We've noted repeatedly that 2023 has been a down year for dealmaking, with global M&A expected to be off more than 20% from 2022.

• What hasn't gotten as much attention, however, is that deal volumes have been relatively consistent since March.
• Call it the tortoise economy. Slow but steady.

By the numbers: The 2023 dip can mostly be traced to January and February when volume totaled just $144 billion and $152 billion, respectively.

• Since then, activity has been consistently stronger. Six of the nine months between March and November came in between $230 billion and $250 billion, and another was at $252 billion.
• The only real outlier was October when the Exxon/Pioneer deal pushed monthly volume above $300 billion ($338b) for the only time this year.

The big picture: Dealmakers almost always are optimistic about the next year; it's apparently a psychological prerequisite for the job.

• But today's animal spirits, are being driven by the long absence of a dry patch.
• Everyone's been busy since March, including through the summer vacation season, and almost all of the U.S. macro suggests better days ahead (e.g., stocks surging, inflation cooling, Fed cuts coming, etc.).
• The only hiccup could be next November's presidential election, but the deal markets shouldn't begin to notice until at least the party conventions.

Global Payments (NYSE: GPN) of Atlanta is considering a takeover bid for Pennsylvania-based rival Shift4 Payments (NYSE: FOUR), per Bloomberg.

Why it's the BFD: Consolidation pressures have returned to the payments tech sector, after a brief respite during the pandemic.

• And Global Payments is no stranger to the buyside, earlier this year acquiring EVO Payments for $4 billion.
• [Update: Global Payments is denying the Bloomberg report]

Investor reax: Shift4 shares rose nearly 5% on the news, giving it a $5.84 billion market cap. Global Payments shares fell 2.6%, bringing its market cap just below $33 billion.

The bottom line: "Companies such as Global Payments and Shift4 sit at the heart of the digital economy, offering secure channels linking sellers, customers and their banks in exchange for a fee." — Bloomberg

🚑 Parse Biosciences, a Seattle-based provider of single-cell sequencing solutions, raised $50m in Series C equity and debt funding. Soleus Capital led the equity tranche and was joined by Janus Henderson Investors, Marshall Wace, Sahsen Ventures and Saras Capital. Horizon Technology Finance Corp. provided the debt. https://axios.link/48kNLor

🚑 Amide Technologies, a Cambridge, Mass.-based biotech that synthesizes "challenging" peptides, raised $16.5m led by Engine Ventures. www.amidetech.com

• Prometeo, a Uruguayan fintech infrastructure startup for LatAm banks, raised a $13m in Series A round funding. Antler Elevate led, and was joined by PayPal Ventures. www.prometaoapi.com

• Distributional, an enterprise platform for AI testing, raised $11m in seed funding. Andreessen Horowitz led, and was joined by Operator Stack, Point72 Ventures, SV Angel, and Two Sigma. https://axios.link/3RKoqii

• Prevu, a New York-based online real estate platform, raised $6m in Series A funding from Citi, Alpaca Ventures, Winklevoss Capital, RiverPark Ventures, Metropolis Ventures, Simplex Ventures, Liebenthal Ventures, Alpaca VC, TYH Ventures, and Blue Ivy Ventures. https://axios.link/3GLjmDX

🌎 Metycle, a German metals recycling marketplace, raised €4.7m in seed funding. Project A led, and was joined by Partech, Market One Capital, and Dutch Founders Fund. https://axios.link/3TlN2Pl

• Pave Bank, a Singapore-based multi-asset commercial banking platform, raised $5.2m in seed funding. 468 Capital led, and was joined by Quona Capital, FT Partners, BR Capital, w3.fund, and Daedalus. www.pavebank.com

• Paynest, a Lisbon-based financial well-being platform, raised €2m in seed funding. Lince Capital led, and was joined by BlueCrow Capital, TechTree CTT, and M4 Ventures. https://axios.link/47WzZsj

🐟 Castle Harlan acquired Baja Aqua-Farms, a Mexican bluefin tuna rancher. www.bajaaquafarms.com

• CES Power, a Memphis-based portfolio company of Allied Industrial Partners, acquired Roundrock Technology, a Raleigh, N.C.-based provider of IT services to the entertainment industry. www.cespower.com

• Heartwood Partners acquired Bush Brothers Provisions, a West Palm Beach, Fla.-based meat packing and distribution company. www.bush-brothers.com

• Hg invested in CINC Systems, a Duluth, Ga.-based provider of cloud software to the community association management sector. Existing CINC backers include Spectrum Equity. www.cincsystems.com

• Relation Insurance Services, a Walnut Creek, Calif.-based portfolio company of Aquiline Capital Partners, acquired Illinois-focused Kane Insurance Agency. www.teamrelation.com

• RMA Cos., a Rancho Cucamonga, Calif.-based portfolio company of OceanSound Partners, acquired Rone Engineering, a Dallas-based geotechnical engineering, materials testing, and environmental services firm. www.rmacompanies.com

🚑 Trend Health Partners, a Hunt Valley, Md.-based portfolio company of Lone View Capital, acquired Advent Health Partners, a Nashville-based provider of health care data management solutions.
www.trendhealthpartners.com

• TruArc Partners invested in Watchtower Security, a St. Louis-based provider of managed video surveillance and asset protection solutions to the multi-family housing industry. www.watchtower-security.com

⚡ Uplight, a Boulder, Colo.-based provider of software for electric utilities, agreed to acquire AutoGrid, a Redwood City, Calif.-based VPP and distributed resource management provider, from Schneider Electric (Paris: SU). Uplight's backers include Schneider, Huck Capital, Coatue, and Inclusive Capital Partners. https://axios.link/48iqsM0

🚑 Fractyl Health, a Lexington, Mass.-based developer of therapies for Type 2 diabetes and obesity, filed for a $100m IPO. It plans to list on the Nasdaq under ticker symbol GUTS (kudos on that one), and has raised over $300m in VC funding from Mithril (15.8% pre-IPO stake), General Catalyst (12.7%), Bessemer Venture Partners (12.4%), Domain Associates (10.4%), and Crown Venture Fund (10.3%). https://axios.link/41vJ0Gf

• Webster Financial (NYSE: WBS) agreed to buy Ametros Financial, a Burlington, Mass.-based custodian and administrator of medical funds from insurance claim settlements, from Long Ridge Equity Partners. www.ametros.com

• Campari Group (Milan: CPR) agreed to buy Courvoisier Cognac from Beam Suntory for at least $1.2b. https://axios.link/3Nvgoah

• DPG Media of Belgium agreed to buy the Dutch business of Bertelsmann-owned European broadcaster RTL Group for €1.1b in cash. https://axios.link/3v2ziPB

• M2P Fintech, an Indian API infrastructure provider, acquired transaction behavior intelligence company Goals101 for around $30m. M2p has raised over $100m from firms like Insight Partners, Beenext, Flourish Ventures, and Omidyar Network. Goals101 backers included Dentsu Ventures and Vistra ITCL. https://axios.link/3uSP6nM

• Punchbowl News acquired Electo Analytics, a company that provides data to help decipher and analyze legislation. https://axios.link/46Zruv2

• Royal Golden Eagle, owned by Indonesian billionaire Sukanto Tanoto, offered to buy a 52% stake in Hong Kong-based diaper and tissue maker Vinda International from Stockholm-listed Essity for around US$3.35b. https://axios.link/3v6WBaM

Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz said it plans to begin making donations to political candidates who support what it sees as "advancing technology." Word is that this is still a work in progress, with initial checks to come from individual partners.

🌎 Climactic, a seed firm cofounded by Freestyle Capital's Josh Felser and ex-Lyft exec Raj Kapoor, raised $65m for its debut fund. https://axios.link/3Nr7rii

• Ryan Moore has stepped down as a co-founding partner of Boston-based VC firm Accomplice, according to an investor email obtained by Axios.

• He writes: "I know now that the stressors of early stage venture capital aren't suitable for me. Although this realization deeply saddens me, I know it's the right move for myself, my family, and the firm."

• AE Industrial Partners promoted Kirk Konert to managing partner. https://axios.link/3TnEJTa

• David Gonino is retiring as CIO of the Alfred I. duPont Charitable Trust, after 20 years in the job, and will be succeeded by Travis Angevine. https://axios.link/3NrIL9i

• Lewis Hower, former head of startup banking at SVB, joined Orrick as a managing director of tech and fund relationships. www.orrick.com

• KKR named Dane Holmes as chief administrative officer. He has been on KKR's board since 2021, and will resign that role. www.kkr.com

• TPG named Nehal Raj, Jeffrey Rhodes, and Josh Baumgarten to its board of directors. Raj and Rhodes are co-managing partners of TPG Capital, while Baumgarten is co-managing partner of TPG Angelo Gordon. www.tpg.com