The political sands are shifting beneath U.S. Steel's proposed sale to Japan's Nippon Steel, but perhaps too late for President Biden to change his mind about stopping the deal.

Why it matters: Pennsylvania could determine the presidential election.

• U.S. Steel has around 4,000 employees in Pennsylvania, each of whom presumably has voting-age friends and family, plus is a cornerstone of the state's economic identity.

Catch up quick: When the merger was announced at the end of 2023, the political reaction was predictable: Don't let a foreign company buy an American icon, even if it's no longer the country's largest steelmaker.

• Particularly when the steelworkers union supported a rival takeover offer from Cleveland-Cliffs, which is based just over the border in Ohio.
• Former President Trump quickly came out in opposition, while Biden in March expressed more cautious criticism.
• Vice President Harris last week said she's against the deal, and word leaked that Biden could soon block it on national security grounds (i.e., steel gets used in military hardware).

State of play: While national politicians have toed the conventional wisdom, second thoughts are emerging inside of Pennsylvania — where memories remain of steel mill closures in the 1980s.

• U.S. Steel reiterated last week that a deal failure would cause it to close some operations in Pennsylvania, and maybe even relocate its Pittsburgh headquarters. It may be bluffing, but the better bet is that it's not.
• Nippon, meanwhile, pledged over $2.7 billion in new investments for U.S. Steel facilities — including the Mon Valley Works in Pennsylvania that's most threatened.
• Union leadership remains opposed to the deal. But the language seems to have softened a bit, perhaps after hearing from rank-and-file who are increasingly scared for their jobs.

Zoom in: All eyes right now are on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who in July said he was "not happy" with the Nippon deal because the steelworkers weren't happy.

• Now, however, there's widespread speculation that he's recognizing a revised reality, including how the outcome could impact November, his reelection and a future White House run.
• Shapiro has been in touch with the White House over the past week, although Biden's position is highly unlikely to change, a source close to the issue tells Axios.

The bottom line: Despite the national security pretense, this is almost all about politics. And if Shapiro has enough conviction and capital to convince Biden that the politics have changed.

Sequoia Capital last week completed its $861 million purchase of Stripe shares from Sequoia limited partners, Axios has learned.

Why it's the BFD: This is a stark example of just how thirsty LPs are for liquidity, as there was enough selling interest to fulfill the full allotment that Sequoia offered in July.

• It also could become a model for how VC firms deal with long-in-the-tooth portfolio companies.

Details: LPs in Sequoia funds raised between 2009 and 2012 sold at $27.51 per share, which is Stripe's most recent 409A mark and represents a $70 billion valuation.

• Some LPs exited completely, while some only sold a portion, and many also were buyers via commitments to more recent Sequoia funds.

The bottom line: "We are pleased that we are able to offer flexibility to our LPs and in doing so, deepening our commitment to Stripe, a company we are very bullish on long term. We are optimistic about Stripe's future and believe that Stripe is well-positioned to compound for many years to come." — Sequoia Capital spokesperson to Axios

🚑 Superluminal Medicines, a Waltham, Mass., generative biology and chemistry startup, raised $120m in Series A funding. RA Capital Management led, and was joined by Catalio Capital, Eli Lilly, Cooley and insiders Insight Partners, NVentures, and Gaingels. superluminalrx.com

⚡ 24M, a Cambridge, Mass., battery tech startup, raised $87m in Series H funding led by Nuovo+ at a valuation north of $1b. axios.link/3z9I3cS

⚡ 6K, a North Andover, Mass., battery materials maker, raised $82m in Series E funding from insiders Anzu Partners, Energy Impact Partners, LaunchCapital, Material Impact, and Volta Energy Technologies. axios.link/47fotIY

• Finally, a Miami-based bookkeeping software provider, raised $50m in Series B funding from PeakSpan Capital. It also secured a $150m credit facility from Encina. finally.com

• Drip Capital, a Palo Alto, Calif., working capital startup, raised $23m in equity funding from GMO Payment Gateway and Sumitomo Mitsui Bank. It also secured $90m in debt led by the International Finance Corp. and East West Bank. axios.link/3Tk0xhA

• Korint, a French insurance SaaS startup, raised €5m led by Ventech. axios.link/4dS7SNH

• 3DEO, an LA-based metal additive manufacturing startup, raised $3.5m from Mizuhio Bank. axios.link/3AXtR7C

• Agree, a SF-based agreements fintech, raised $3m in pre-seed funding. Better Tomorrow Ventures led, and was joined by 8-Bit Capital, Everywhere Ventures, Expedite Ventures, Firsthand Alliance, Hustle Fund, NEA, Singh Capital Partners, and Trust Fund. agree.com

• NetNow, a Toronto-based trade credit automation platform for the lumber and building materials industries, raised C$1.8m in pre-seed funding led by Ripple Ventures, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4cW3RGE

• Accel and HPS Investment Partners each plan to invest "hundreds of millions of pounds" into Aston Martin's Formula One racing team, per Sky News. axios.link/3ZfoJWk

• BlackRock received U.S. FERC approval for its $12.5b takeover of Global Infrastructure Partners. axios.link/3B4Ig1v

🚑 EQT agreed to by a control stake in GeBBS Healthcare Solutions, a provider of revenue cycle management and risk adjustment solutions to hospitals and payers, from ChrysCapital. axios.link/3ZAlI3h

• EQT and CPPIB are in talks to invest around $5b into existing portfolio company Nord Anglia, an international private school operator, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4gdMiF5

• Madison Dearborn Partners invested in Harmonia Holdings, a Blacksburg, Va., provider of tech services to the U.S. federal government. MDP executive partners Damon Griggs and Jon Brooks will join Harmonia as CEO and chief biz/legal officer, respectively. harmonia.com

• MNC Capital Partners increased its takeover offer for Vista Outdoors (NYSE: VSTO) to $43 per share, but the Vista board replied that the announcement continued a "a frustrating pattern and is not constructive."

• Nexus Capital agreed to buy discount home goods retailer Big Lots (NYSE: BIG), via a prepackaged bankruptcy. axios.link/4d4aFCi

• Permira increased its takeover bid for Squarespace (NYSE: SQSP), a website-building platform for businesses and brands, to $7.2b from $6.9b. axios.link/3zcymdO

• Perpetual Capital Partners acquired Novatech, a Nashville, Tenn., provider of nationwide managed office solutions. novatech.net

🎵 Primary Wave signed a publishing and NIL rights deal with the estate of The Cars frontman Ric Ocasek. Primary Wave backers include BlackRock, Brookfield Asset Management, CAA, and Oaktree Capital Management. axios.link/3TkGaAW

• Reynolda Equity Partners acquired Carlton Industrial Solutions, a Greensboro, N.C., provider of calibration, repair, and automation services. carltonindustrialsolutions.com

• Unical Aviation, a portfolio company of Platinum Equity, acquired British aircraft recycler eCube from Baird Capital Partners. ecube.aero

• Ather, an Indian e-scooter maker, plans to raise around $370m in a local IPO. axios.link/3ATq7nj

• 99 Speed Mart, a Malaysian convenience store chain, raised $531m in its Kuala Lumpur IPO and saw shares climb more than 16% on their first trading day. axios.link/3TlhWqv

🚑 Bicara Therapeutics, a Cambridge, Mass.-based developer of dual-action biologics, set IPO terms to 11.77m shares at $16-$18. The Phase 1 biotech would have a $782m market cap, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (BCAX). It's raised over $300m in VC funding from firms like RA Capital (16.1% pre-IPO stake), Red Tree (9.8%, Omega Funds (6%), Invus (6%), TPG (5.7%), Aisling Capital, Fairmont, F-Prime Capital, Deerfield, and Braidwell. axios.link/4cXeBVB

• Kindercare, a Portland, Ore.-based childcare provider owned by Partners Group, refiled for an IPO. It previously sought to go public in 2021 and 2022. The company reports $27m of net income on $1.34b in revenue for the first half of 2024, and plans to list on the NYSE (KLC). axios.link/3B7ABQ0

⚡ Oman's state energy company plans to raise around $2b via an IPO of its E&P business, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3Xz4lOM

• StandardAero, a Scottsdale, Ariz.-based aircraft maintenance company owned by Carlyle, filed for an IPO. Carlyle previously had sought to sell StandardAero for around $10b. It plans to list on the (NYSE: SARO), and reports $9m of net income on $2.58b in revenue for the first half of 2024. axios.link/3MAWcTx

• Vine Hill Capital Investment, led by SPAC vet Nicholas Petruska, raised $200m in its IPO. axios.link/4bNl58J

🚑 Zenas BioPharma, a Waltham, Mass., developer of therapies for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, set IPO terms to 11.76m at $16-$18. It The Phase 3 biotech would have a $651m market cap, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (ZBIO). It's raised over $350m from firms like Delos Capital Partners, SR One, NEA, Longitude Capital, Tellus BioVentures, Fairmount Funds, and Norwest Venture Partners. axios.link/4gdIweW

• Progress Software (Nasdaq: PRGS) agreed to buy ShareFile for $875m from Cloud Software Group, a portfolio company of Vista Equity. axios.link/4d0b8Wj

• Quilter (LSE: QLT) agreed to acquire NuWealth, a London-based platform for creating investing portfolios that raised $23m from Monese and Fuel Ventures. axios.link/4gieRRG

• Elis (Paris: ELIS) made a preliminary takeover approach for Vestis (NYSE: VSTS), a Georgia uniform rental and workplace supplies company with a $1.9b market cap. axios.link/4d0nY6T

⚡ Methanex (TSX: MX) of Canada agreed to buy the methanol business of Dutch green fuel-maker OCI Global (Ams: OCI) for US$2.05b. axios.link/4gkXzng

• Atomico, a European VC firm, raised $485m for its sixth early-stage fund and $754m for its sixth growth fund. axios.link/4dSNBaN

⚡ Five Point Energy raised $1.4b for its fourth energy infrastructure fund. fivepointenergy.com

• Gryphon Investors raised a continuation fund for Vessco Water a Chanhassen, Minn., wastewater services company it acquired in 2020. Backers include Apollo S3 Investment Management, Lexington Partners, and Glendower Capital. vessco.com

• Castik Capital, a German PE firm, raised €2b for its third fund. axios.link/4eyL9Xd

• Schroders raised €400m for its third European buyouts fund. axios.link/3zeD2jp

• Kevin Boylan, co-founder of Powerplant Ventures and Veggie Grill, joined Unovis Asset Management as a partner. axios.link/4gkZO9R

• Jeremy Capstick is leaving JPMorgan to join PJT Partners as a senior market infrastructure banker, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4dRT0yT

🚑 Michael Keaveney joined Amulet Capital Partners as a partner and head of IR. He previously was with Capstone Partners. axios.link/3ZjnWnu

🍔 Nelson Peltz is stepping down as board chair at Wendy's (Nasdaq: WEN). axios.link/4dU8brs

• Jeff Silverstein joined BoxGroup as a N.Y.-based principal. He previously was with a16z. axios.link/3ASWHpF

The U.S. Department of Justice and Google today begin a landmark trial over the search giant's advertising business, which the government argues in anticompetitive.

• DOJ is calling for select divestitures, a process that Google argues would be impractical.

Why it matters, per Axios' Scott Rosenberg: Google already lost one major antitrust case this year when a federal judge ruled the tech giant illegally abused its search monopoly. A second loss could lead to sweeping changes in the firm's core business as it fights for leadership in the AI era.

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