Last week I wrote than an economic downturn could create upside for venture capital and private equity, particularly as a forcing mechanism on revaluations.

• While we wait for that to play out, another thought: Boy, did private market investors blow it.

VC and PE pros like to talk about how they aren't market timers, unlike those heathen hedge fund managers.

• But that's exactly what they've been for several years, waiting for "better conditions" before taking their companies public or actively seeking buyers. Cheered on by timid bankers who wouldn't risk a lemon in their sparse baskets.
• It was just such a ludicrous thing to say in the midst of a prolonged bull market for public equities.
• Sure, there were legit antitrust concerns. But anyone assuming that Trump's regulators would be much more lenient, or less capricious, wasn't really paying attention. Well, unless you're a crypto investor.

Today's economic warning signs and market declines aren't anywhere near as dire as they were five years ago — today's the anniversary of the NBA shutdown — but at least then we had expectations that Washington D.C. would (and could) ride to the short-term rescue.

• That's not too likely right now, particularly given that much of the tumult is coming from inside the house. What we might be left with is stagflation, which is the antithesis of "better conditions."

There are a handful of strong startups that have been planning first-half IPOs. This includes Hinge Health, which just flipped its S-1, and CoreWeave, which yesterday inked a giant strategic deal with OpenAI.

• Expect inertia to keep both processes moving forward, but that they'll seek to avoid pricing into extreme turbulence.

The bottom line: You can't cry over spilt milk. But you can shake your head at the obstinance that led to it.

Eric Schmidt has acquired a control stake in Relativity Space, a Long Beach, Calif.-based rocket maker, and taken over as CEO.

Why it's the BFD: This will be Schmidt's first CEO job since leaving Google's top post more than 14 years ago, and is a reminder of how fast the space industry can burn venture capital.

Zoom in: Sources say that Schmidt is basically recapping and refocusing Relativity, which has done a better job securing orders than delivering on them.

• No word on exactly how much Schmidt invested, or has committed to invest going forward, except that he now sits atop a preference stack of VCs who have written down their investments to either zero or nearly zero.
• Relativity had raised over $2 billion from such firms as Bond, Fidelity, Playground Global, and Social Capital, according to PitchBook.

The bottom line: Billionaires love to run in the space race.

🚑 Lila Sciences, a Cambridge, Mass.-based scientific superintelligence startup, raised $200m from Flagship Pioneering. axios.link/3XIDteJ

• Cartesia, an SF-based voice AI startup, raised $64m in Series A funding. Kleiner Perkins led, and was joined by Index Ventures, Lightspeed, A*, Factory, Greycroft, Dell Technologies Capital, and Samsung Ventures. axios.link/3FuOvhm

• Zolve, a neobank for people moving to the U.S., raised $51m in Series B equity funding (plus $200m in debt). Creaegis led, and was joined by HSBC, SBI, GMO, DG Daiwa, Accel, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Sparta Group, and DST Global. axios.link/3DlgxLR

• Sola Security, an Israeli self-serve cybersecurity platform, raised $30m in seed funding. S Capital and Mike Moritz co-led, and were joined by S32 and Gilot Capital Partners. axios.link/43DzUKC

🚑 Shoulder Innovations, a Grand Rapids, Mich., shoulder replacement technology startup, raised $40m in Series E funding. USVP led, and was joined by Gilde Healthcare Partners, Gilmartin Capital, Aperture Venture Partners, Arboretum Ventures, and Sectoral Asset Management. axios.link/3DxYRN1

• 360 Privacy, a Nashville, Tenn.-based digital executive protection platform, raised $36m from FTV Capital. 360privacy.io

• Infinite Uptime, an Indian provider of predictive maintenance solutions for factories, raised $35m in Series C funding. Avataar Ventures led, and was joined by StepStone Group, LGVP and insiders Tiger Global and GSR Ventures. axios.link/3FjdJiR

🌎 Capture6, a Berkeley, Calif., startup that cleans water and removes carbon, raised $27.5m in Series A funding led by Tetrad and project financing, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4iHvGWv

🚑 Lynx, a Boston-based provider of health-care payments and admin solutions, raised $27m in Series A funding. Flare Capital Partners led, and was joined by CVS Health Ventures, McKesson Ventures, .406 Ventures, Obvious Ventures, and Frist Cressey Ventures. axios.link/4gtTw6I

• Trust & Will, a San Diego-based digital estate planning platform, raised over $25m in Series C funding. Moderne Ventures led, and was joined by Northwestern Mutual Future Ventures, UBS Next, and Erie Strategic Ventures. trustandwill.com

⚡ DG Matrix, a Raleigh, N.C.-based maker of solid-state transformers for datacenters, raised $20m. Clean Energy Ventures led, and was joined by ABB, Cerberus Ventures, Chevron Technology Ventures; and Piedmont Capital. dgmatrix.com

• Tomo Mortgage, a Stamford, Conn.-based mortgage fintech, raised $20m in Series B funding from Ribbit Capital, DST Global, NFX, and Progressive Insurance. axios.link/43BqXkT

🚑 Junction, an API that links health wearables with labs, raised $18m in Series A funding led by Creandum. axios.link/4kyfRmS

🌎 Graphitic Energy (fka C-Zero), a Goleta, Calif.-based gas-to-hydrogen and graphite conversatin startup, raised $15m in Series A funding from Energy Capital Ventures, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, and Trafigura. axios.link/3FstIei

🌎 Supercritical Solutions, a London-based green hydrogen startup, raised £14m in Series A funding co-led by Shell Ventures and Toyota Ventures. axios.link/4ikAem1

• Mimo, a London-based payments fintech raised $8.5m. Project A led, and was joined by Northzone. mimohq.com

• AvatarOS, an LA-based 3D virtual avatar company, raised $7m. M13 led, and was joined by Andreessen Horowitz Games Fund, HF0, Valia Ventures, and Mento VC. avataros.com

⚡ Reshape Energy, a German provider of commercial building energy optimization solutions, raised €5m from PostScriptum Ventures and Vireo Ventures. axios.link/4bFsKrg

• Podqi, an IP protection platform, raised $3.2m in seed funding led by General Catalyst, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4iFStC9

• InsureVision, a British insurtech using cameras in risk assessment, raised $2.7m in seed funding. Rethink Ventures led, and was joined by Twin Path Ventures and State Farm Ventures. axios.link/3DqEPEb

• Thanks, a retail media ad network, raised $2.6m in seed funding from Peak XV Partners, Founder Collective, and Side Stage Ventures. thanks.co

• Lexroom.ai, an Italian legal research startup, raised €2m in seed funding led by Entourage. axios.link/43FcWmn

🚑 Archimed acquired BioVendor Group, a Czech provider of diagnostics equipment. axios.link/4ifpbuk

• Bain Capital, Hg, and TA Associates are circling Namirial, an Italian transaction management software firm that could fetch around €900m, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4hm47RB

🚑 BVI Medical, a Waltham, Mass.-based maker of ophthalmic devices, raised $1b from TPG. bvimedical.com

• Charterhouse Capital Partners agreed to acquire Estya, a French provider of electronic fire safety and security systems, from Chequers Capital (which retains a stake). axios.link/4iAii6C

• H.I.G. Capital acquired Protos, a Rome-based technical consulting firm. protos-spa.it

• Knox Lane acquired a majority stake in HighGround, a provider of residential mitigation and restoration services. highgroundnow.com

• KNS International, a footwear retailer owned by Centre Partners, acquired Birdies, a lifestyle and women's footwear brand. axios.link/3XLIzqD

• PAR Excellence Systems, an Ohio portfolio company of OceanSound Partners, merged with TrackCore, a Grand Raids, Mich., provider of biological tissue and implantable device tracking and compliance software. parexcellence.com

⚡ Pelican Energy Partners acquired United Services Group, a Charlotte, N.C.-based welding, machining, and fabrication contractor for utilities and power generation. united-services.com

• The Rohatyn Group agreed to buy the New Zealand forestry business of Rayonier (NYSE:RYN) for $710m. axios.link/3Fwu57C

• Scarlet Security & Risk Group, a Canadian security systems company backed by Trilogy Capital, acquired Ontario-based systems integrator OHM. ssrg.ca

• Shermco Industries, a Gryphon Investors portfolio company, acquired Power Products and Solutions, a Charlotte, N.C.-based electrical testing/maintenance provider and breaker reconditioning firm. shermco.com

• Smartlinx, a Framingham, Mass.-based portfolio company of Lone View Capital, acquired Bektek, a Hackensack, N.J.-based provider of workforce management software. smartlinx.com

• Westland Insurance, a Canadian insurance broker backed by Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, acquired Loewen Agencies. westlandinsurance.ca

• Cantor Equity Partners II, the 11th SPAC formed by Cantor Fitzgerald, filed for a $200m IPO.

• It's the first CF SPAC to be led by Brandon Lutnick, who became CEO of CF after his father, Howard Lutnick, became U.S. Commerce secretary. Howard Lutnick plans to divest his CF interests, including of the SPACs, but hasn't yet completed the process.

🚑 Hinge Health, an SF-based digital physical therapy startup valued by VCs at $6.2b, filed for an IPO that Renaissance Capital estimates could raise $500m Backers include Atomico, Insight Partners, Tiger Global, Coatue, TCV, Industry Ventures, Atomico, and Bessemer Venture Partners. axios.link/3XHqsSB

• Muyuan Foods, a Chinese pork producer, is weighing a second Hong Kong listing that could raise at least $1b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3FueR31

🚑 Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) acquired SoniVie, an Israeli maker of intravascular ultrasound systems, from Andrea Partners for up to $540m axios.link/3QVRwK7

• Hellman & Friedman is seeking $1b in new equity funding for insurance broker Hub International, at a $30b valuation, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3XKBarx

🚑 TA Associates is seeking a buyer for OmniActive, an Indian nutritional ingredients maker that could fetch up to $1b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3DxorSc

🚑 Zydus Lifesciences of India agreed to buy French orthopedics firm Amplitude Surgical from PAI Partners for $280m. axios.link/4kB9M9f

🚑 Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) agreed to acquire 2seventy bio (Nasdaq: TSVT), its CAR-T cell therapy partner, for $286m in cash. axios.link/3DygIDC

• Hexa, a Paris-based startup studio, acquired a majority stake in Veevart, a provider of SaaS for museums. axios.link/3DJE5dc

⚡ Orion Resource Partners invested $250m into Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC). axios.link/4ixjkjG

⚡ Tennet, a Dutch state-owned grid operator, is seeking investors in its German grid, which could have a €27b enterprise value. axios.link/4bLp2wf

⚡ TXNM Energy (NYSE: TXNM) is exploring a sale, after receiving inbound interest, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4iB7aXa

🌎 Aligned Climate Capital raised $85m for its second VC fund. axios.link/3DKe9OC

• Equator, a Kenyan VC firm, raised $55m for its debut fund. axios.link/3QX5Amy

• Fusion Fund raised $190m for its fourth early-stagte VC fund. fusionfund.com

🌎 SeaX Ventures raised $6m for its first climate-focused fund, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4hpA2R8

• Cameron Deatsch, former chief revenue officer for Atlassian, joined growth equity firm Bond as a partner. axios.link/4iDpb7b

• CapitalG promoted James Luo to general partner. axios.link/3QYBBe0

• Michael Diz joined law firm Davis Polk as a partner in its M&A practice. He previously was with Debevoise & Plimpton. axios.link/4kEmW5p

• EQT named Bert Janssens and Eric Liu as co-heads of private capital in Europe and North America, succeeding new EQT CEO Per Franzén. axios.link/4kFrdFJ

• KKR named Billy Butcher and Manu Sareen as co-heads of its Global Atlantic business, with Allan Levine moving into an exec chairman role. axios.link/4bEBZYI

• Arra Malekzadeh stepped down as a partner with Craft Ventures to build out the finance function at WorkOS. axios.link/3XHhbKh

• Reince Priebus joined Centerview Partners as a senior adviser. He's the former RNC chair who served as White House chief of staff in Trump's first term. centerviewpartners.com

• Mike Ramsay, Carlyle's onetime leveraged finance head, is now a director of the family office of Prudence MacLeod, Rupert Murdoch's eldest daughter, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4iAiLWq

• Sam Natbony (ex-LoneTree Capital) and Natan Reddy (25madison) joined Ironspring Ventures as principals. ironspring.com

• Eric Schiele left Kirkland & Ellis to join law firm Paul Hastings as a partner and global co-head of M&A. axios.link/4bJaygj

• Sentinel Capital Partners promoted Eric Bommer to co-managing partner. as part of a management succession plan. sentinelpartners.com

Airlines can be canaries in the economic coalmine, and right now they're looking peaked.

• American Airlines and Southwest today both warned of weaker-than-expected travel demand, cutting Q1 revenue forecasts, after Delta did the same yesterday.
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