Thoma Bravo yesterday defied private equity's fundraising slump, raising $34.4 billion for three new funds. So I spent some time chatting with firm co-founder and managing partner Orlando Bravo, who was on his way to the SuperReturn conference in Berlin.

• We discussed the software-focused firm's funds, PE's challenges, AI, and the buzzy deal he passed on.

What follows is an edited transcript of our conversation:

Axios: You raised the same amount for your flagship fund as you did in 2022 ($24.3b), but upsized your midmarket fund (to $8.1b from $6.2b). What does that tell us?

Bravo: "Each fund is sized appropriately for its opportunity. And what's going on is that the midmarket's getting a little bigger, or the definition of a midmarket company keeps rising.

• "In terms of the flagship, it gives us all the capital we need to be the number one player in software for the categories we like."

What are you going to talk about in Berlin?

"The big challenges facing private equity. To put it very simply, private equity has a problem putting money to work and returning money.

• "I think one of the causes for both is there are too many worries about the macro — all of these factors that are not meant for our industry ... These are things our industry cannot control and certainly cannot predict."

Are you saying PE should ignore the macro?

"Just worry about the business."

Aren't PE-backed businesses impacted by the macro?

"If they're being impacted you're paying attention to the business. But I don't know how private equity buys a business that is heavily impacted by tariffs, yet I'm going to pursue it because I'm going to flip a coin on where public policy is going to go. I wouldn't touch that. It's not feasible, unless you want to gamble.

• "Same thing if you buy a business where, if interest rates go up another 200 basis points you're in trouble. Good luck. You're gambling with people's money."

A big PE narrative was that Biden's antitrust regime was chilling sales of tech companies to strategics. Why haven't we seen more exits so far in Trump 2.0?

"The new antitrust regime hasn't been tested ... There are still some Sometimes in policy you see a continuation of the past, particularly if you have deals that are still under review from the past administration. And there are a few of those overlapping deals."

What is Thoma Bravo's best internal use case for AI?

"Summarizing data. But right now there is not a compelling use case we see that will dramatically affect how we add value."

Do you think that's just a matter of time?

"It could be. Of course we have lots of data from a private equity standpoint, about $30 billion of revenue coming from our software companies — by geography, by deal, by customer — but you don't need an enormous model for all that stuff and a lot of models in the past could predict that information.

• "Technology is evolutionary in the corporate world, not revolutionary, so it's going to take time."

Last time we spoke, we discussed Thoma Bravo's decision to pass on helping Elon Musk buy Twitter. Yuo felt good about your decision. Now that he's merged X with xAI, do you still feel good about it?

"Absolutely. It's not a deal for us."

Impulse Space, a Redondo Beach, Calif.-based maker of spacecraft for "tugging" satellites across orbits, raised $300 million in Series C funding led by Linse Capital.

Why it's the BFD: This is the picks and shovels of defense-tech, akin to what oilfield service companies were to the fracking boom.

Zoom in: Impulse is led by Tom Mueller, the first SpaceX employee.

• Other investors include DFJ Growth and insiders Valor Equity Partners, Founders Fund, Lux Capital, RTX Ventures, DCVC, Airbus Ventures, Spring Tide, First Principles Group, Balerion Space Ventures, Tamarack Global, and Trousdale Ventures.

The bottom line: "Impulse quickly went to market with its Mira maneuverable space vehicle for payload hosting and deployment. The company racked up 30 contracts worth nearly $200 million. It is currently developing its Helios high-energy kick stage payload delivery system for MEO, GEO, and beyond with a goal to launch in 2026." — Jeffrey Hill, Via Satellite

• Boltech, a Singaporean embedded insuretech, raised $147m at a $2.1b valuation. Dragon Fund led, joined by Baillie Gifford, Generali, Sumitomo, and Iberis Capital. axios.link/43vmH6l

• Speedata, an Israeli chip startup, raised $44m in Series B funding from Walden Catalyst Ventures, 83North, Koch Disruptive Technologies, Pitango First, and Viola Ventures. axios.link/4mJIG0R

• Mind, a data loss prevention startup, raised $30m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Paladin Capital Group and Crosspoint Capital Partners co-led, joined by Okta Ventures and YL Ventures. axios.link/4l9YE2T

• Aibidia, a Finnish provider of transfer pricing software, raised $28m in Series B funding, per Axios Pro. Activant led, joined by insiders DN Capital, FPV and Icebreaker. axios.link/3Swc5hc

⚡ Amber, an Australian provider of automation software for optimizing home battery and EV usage, raised €26m led by ETF Partners, joined by insiders Square Peg, Gentrack, Rubio Impact Ventures, and Breakthrough Victoria. axios.link/4kyoEoI

• Fabriq, a SaaS for managing frontline manufacturing teams, raised $25m led by Expedition Growth Capital, joined by insider OSS Ventures. fabriq.tech

• Sema4.ai, an Atlantia-based agentic AI startup, raised $25m in Series A extension funding from Snowflake Ventures, Rocketship VC, MVP Ventures, Cox Enterprises and insiders Mayfield and Benchmark, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4jyzZ6y

• Dataplor, a Manhattan Beach, Calif.-based provider of global location intelligence, raised $20.5m in Series B funding. F-Prime led, joined by Spark Capital, FFVC, Acronym Venture Capital, Two Lanterns Venture Capital, APA Ventures, dara5, and Alumni Ventures. axios.link/43WzqyR

• Skyral, a British modelling and simulation software startup, raised $20m in Series A funding led by NOIA Capital. axios.link/4dW7RcE

• Baobob Insurance, a German insuretech, raised €12m in Series A funding. Viola Fintech and eCapital co-led, joined by Augmentum Fintech and Project A Ventures. axios.link/3HnsYYY

🌎 Jua, an Earth simulation platform for climate and weather forecasting, raised $11m in Series A funding. Ananda Impact Ventures and Future Energy Ventures co-led, joined by 468 Capital and Promus Ventures. axios.link/4n00pBo

🚑 Canid, a New York-based pediatric vaccine management startup, raised $10m in Series A funding. Telescope Partners led, joined by FJ Labs, Brooklyn Bridge Ventures, and SeedtoB. axios.link/3ZfaW1n

• Thunder Code, a Paris-based software testing startup, raised $9m in seed funding from backers like Silicon Badia and Janngo Capital. axios.link/4kUwl8p

🚑 Aeon, a Swiss full-body scanning startup, raised €8.2m. Concentric led, joined by Calm/Storm Ventures, GoHub, Kadmos, EWOR, and Daniel Gutenberg. axios.link/3Fz1C1E

🚑 ArcheHealth, a Birmingham, Ala.-based provider of operational performance improvement tools for hospitals, raised $6.7m in seed funding from LRVHealth, Martin Ventures, and Texas Health Resources. axios.link/4jvglbF

• AUAR, a U.K.-based developer of robotic microfactories, raised £5.1m. Planet A led, joined by Shadow Ventures, Common Magic, and Concrete VC. axios.link/3ZeuRgK

🌎 Kumulus Water, a French developer of atmospheric water generators, raised €3.1m in seed funding from Bpifrance, PlusVC, Khalys Venture, Flat6Labs, and Spadel. axios.link/4jAnQOO

🚑 AIATELLA, a Finnish cardio screening and imaging startup, raised €2m in seed funding led by Nordic Science Investments. axios.link/4mIrnx0

• BayPine acquired a majority stake in Harbor Global, a Chicago-based provider of consulting and tech services to the legal industry, from Renovus Capital Partners (which retains a position). harborglobal.com

• Circana, a marketing research firm owned by Vestar Capital Partners, acquired NCSolutions, a joint venture between Nielsen and Catalina to measure advertising campaigns. circana.com

• Epassi Group, backed by TA Associates and Warburg Pincus, acquired Zest, an employee benefits management SaaS. axios.link/4kn0Y6l

• Haveli Investments acquired Accommodations Plus International, a Melville, N.Y.-based provider of accommodations and travel tech solutions. apiglobalsolutions.com

🚑 Stada, a German pharma company owned by Bain Capital and Cinven, is in talks to be acquired by other PE firms as an alternative to an IPO, per Welt. axios.link/43AusXa

• Paceline Equity Partners acquired Everflow, a Carteret, N.J.-based wholesale master distributor of plumbing supplies. everflowsupplies.com

• PAI Partners is seeking €4b to help finance a continuation fund for its 50% stake in Froneri, an ice cream maker whose brands include Häagen-Dazs, plus pay a dividend, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4kOWJ3q

⚡ Partners Group agreed to acquire PowerTransitions, a utility-scale U.S. solar developer, from EnCap Investments. power-transitions.com

🚑 Quantum Health, a Columbus, Ohio-based portfolio company of Warburg Pincus and Great Hill Partners, agreed to acquire Embold Health, a Nashville-based health-tech company that had raised around $55m from firms like Echo Health Ventures, Whistler Capital Partners, Chrysalis Ventures, and Morgan Health. quantum-health.com

• Solvd, a Siguler Guff portfolio company, acquired Tooploox, a Polish AI software development firm. solvd.com

⚡ TPG Rise Climate acquired Aurora Energy Research, a U.K. provider of power market forecasting and analytics, from CGE Partners, 22C Capital and Aurora CEO John Feddersen (each of whom are reinvesting). axios.link/3ZilgFQ

• Trucordia, a Lindon, Utah-based insurance broker, raised $1.3b from Carlyle's credit platform at a $5.7b valuation. axios.link/3Tdp7jL

• Ategrity Specialty, a New York-based provider of excess and surplus insurance to SMBs, set IPO terms to 6.7m shares at $14-$16. It would have a $706m fully diluted value, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the NYSE (ASIC). axios.link/3FlVD09

🚑 One Equity Partners hired JPMorgan to find a buyer for InfuCare, a Secaucus, N.J.-based infusion provider that is generating around $50m in EBITDA, per Axios Pro. axios.link/3FDjsR3

⚡ ONEOK (NYSE: OKE) acquired the 49.9% stake it doesn't already hold in a Delaware Basin joint venture from NGP XI Midstream Holdings for $940m. axios.link/3HG8bQo

• Post Holdings agreed to acquire Ronzoni maker 8th Avenue Food & Provisions for $880m (including assumed debt). Sellers include Harvest Partners and THL Partners, the latter of which helped carve the 8th Avenue assets out of Post in 2018. axios.link/3HqtUvR

🚑 Agenus (Nasdaq: AGEN) is selling its biologics CDMO business to listed Indian drugmaker Zydus Lifesciences for up to $125m (including $75m upfront). axios.link/43K6toO

⚡ AppDirect, a B2B commerce platform valued by VCs at $1.7b, is expanding into energy procurement via an $85m purchase of Broker Online Exchange. axios.link/43uFgaE

• Chart Industries (NYSE: GTLS) agreed to merge with Flowserve (NTSE: FLS) in an all-stock deal that would value the combined company at around $19b, per the WSJ. axios.link/4mJRsfe

• Franklin Templeton agreed to acquire a majority stake in Apera Asset Management, a pan-European private credit firm with over €5b in AUM. axios.link/3Hnw3Iw

🌎 Energize Capital of Chicago raised $430m for its third climate-tech VC fund. axios.link/4jvgrA3

• President Trump nominated Chris Pilkerton, a current Treasury Department counsel and acting SBA head during Trump's first term, to oversee CFIUS. axios.link/43MaKYO

• Mike Addeo joined Evercore as a senior managing director of private credit advisory. He previously was with Blackstone. axios.link/45EkUwY

• Sean Yajnik joined Macquarie Capital as head of digital infrastructure advisory. He previously was with TD Securities. axios.link/3SyVMQI

• Mark Milano is leaving HSBC to join Moelis & Co. as a London-based managing director focused on EMEA financial services, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4kxKMj2

• Andy O'Brien at year-end will retire as global head of loan capital strategy at JPMorgan, after 40 years with the bank. axios.link/43MnDCf