Some of private equity's biggest bigs are warning that their industry will consolidate, as some firms die of distribution thirst.

Why it matters: Such a scenario is entirely predictable — we've been discussing it here for more than a year — but finally seems to have taken root in the PE psyche.

Driving the news: KKR CFO Robert Lewin and Apollo president Jim Zelter issued the alarms earlier this week, in separate speeches at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference.

• "You're going to see a number of GPs that are going to shrink in size, and some materially so," Lewin argued. "And given that they've got relatively high fixed cost bases, you could see some of those firms go away altogether. So I think organically you're going to see a fair bit of GP consolidation over the next five years."
• Zelter said: "I think there's many, many PE funds that are out there that have raised their most recent fund and don't realize it's their last fund," adding that he doesn't "expect a massive monetization cycle to hit."

Zoom in: Neither man predicted doom or shrinkage for their own firms.

• This may read like denial, but it's not.
• The big are likely to keep getting bigger, as they can afford to offer new products to limited partners that are seeking to limit their number of GP relationships. Some of this also may come inorganically, via big firms buying smaller ones.
• Expect that same dynamic to play out in venture capital.

The bottom line: Private equity dollars will continue to grow. The number of private equity firms, however, may be another story.

LB Pharmaceuticals, a New York-based biotech focused on neuropsychiatric diseases like acute schizophrenia, raised $285 million in its IPO.

Why it's the BFD: This is the first major biopharma IPO since February, the longest such drought in 15 years.

By the numbers: LB sold 19 million shares at $15 each, versus plans to offer 16.7 million shares at $14 to $16 per share.

• It had raised over $135 million in VC funding, but had just $14 million in cash left at the end of June.
• Backers include Deep Track Capital, Vida Ventures, Pontifax, and TCG, but had just $14 million of cash left at the end of June.

The bottom line: LB's lead oral drug candidate is a derivative of amisulpride, a decades-old dopamine inhibitor that's approved in 50 countries outside the U.S. The company expects to begin Phase 3 trials early next year.

Please take a moment to remember the thousands of people murdered 24 years ago this morning.

• Among them were private equity investors Dave Retik and Chris Mello, both of whom worked at Alta Communications and were on American Airlines Flight 11.
• The foundation established in their names has since awarded $3.5 million in grants to more than 45 nonprofit organizations, plus dozens of scholarships.

• Replit, a SF-based development environment, raised $250m at a $3b valuation. Prysm Capital led, joined by Google's AI Futures Fund, Amex Ventures, a16z, and Coatue. axios.link/46dBnab

• Perplexity, an AI search startup, raised $200m at a $20b valuation, per The Information. axios.link/41OAxzl

🚑 Odyssey Therapeutics, a Boston-based biotech focused on autoimmune disorders and inflammation, raised $213m Series D funding from Affinity Asset Advisors, Dimension Capital, Jeito Capital, Lightspeed Ventures, TPG Life Sciences Innovations, and Wedbush Healthcare Partners. axios.link/3Ibp9aa

• Nitricity, an SF-based organic fertilizer maker, raised $50m in Series B funding. World Fund and Khosla Ventures led, joined by Chipotle's Cultivate Next, Change Forces, Susquehanna Sustainable Investments, Energy Impact Partners, and Fine Structure Ventures. axios.link/4mYFJcA

🚑 NRG Therapeutics, a British neurology drug developer, raised £50m in Series B funding. Health Investors' Dementia Discovery Fund led, joined by British Business Bank, M Ventures, Novartis Venture Fund, Criteria Bio Ventures, Omega Funds, and Brandon Capital. axios.link/4mVxIF0

• Koi, a Charlotte, N.C.-based endpoint security startup, raised $38m in Series A funding from Battery Ventures, Team8, Picture Capital, NFX, and Cerca Partners. axios.link/46ohRIm

🚑 Noxilizer, a developer of nitrogen dioxide-based terminal sterilization for pharma and medical device products, raised $30m led by NewVale Capital. axios.link/3HVn8il

• Pest Share, an Idaho-based provider of pest control software, raised $28m in Series A funding. Integrity Growth Partners led, joined by MetaProp, Capital Eleven, and RE Angels. axios.link/46byJBO

🚑 Optain, a New York-based provider of eye-disease detection and cardiovascular-disease risk assessment, raised $26m in Series A funding. Insight Partners led, joined by Memorial Hermann, Northwell Health, Novant Health, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, and UPMC Enterprises. axios.link/4gf2ztK

• Spiral, a New York-based database startup, raised $22m in seed and Series A funding from General Catalyst and Amplify Partners, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4m9eD0Q

• Clockwork, an SF-based startup seeking to maximize AI workloads via GPU maximization, raised $20.6m led by insider NEA. axios.link/3IetTfb

• Born, a Berlin-based AI gaming startup, raised $15m in Series A funding from Accel and Tencent. axios.link/4nugQW4

• Blocks.diy, an Israeli platform for building custom work agents, raised $10m in seed funding. Monday.com led, joined by Qumra Capital and Entree Capital. axios.link/42rcpmy

• Tot, an Italian business platform for administrative and financial management, raised €7 led by CDP Venture Capital. axios.link/3VKbji4

• Klaar, an SF-based performance management startup, raised $5m in Series A funding led by Prime Venture Partners, with Shastra VC participating. axios.link/4mU3dPP

• LocusX a Canadian issue resolution engine for game and software developers, raised C$3m in seed funding led by Diagram and Triptyq. axios.link/47EngNI

• Rendezvous Robotics, an autonomous swarm assembly startup, raised $3m in pre-seed funding. Aurelia Foundy and 8090 Industries led, joined by ATX Venture Partners and Mana Ventures participating. axios.link/3I7gju8

• Aquarian is in exclusive talks to acquire life insurer Brighthouse Financial (Nasdaq: BHF), per Bloomberg. axios.link/41Oz7VA

• Caliber Collision, a Hellman & Friedman portfolio company, acquired Car Body Lab, a mobile auto body repair company. axios.link/461FTd2

• Carlyle, EQT, HSC Group, and Boyu Capital each are prepping final bids for a control stake in Starbucks' China unit, per Reuters. axios.link/4gscLiQ

• Cinven agreed to acquire a "significant" stake in auditor Grant Thornton Germany. axios.link/4nrZ3ie

• e-PlanSoft, an Irvine, Calif.-based provider of electronic plan review software, secured growth capital from ParkerGale. axios.link/4njsVNw

• Hudson Glade and New State Capital Partners acquired ComNet Communications, a Bethel, Conn.-based provider of low-voltage infrastructure solutions. comnetcomm.com

🚑 GTCR agreed to buy Prague-based generic drugmaker Zentiva from Advent International for €4.1b. axios.link/3VI6SEn

• GTCR also completed its buyout of FMG Suite, a provider of marketing automation software for financial advisors and insurance brokers, from Aurora Capital Partners.

• Industrial Opportunity Partners acquired Charcuterie Artisans, a Salt Lake City-based charcuterie group whose brands include Creminelli Fine Meats and Daniele. axios.link/3VdXIiV

🍕 MBC Cos., a portfolio company of Entrepreneurial Equity Partners, acquired Alpha Foods, a Waller, Texas-based frozen pizza maker. alphafoodsco.com

• Platinum Equity agreed to acquire XD Connects, a Dutch provider of corporate gifts and custom-branded merchandise, from Rivean Capital. axios.link/3VcrYKX

• Purgo Holdings, a portfolio company of Wincove, acquired Puroflux, a Simi Valley, Calif.-based maker of industrial and commercial water filtration and control systems, from Montage Partners. axios.link/4nu2mWc

🚑 Siemens Healthineers is speaking with big PE firms about selling its diagnostics unit, which could fetch more than €6b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3VLuwjm

⚡Torus, a Salt Lake City-based distributed power plant platform, raised $200m from Magnetar. axios.link/4np5CSt

• Vantage Data Centers of Denver raised $1.6b led by insiders ADIA and GIC. Other existing backers include DigitalBridge and Silver Lake. axios.link/3Vflefo

• Vector Capital Management agreed to acquire SingleStore, an SF-based data platform for enterprise AI that's raised over $580m from firms like Khosla Ventures, GV, Glynn Capital, Dell Technologies Capital, IA Ventures, DCVC, Insight Partners, Goldman Sachs, and Accel. axios.link/4nuCr0C

• Vista Equity Partners invested in Joblogic, a British provider of field service and facilities management software. axios.link/4p9uuPQ

• Windjammer Capital acquired both PDU Cables and Engineered Products Co., providers of power cable solutions for data centers. axios.link/4nrvMnQ

• Figure, a consumer lending platform, raised $787.5m in its IPO. It priced at $25 per share (above upwardly revised range), for a $5.3b initial market valuation, and will list on the Nasdaq (FIGR). The company had raised around $425m, most recently in 2021 at a $3.2b valuation, from backers like DST Global Partners, Ribbit Capital, DCM, and Morgan Creek Digital. axios.link/4pgK8sN

• Daedalus Special Acquisition, a consumer-facing AI and tech SPAC, filed for a $200m IPO. axios.link/3K0uLo6

• Meshflow Acquisition, a blockchain infrastructure SPAC, filed for a $300m IPO. axios.link/3JQ2Ib8

• Trailblazer Acquisition, a TMT SPAC, raised $240m in an upsized IPO. axios.link/4nFkoWp

• Pritzker Private Capital is seeking to sell cleaning products brand Sprayway, which generates around $30m in EBITDA, per Reuters. axios.link/4nugheQ

• Tega Industries of India agreed to buy control of Omaha-based mining equipment maker Molycop from American Industrial Partners at a $1.5b valuation. axios.link/46uYj66

• Lincoln International, a midmarket investment bank, agreed to buy insurance brokerage advisory MarshBerry. axios.link/3I3Qjjh

🚑 Nayya, a personalization platform for health benefits that's raised over $100m, agreed to acquire Northstar, a financial wellness benefits company. axios.link/3VHhYJN

• RaceTrac, an Atlanta-based convenience store operator, acquired Potbelly (Nasdaq: PBPB), a Chicago-based sandwich chain, for $566m. axios.link/42gu8Ny

• Aurora Capital Partners raised over $2.1b for its seventh flagship midmarket PE fund. auroracap.com

• Bain Capital and Lincoln Financial launched an evergreen private credit fund. axios.link/46aKk41

🚑 TVM Capital Healthcare held a first close on its $150m-targeted Southeast Asia fund. axios.link/46vzgQl

• Veritas Capital raised $14.4b for its ninth flagship fund focused on companies at the intersection of tech and government. axios.link/3KhcjYr

• Baird promoted Thomas Fetzer and Pat Guerin to co-heads of European investment banking. rwbaird.com

• Chris Golz (ex-Latticework Capital) and Rich Reuter (Garnett Station Partners) joined CenterOak Partners as CFO and managing director, respectively. centeroakpartners.com

• Patrick Hsu, co-founder of Arc Institute, joined Thrive Capital as a venture partner. axios.link/42kWHcF

• Josh Machiz joined Lightspeed Venture Partners as chief marketing officer, per Axios. He previously was with Redpoint Ventures. axios.link/4gidVND

• James Moloney, a partner at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, was named head of the SEC's division of corporation finance. axios.link/42iYhf6

The Consumer Price Index rose a hotter-than-expected 0.4% in August and 2.9% year-over-year, making the Fed's next rate decision even more complicated.

• Core CPI remained steady at 3.1% year-over-year.
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