CEO Colette Kress was worried that Jensen ventured out over his skis on certain dealmaking.

• At the very least, Anthropic IPO investors should view the prospect of future mega-deals with Nvidia as hazy.

📺 Coming attractions: Maybe some of this will come up at noon ET today, when Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has a livestreamed conversation with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.

📰 The latest: Nvidia shares opened up about 2% this morning, which would put it close to early Tuesday trading levels — two days before Jensen resigned — and down around 11% from last Friday's open.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on CNBC this morning threw Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick under the bus, saying that Treasury, State, Defense, and USTR all wanted to put Megaspeed on the restricted entities list "for months, but Commerce has the pen."
• Not surprising, given the confrontation Axios recently reported between Bessent and Lutnick.
• There are bipartisan calls for Jensen and Lutnick to testify in front of the Senate during its lame duck session, with Lutnick having already agreed. New questions also are being raised as to how certain the U.S. government is that Alice Huang was a spy, and who might have leaked the classified State Department memo to that effect.
• Again, this could become as much a political scandal as a business one.

🇯🇵 Eastern horizon: Last year we wondered if Japan's election of Sanae Takaichi as prime minister would cool the country's dealmaking boom.

• The early verdict is that it has, but only slightly.
• Japan M&A activity is around $140 billion year-to-date, down 32% from this point in 2025. But that's still blowing away the prior 15 years, only one of which (2020) even breached the $100 billion mark YTD.
• Most of the decline has come domestically and strategically, as cross-border M&A is only down 9% and PE-backed M&A is down 15%.

Blackstone Life Sciences has agreed to pay Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) up to $1.5 billion to finance development of a monthly GLP-1 receptor agonist.

Why it's the BFD: Blackstone has become something akin to a biotech bank, helping offset drug development costs for Pfizer, Apogee, Alnylam, Boston Scientific, J&J, Merck, and Moderna.

• It's a reversal of the industry's historical relationship between public and private markets — whereby private investors usually back biotech startups and then sell to Big Pharma once it comes time to run expensive Phase 2/3 clinical trials.

Zoom in: The investigational drug candidate is called berobenatide, and was acquired by Pfizer via last year's $9.8 billion takeover of Metsera.

• It could help Pfizer better compete with Eli Lilly and Novo in the booming weight management market.
• Blackstone's funding commitment runs through 2028, and the firm is eligible for earnouts based on U.S. regulatory approval and commercial sales milestones.

The bottom line: "Pfizer has handed a large part of its obesity research bill to an outside investor .... What [Blackstone] gains is a return stream tied to drug risk, which does not move with buyouts or real estate." — Omor Ibne Ehsan, 24/7 Wall St

• Mirendil, an SF-based frontier lab, raised $1b in Series A funding. Kleiner Perkins and Clearlake Capital led, joined by Battery Ventures, Doerr Capital, Gil & Co, Google, M13, Pear VC, and S32. axios.link/4BWj2gU

• LangChain, an SF-based AI agent engineering platform, raised $300m at a $3b post-money valuation. CapitalG led, joined by GIC, DFJ Growth and insiders IVP and Sapphire Ventures. axios.link/3UTTlNc

• Databento, a finance market data platform, raised $100m in Series C funding at a $1.1b valuation. Fifth Down Capital led, joined by insiders NEA, DRW Venture Capital, Tribe Capital, and Hedosophia. axios.link/4zfltsc

🚑 Eli Radiopharma, a Chinese biotech focused on oncology and neurological diseases, raised $60m in Series A funding. Huagai Capital and Bayland Capital led, joined by Boyu Ventures, Delian Capital, InnoPinnacle Fund, Haibang Venture, Bairui Capital, Shenzhen Angel FOF Management, Grand Flight Investment, CSPC & Growth Bio Fund, Huaige Capital, KHK Fund, Longfeng Venture, Hongsheng Capital, Bioclub Fund, and Skyfield Capital. axios.link/4zeMegv

• Mount Thor, a Mill Valley, Calif.-based provider of managed Apple infrastructure for AI research and deployment, raised $45m in seed and Series A funding. CRV and Conviction led the Series A while Chad Byers and Offline Ventures led the seed. Other backers include CSC Leasing, Enea Capital, Long Journey Ventures, and Upper90. axios.link/3ULuD1J

• Kindo, an AI agent management platform, raised $30m led by Crosspoint Capital and Forgepoint Capital. axios.link/4zhur8w

🚑 Nanopath, a Cambridge, Mass.-based developer of molecular diagnostics, raised $25m in Series B funding. Norwest and SV Health Investors led, joined by Labcorp Venture Fund and Elderberry Ventures. axios.link/4zDYKHn

🚑 XpertDox, a Scottsdale, Ariz.-based medical coding automator, raised $20m from Kennet Partners. axios.link/4sUJDad

• Clawlab, a Chinese smart textile tool developer, raised over $15m. miHoYo led, joined by insiders Vision Plus Capital and Shunwei Capital. axios.link/4kMOhor

• Tristar AI, a Cambridge, Mass.-based intelligence layer for the factory floor, raised $12.4m in Series A funding. Isogon Ventures led, joined by Blackhorn Ventures, Ford Street Ventures, ISAI Cap Venture, Capgemini's VC Fund, Las Olas VC, NextView Ventures, Seraph Partners, SNR Ventures, and TenOneTen. axios.link/4esijtY

• Athlete To Athlete, a mentorship platform connecting youth athletes with current college athletes, raised $8m in Series A funding. Rally Ventures led, joined by Newbound VC, Scrum Ventures, and UpHonest Capital. axios.link/4iyQoLe

🚑 Akara, an LA-based physical AI platform for hospitals, raised $5.5m from VTC Ventures, EIC Fund, CommonKind, NovaVector Holdings, ACT, Atlantic Bridge, and Enterprise Ireland. axios.link/3UzHPqq

🚑 Kardi Ai, a Czech heart monitoring medtech, raised €5.3m in Series A funding. Callisto Health led, joined by Česká spořitelna, Slovenská sporiteľňa, BrightCap Ventures, Purple Ventures, DEPO Ventures, and Garage Angels. axios.link/4iOkOI3

• Twin1 AI, a developer of digital twins to automate communications, raised $5m in seed extension funding led by Curql. axios.link/4sYqAf8

🚑 Triplemoon, a Dallas-based virtual behavioral health care provider, raised a $4m seed extension led by LiveOak Venture Partners and Activate Venture Partners. axios.link/4Cf2AIW

• Mondrio, an SF-based agentic B2B pricing management platform, raised $3.75m. Heartcore Capital led, joined by Pretiosum VC, Hersir Ventures, Cambrena Capital, and Momo VC. axios.link/3WFR7Sh

• Opdo, an LA-based optical engineering company, raised $2.3m in pre-seed funding. Angular Ventures led, joined by Inflection and Tiny.vc. axios.link/4t2PdaE

• BDT & MSD Partners made a minority investment in Ambient, a collective of commercial HVAC design and implementation experts. axios.link/4AsWlQ2

• Bluestone Equity Partners acquired a majority stake in 11th St. Workshop, a Jersey City, N.J.-based maker of custom environments for live events, brand campaigns, and retail spaces. axios.link/4iE5i2X

• BlueMatrix, backed by Thoma Bravo, acquired Aiera, an NYC-based content delivery platform that had raised about $47m from firms including Fin Capital and Flybridge Capital Partners. axios.link/4zlQzyy

• Branford Castle Partners acquired Floratine, a Collierville, Tenn.-based provider of plant-nutrition products for golf courses, sports turf, and agriculture. axios.link/4zSzFIX

• GenNx360 Capital Partners invested in DRT Aerospace, a West Chester, Ohio-based maker of machined components for the aerospace, defense, space, and industrial gas turbine markets. axios.link/4iNlYUj

• Genesee & Wyoming, a short-line railroad backed by Brookfield and GIC, plans to split into three regional companies. Axios Pro flashback

• Norvestor acquired Jets Group, a Norwegian provider of vacuum sanitation technology, from Stokke Industri and the Øvsthus family. axios.link/4iAiWnC

⚡ Oaktree Capital Management agreed to buy Spain's Guascor Energy from Mutares for €74m. axios.link/3UN0Ky3

• SmartTrade, backed by TA Associates, acquired Celoxica, a London-based execution infrastructure provider. axios.link/4eRdGd9

🐟 Sound Growth Partners acquired Frontier Packaging, a Tukwila, Wash.-based provider of packaging and supplies to the seafood processing industry in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. axios.link/4sSDn2t

⚡ Wollemi Capital and Rest, both of Australia, acquired a majority stake in Washington, D.C.-based solar developer Redball Energy. axios.link/4zjsd8M

🚑 Windward Bio Group, a Swiss developer of antibodies for respiratory and dermatologic diseases, raised $175m in its IPO. It priced in the middle of its $16-$18 range for a $1b fully diluted value, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (WWB). The Phase 2/3 biotech had raised $365m from OrbiMed, Novo Holdings, Blue Owl, SR One, Omega Funds, RTW Investments, Qiming Venture Partners, Quan Capital, Pivotal bioVenture Partners, RA Capital Management, Janus Henderson Investors, Sanofi Ventures, and Harbour BioMed. axios.link/3Xf5FbD

• Advent International revived a sale process for The Learning Lab, a Singaporean tutoring chain that could fetch between $400m and $500m, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4k8yLTH

• ThirdGen Timber Group, the parent of Canadian Timberframes, acquired four brands from PFB Custom Homes, a portfolio company of The Riverside Co. axios.link/4kegnZM

• Hancock Whitney (Nasdaq: HWC) agreed to buy rival Mississippi bank Trustmark (Nasdaq: TRMK) for $3.2b in stock. axios.link/4AlAWYI

• Installed Building Products (NYSE: IBP) acquired Old Dominion Group, a Midlothian, Va.-based mechanical and industrial insulation installer, for $698m in cash and stock. axios.link/4etfVmI

• Samsung Electronics is in talks to acquire Modine Manufacturing (NYSE: MOD), per Bloomberg. Modine is a Racine, Wis.-based maker of cooling systems for data centers with a $5.6b market cap. axios.link/4znQ9b5

• Intera Partners of Finland raised €450m for its fifth fund. axios.link/4Augjd4

• Greycroft promoted Conor Deveney to partner. axios.link/4kOAPjW

🌎 Bill Nussey joined Cox Enterprises as SVP of cleantech. He was previously a partner at Tech Square Ventures. axios.link/4BRfZqe

Go deeper: Jensen's exit roils stocks in Nvidia's orbit