Yale University has long been a private markets trailblazer and ally, thanks to its alts-heavy endowment model.

• Now it may become a taxblazer, much to the private market's chagrin.

Driving the news: Yale's Budget Lab, a nonpartisan policy research center, recently published an analysis that argues that changing the tax treatment of carried interest could generate over $100 billion in new federal revenue over the next decade.

• And then "substantially more revenue" afterwards.

Why it matters: This may alter the terms of the carried interest debate, which for years has been premised on much smaller numbers provided by sources like the Congressional Budget Office.

• Those advocating for carried interest to be taxed as ordinary income have said it's more about fairness than funding. They now get to argue both.
• Those arguing for carried interest to continue being taxed as capital gains have said the fiscal reward isn't worth the risk of reduced investment. They'll now lean into the second part, even though the Budget Lab also poured some cold water on it.

Full transparency: I've argued for more than 15 years that carried interest is a fee for service, and thus should be taxed as ordinary income. Many of you vociferously disagree (some sincerely, some selfishly).

Zoom in: Yale's Budget Lab based its analysis on anonymized K-1 tax records data obtained by Columbia Law School professor and economist Michael Love.

• This provided much more granular data on a broad set of partnerships, rather than extrapolating from more readily available sources like SEC filings for listed fund managers.
• There still wasn't a carried interest line item, but researchers were able to track "profit allocations in excess of contributed capital."

By the numbers: The $100 billion figure was based on a straight tax treatment change, including for real estate and hedge fund managers who earn carried interest.

• The Budget Lab estimates nearly $88 billion over 10 years from a recent proposal from three Democratic senators, versus earlier $47.5 billion estimates, while a more modest proposal from former President Biden would have generated $28 billion versus earlier estimates of $11 billion.
• It didn't break out the tax revenue by sub-asset class.

What they're saying: "The Budget Lab's analysis is fundamentally flawed, failing to account for the real-world impact these proposals would have by constricting economic growth, investment, and tax revenue," says Will Dunham, president and CEO of American Investment Council. "It tells us more about the group's pro-tax ideological biases than the actual policy impact."

• Natasha Sarin, president and co-founder of the Budget Lab and a Yale Law School professor, replied: "We anticipated industry pushback and I'm not super swayed by the nature of critiques they've levied ... They've mentioned that we don't account for behavioral response to closing the loophole, but we explicitly did ...
• She continues: "One valid critique is that we're extrapolating based on the industry's historical size, and not assuming outsized returns due to things like big AI returns. My view, therefore, is that our estimates may actually be a significant lower-bound."

The National Venture Capital Association — which like the AIC has lobbied to maintain capital gains treatment — didn't return a request for comment.

The bottom line: There's a new challenge to the status quo.

eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) today rejected a $55 billion takeover offer from GameStop (NYSE: GME), calling it "neither credible nor attractive."

Why it's the BFD: This reads like slapping away a mosquito, rather than trying to firm up financing or solicit a higher price.

• That may not sit well with GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen, who's a big admirer of GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen.

The bottom line: This may not be over, even if it probably should be.

• Digital Asset Holdings, creator of the Canton blockchain network, is raising around $300m at a $2b valuation led by a16z, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4dhILVD

• Paymentology, a London-based card issuing and processing platform, raised $175m led by Apis Partners and Asperity Partners. axios.link/42uF9dT

🚑 Forus (fka Tandem), a provider of software for administrative management of prescriptions, raised $160m from Thrive Capital, General Catalyst, Accel, Bain Capital Ventures, Redpoint, BoxGroup, and Pear VC. axios.link/4uNc3Tk

• Vapi, an AI voice platform, raised $50m, per Axios Pro. Peak XV led, joined by M12, Kleiner Perkins, and Bessemer Venture Partners. axios.link/3PBdlBJ

• Consensus, a Cambridge, Mass.-based AI for academic research, raised $30m in Series B funding. GreatPoint Ventures led, joined by USV, Draper Associates, and NFDG. axios.link/3PjtmMz

• Roadrunner, a CPQ software startup led by Kleiner Perkins partner Joubin Mirzadegan, raised $27m in seed and Series A funding from backers like Kleiner Perkins and Founders Fund, per Fortune. axios.link/4d5ukVL

• Ciridae, an SF-based AI transformation startup, raised $20m in seed funding. Accel led, joined by a16z, General Catalyst, Sunflower Capital, and Backcountry Ventures. axios.link/4d4rQHi

• Adfin, a London-based money movement and cashflow management platform, raised $18m in Series A funding. Index Ventures led, joined by Visionaries Club. axios.link/4dDvVSR

• ProcurePro, an Australian construction procurement platform, raised A$15m. QIC Ventures led, joined by Airtree, Glitch Capital and Bouygues. axios.link/4ffBKal

⚡ Casimir, a Houston-based energy harvesting startup, raised $12m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Scout Ventures led, joined by Lavrock Ventures, Cottonwood Technology, Capital Factory, American Deep Tech, and Tim Draper. axios.link/3QUOeKC

🚑 Pillar, an Italian OS for construction, raised €12m in seed funding. Earlybird Venture Capital and Base10 Partners led, joined by Italian Founders Fund. axios.link/4tpKsWZ

• Coddy, an Israeli coding ed-tech, raised $10m in user acquisition financing from PvX Partners. axios.link/4eBALkB

• Exponent, a provider of financing and expense management software for franchise operators, raised $10m in Series A and seed funding from Era, Chailease, K8 Fund, Kyle Kuzma, Haza Foods, and Chunara Group. axios.link/4eMySlj

🚑 Ditto, a Dutch patient communications platform, raised €7.6m. Heal Capital led, joined by Optiverder and Rubio Impact Ventures. axios.link/42tdLNy

• Sindhuja Microcredit, an Indian financial services startup for small businesses, raised $5m from Abler Nordic, GAWA Capital, and Oikocredit. axios.link/3PdRTmc

• Rogue, a high-protein snack brand, raised $2.5m in pre-seed funding. Science led, joined by Uncommon Ventures and Simple Food Ventures. axios.link/3QYQEYE

• Boundary Labs, an NYC-based developer of a protocol that makes stablecoins institution-ready through verifiable reserves, raised $2m in pre-seed funding. Galaxy Ventures led, joined by BlackWood and FirstBlock Capital. axios.link/4dfxHs2

🚑 Tolemy Bio, a U.K. "control panel" for cell biology, raised €1.4m in pre-seed funding. Norrsken Evolve led, joined by Big Sur Ventures, JME Ventures, and Masia. axios.link/4dBBz86

• 365 Retail Markets, a Providence Equity Partners portfolio company, completed its $848m take-private acquisition of Cantaloupe, a Malvern, Pa.-based provider of tech solutions for "unattended commerce." axios.link/43Zh2Eu

• Bain Capital and SoftBank affiliate LY Corp. submitted a $3.7b joint takeover bid for Kakatu (Tokyo: 2371), a price comparison and job search site that's also being pursued by EQT. axios.link/4eBHWt4

• Bain Capital and General Atlantic are among the suitors for Gong Cha, a bubble tea chain being sold by TA Associates for upwards of $2b, per Reuters. JPMorgan is running the process. axios.link/48ThLdH

• Basalt Infrastructure Partners acquired Relam, a lessor of maintenance-of-way and hi-rail equipment, from Paceline Equity Partners. axios.link/4fg7yMd

• Bisedge Logistics & Infrastructure, a pan-African green logistics company, raised $20m from Metier Private Equity. axios.link/4u9uJfY

• Cartridge Technologies, a CenterGate Capital portfolio company, acquired Data Conversion Laboratory, a Fresh Meadows, N.Y.-based provider of structured data and content transformation services. axios.link/433bXe8

• EQT again sweetened its takeover offer for Intertek (LSE: ITRK), a British product testing ​and certifications group that's rejected prior bids. The latest is for £9.4b. axios.link/3PkpmLN

• Goldman Sachs Alternatives acquired FGI Worldwide, an NYC-based provider of working capital financing and trade credit insurance solutions. axios.link/4wfjgwK

• Lafayette Instrument, a Branford Castle portfolio company, acquired Sutter Instrument, a maker of tools for cellular research and electrophysiology. axios.link/4eGVOCu

🚑 Lorient Capital acquired PeterMD, a DTC men's health platform. axios.link/4nqRVDN

• MBK Partners is in talks to acquire Japanese aluminum components manufacturer Altemira Holdings from Apollo, per Nikkei. axios.link/4nr8fEP

• Seaga Manufacturing, a Dominus Capital portfolio company, acquired Three Square Market, a River Falls, Wis.-based provider of micromarket convenience retail tech and self-service solutions. axios.link/4tqCDAc

• Stonepeak agreed to acquire the transportation finance and vendor finance business of BMO Financial Group (NYSE: BMO), which retains a 19.9% stake. axios.link/4nj8u4s

• Verdane acquired a stake in Telenor's (Oslo: TEL) IoT business at around an $809m valuation. axios.link/48TfejH

Source: Giphy

• Inspire Brands, the Roark Capital-owned parent company of fast-food chains like Dunkin' and Arby's, filed confidential IPO papers. axios.link/4d48kdR

⚡ INNIO Group, a distributed energy company backed by Advent International and ADIA, filed for an IPO that Renaissance Capital estimates could raise $1.5b. It reports $142m of net income on $2.64b in revenue for 2025, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (INIO). axios.link/4d92cQc

• Lincoln International, a Chicago-based investment banking advisory, set IPO terms to 21m shares at $18-$20. It plans to list on the NYSE (LCLN). axios.link/4ezNUdY

• Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining, a development-stage miner in Idaho, filed for a $400m IPO and plans to list on the NYSE (SSMR). axios.link/48YTOBQ

• WhiteHawk Minerals, a Philadelphia-based owner of natural gas mineral and royalty interests in the Marcellus and Haynesville Shales, filed for a $100m IPO. It plans to list on the NYSE (WHK) and is backed by Omega Capital Partners. axios.link/3Rj4K7b

• Platinum Equity completed its sale of Unical Aviation, a Glendale, Ariz.-based provider of aerospace aftermarket solutions, to Airbus (Paris: AIR) subsidiary Satair. axios.link/49JZikV

• Byron Allen agreed to buy a majority stake in BuzzFeed (Nasdaq: BZFD) for $120m and become its CEO. axios.link/3RgRBvm

• Coursera (NYSE: COUR) completed its all-stock merger with rival ed-tech Udemy, at around a $2.5b combined valuation. axios.link/4dBdKgy

🚑 Drummond Scientific, a Broomhall, Penn.-based med-tech company, acquired Accu-Glass, a St. Louis-based maker of glass capillaries used in medical applications. axios.link/4wlkKpc

• GoPro (Nasdaq: GPRO) said that it's received M&A inquiries, sending shares up 10% in aftermarket trading. axios.link/4dCpS0N

🚑 HealthScape Advisors, a subsidiary of Chartis Group, acquired PayerAlly, an Orlando-based pharmacy consultancy. axios.link/4dGkCsb

• Lufthansa Group of Germany next month will exercise its option to increase its stake in ​Italy's ITA Airways to 90% from 41% for €325m. axios.link/4udzUf2

• MoonPay acquired Dawn Labs, an SF-based trading infrastructure startup focused on prediction markets and digital assets. axios.link/3RyWtMp

• Siemens is weighing a takeover of Mer Mec, an Italian maker of train signaling and communications equipment that could fetch more than €1b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4eHEH3f

• SRS Distribution, a subsidiary of The Home Depot (NYSE: HD), acquired Mingledorff's, a Peachtree Corners, Ga.-based HVAC equipment and parts distributor. axios.link/4tZPKcN

VSE Corp. (Nasdaq: VSEC) agreed to acquire Precision Aviation Group, an Atlanta-based provider of aviation aftermarket MRO and distribution services, for over $2b from GenNx360 Capital Partners. axios.link/4doowWh

• Kalos Ventures, an early-stage firm led by Ashley Bittner (Firework Ventures), raised $78.8m for its debut fund. LPs include Zoma Capital, GCM Grosvenor, MassMutual, Sorenson Impact Advisory, and Pivotal Ventures. kalosventures.com

🚑 RS2 Healthcare Partners (fka Riverside Partners) raised a single-asset CV for Loftware, a Portsmouth, N.H.-based AI labeling and packaging services company it bought in 2014. axios.link/42soVSA

• S2G Investments of Chicago raised a $1b growth fund. axios.link/42uZTlJ

• Worldbuild, an early-stage VC firm led by Sumeet Singh (ex-a16z), raised $30m for its debut fund. axios.link/4wpk1mX

• Aurelio Banda joined Shore Capital Partners as an operating executive partner. He previously was president and CEO of Turck USA. axios.link/4tB0i17

• Eric Crowley joined Houlihan Lokey as an SF-based managing director in the firm's global technology group. He previously was with GP Bullhound. axios.link/4tzSRY1

• Leif Lindbäck joined Pantheon as a partner focused on PE secondaries. He previously was with CVC Capital Partners. axios.link/4uCSI6V

🚑 David Prendergast joined Denali Growth Partners as a principal. He previously was with Enhanced Healthcare Partners. axios.link/4eFy15U

• Raghu Ramanathan and Zane Rowe joined Bridge Growth Partners as an executive partner and senior advisor, respectively. Ramanathan previously was president of Thomson Reuters' legal professionals unit, while Rowe was CFO at Workday. axios.link/4wpjLo0

Steve Denning, a founding partner and chairman emeritus of General Atlantic, died late last month at the age of 77.

• Denning helped launch General Atlantic in 1980, helping to pioneer growth equity.
• He served as the firm's CEO from 1995 to 2007 and later chaired Stanford University's board of trustees.

In a statement, General Atlantic said of Steve: "He encouraged others to be adaptable and ambitious — to try new ideas, nurture relationships, take risks, and ultimately accomplish something much larger than what they had first imagined. His life was a testament to that advice."

Inflation continued to heat up in April, led by higher energy prices, with the Consumer Price Index hitting its highest year-over-year mark since May 2023.

• Month-over-month CPI rose 0.6%, while year-over-year was 3.8%.
• Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.4% and 2.8%, respectively.

Axios' Courtenay Brown writes: "Some economists anticipate that the energy shock will begin to bleed into other categories as industries that rely on energy and other key commodities impacted by the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure pass along costs to consumers."