Polymarket last week launched prediction markets tied to "private company performance and milestones."

• Or, put more simply, bet on startup valuations.

Why it matters: This could expand investor exposure to the hockey stick phase of startup growth — including for IPO procrastinators like Stripe — albeit indirectly.

• It also could expand investor risk, since these companies aren't required to disclose financial performance or material events.

Yes but: These markets aren't yet being offered in the U.S.

• Polymarket doesn't mention this in its press release, but confirms to Axios that the new product is available only via its offshore app. The unregulated one that U.S. residents regularly access via VPNs or other surreptitious means, but aren't supposed to.

The big picture: U.S. prediction market contracts — on everything from elections to baseball games — are regulated by the CFTC, which has taken a very light-touch approach under President Trump.

• Contracts tied to equity prices, however, constitute security-based swaps that would need to be regulated by the SEC.
• Moreover, it's possible that they only could be traded by "Eligible Contract Participants," which is the derivatives market version of being an accredited investor.

What they're (not) saying: Polymarket declined to say if it's having discussions with either the SEC or CFTC about allowing the private market "equity" contracts in the U.S.

• Also not commenting was Nasdaq Private Market, which is serving as Polymarket's "resolution data provider" for this offering. Instead, it referred all questions to Polymarket.
• NPM years ago spun off from Nasdaq, which retains an equity stake. Also worth noting that the New York Stock Exchange's parent company is a major Polymarket investor.

Look ahead: This feels like Polymarket testing the regulatory waters, in case the SEC mimics the CFTC in being a prediction markets pushover.

• A wildcard could be growing bipartisan criticism — often in response to "offshore" bets via Polymarket — which at some point may cause Trump to adjust his laissez-faire posture.

Anthropic has raised $65 billion in Series H funding at a $965 billion post-money valuation, led by insiders Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital.

Why it's the BFD: This is the largest "venture capital" round of all time and sees Anthropic leapfrog rival OpenAI on valuation.

• On the first point, I'm excluding $15 billion in prior Series H commitments from hyperscalers — including $5 billion from Amazon — and also hyperscaler commitments in OpenAI's tranched-out $110 billion raise.

Other backers include Capital Group, Coatue, D1 Capital Partners, GIC, Iconiq, XN, AMP PBC, Baillie Gifford, Blackstone, Brookfield, D.E. Shaw Ventures, DST Global, Fidelity, General Catalyst, Insight Partners, Jane Street, Lightspeed, MGX, NTTVC, NX1 Capital, Situational Awareness, T. Rowe Price, and Temasek.

Elsewhere: Bloomberg reports that Apollo and Blackstone are seeking to bring new investors into its $36 billion private debt deal to help Anthropic buy custom chips from Google.

The bottom line: "Anthropic yesterday also released Claude Opus 4.8, an upgrade to its flagship AI model with better coding and knowledge work skills, all for the same price as its prior version. The new model still lags the performance of Mythos, Anthropic's most advanced, but the company says Mythos-class models are expected 'in the coming weeks.'" — Madison Mills, Axios

• Airwallex, an Australia-founded payments firm, raised new funding led by Addition at around a $12b valuation, Axios has learned. axios.link/433GRmM

⚡️ Base Power, an Austin, Texas-based home battery company, is in talks to raise funds at a $12b valuation led by insider Ribbit Capital, per The Information. axios.link/4dRVPRR

🎵 Bond agreed to lead a new investment in AI music startup Suno, which would be valued at around $5b, per Axios Pro. axios.link/49sT1cD

• Stark, a German dronemaker, is in talks to raise at least €300m at a €2.5b valuation, per the FT. axios.link/4uJpFza

⚡️ Focused Energy, a German laser-fusion developer, raised $240m in Series A funding from RWE, SPRIND, European Innovation Council Fund, and insider Prime Movers Lab. axios.link/49NtECz

• Corgi, an insurance tech startup, raised $106m at a $2.6b valuation. TCV led, joined by Zone II Ventures, Oliver Jung, Leblon Capital, Kindred Ventures, Quadri, First Order Fund, Vocal Ventures, Nordstar, GSBackers, Repeat Ventures, and 8188 Capital. axios.link/4vabSRY

🚑 Garner Health, a care navigation platform, raised $100m in Series E funding at a $2.74b post-money valuation. Index Ventures led, joined by Kleiner Perkins, Redpoint, Thrive, Sequoia, Founders Fund, and Kaiser Permanente Ventures. axios.link/4o6cmGv

🚀 Observable Space, an LA-based laser satellite link developer, raised $90m from Lux Capital, Upfront Ventures, Detroit Venture Partners, Island Green Capital, RTX Ventures, BRV Capital, and Fathom Fund. axios.link/4f9VBYD

• Reactor, an SF-based AI video platform, raised $59m. Lightspeed led, joined by WndrCo, Amplify Partners, Sky9 Capital, and FPV Ventures. axios.link/4e8lVRU

• Inherent, a London-based AI lab, raised $50m in seed funding led by Index Ventures and Radical Ventures. axios.link/4dTpTfY

• Gray Swan, a Pittsburgh-based AI security platform, raised $40m. Wing Venture Capital and Madrona led, joined by Obvious Ventures, Snowflake Ventures, Hudson River Trading, Samsung Next, and insider Magarac Venture Partners. axios.link/435yxD5

🚑 H1, an NYC-based doctor connections platform, raised $40m led by CVS Health Ventures. axios.link/4adpfIY

⚡️ Utilidata, a data center energy optimization startup, raised $40m in Series C funding. Renown Capital Partners led, joined by Keyframe Capital. axios.link/4fOjzsD

• LightTable, a provider of pre-construction software, raised $22m in Series A funding. Innovation Endeavors led, joined by Blackhorn Ventures, DivcoWest Ventures, 9Yards Capital,Primary Venture Partners, MetaProp, and Banter Capital. axios.link/43xEnNI

• MokN, a French provider of credential theft protection, raised $15m in Series A funding. GV led, joined by DataDog, Moonfire and OVNI Capital. axios.link/4wSRRBf

• Rep AI, an Israeli AI platform for ecommerce and online retailers, raised $6.2m. Silicon Road Ventures led, joined by Osage Venture Partners, Flashpoint Venture Capital, and Zendesk. axios.link/4tZP3iU

• Modiqo, an SF-based agentic enterprise workflow startup, raised $3m in pre-seed funding. Heavybit and Seligman Ventures led, joined by Irregular Expressions. axios.link/4eacXn7

⚡️Volt Harbor, an Ann Arbor, Mich.-based energy storage systems supplier, raised $2m in seed funding led by MFV Partners. axios.link/4u7v5CW

🚑 Align Capital Partners acquired Heritage Imaging, a Boise, Idaho-based provider of mobile diagnostic imaging services to hospitals and health-care facilities. axios.link/4uEznTB

• Alpac Capital agreed to buy Eastern Europe-focused Adria News Network from Dutch media firm United Group. axios.link/4uWTigJ

• Axum Capital Partners invested in VitaHustle, a better-for-you nutrition line co-founded by Kevin Hart and Ron Everline. axios.link/4dVenkf

• CVC Capital Partners is in talks to buy the food ingredients unit of International Flavors & Fragrances (NYSE: IFF) for more than $4b (including debt), per the WSJ. axios.link/4dBsbBv

🌎 Eurazeo acquired a majority stake in T1A Group, a Danish IT asset disposition company. axios.link/4dHzXbC

• HSG is the frontrunner for Blackstone's 45% stake in German high-end camera maker Leica, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4dRWy5x

⚡ Stonepeak Partners may end $2b takeover talks for Yinson, a listed Malaysian energy infrastructure company, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3Rs1o21

Elon Musk yesterday tweeted that SpaceX's massive compute deal with Anthropic "is a 180 day lease with 90 day notice mutual cancellation thereafter" and that SpaceX "has not committed to leasing Colossus for years, although it's possible that may be what happens."

• SpaceX's S-1 filing, which is expected to be amended soon with pricing information, said that the Anthropic agreement ran through May 2029.

• Entrata, a Lehi, Utah-based provider of multifamily rental management software, filed for an IPO that Renaissance Capital estimates could raise $500m. It plans to list on the NYSE (ENT), and is backed by Silver Lake, TPP, HGGC, and Dragoneer. axios.link/4uE6eb1

• Tribeca Strategic Acquisition, a tech SPAC led by Timothy Ramdeen (Hudson Strategic Advisors), raised $175m in its IPO. axios.link/43oakZf

• Asana (NYSE: ASAN) acquired StackAI, a no-code AI workflow platform that had raised nearly $20m from firms like Lobby Capital, Life Extension Ventures, and Gradient Ventures. axios.link/4o46Y6U

• Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) agreed to acquire MaintainX, an SF-based asset maintenance and operations platform, for $3.6b in cash. MaintainX had raised around $250m in VC funding, most recently last year at a $2.5b valuation, from firms like Amity Ventures, Bessemer Venture Partners, Bain Capital Ventures, D.E. Shaw Ventures, August Capital, Founders Circle Capital, Sozo Ventures, and Fifth Down Capital. axios.link/4dEMVs0

• CoStar Group (Nasdaq: CSGP) agreed to acquire Zonda, a Newport Beach, Calif.-based provider of residential construction data and real estate marketplaces, for $800m in cash, from MidOcean Partners. axios.link/431ZRCk

• Japan Investment Corp. is weighing a sale of chipmaking materials provider JSR, which it took private two years ago for $6b, per Reuters. axios.link/4wN5CkK

• Kingswood is seeking to sell Branding Iron, a private-label beef business that could fetch at least $450m, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4tYJdyh

• Palo Alto Networks (Nasdaq: PANW) acquired Portkey, an SF-based AI gateway startup that had raised around $18m from Elevation Capital and Lightspeed. axios.link/4tYFWyZ

🚑 PetIQ, a Bansk Group portfolio company, sold its VIP Petcare veterinary services business to Tractor Supply Co. (Nasdsaq: TSCO). axios.link/3PTQj9c

🙏 Glorify, a Christian daily devotional app that had raised over $80m from firms like SoftBank, agreed to merge with Confidein, a maker of connected prayer rings. axios.link/3PKOCLs

🚑 Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) signed a cancer drug development deal with China's Innovent Biologics (HK: 1801) that includes a $650m upfront payment and could be worth a total of $10.5b. axios.link/4fOyK4Y

• Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI) has paused merger talks with iHeartMedia (Nasdaq: IHRT), per the NY Times.

• Volara Motorsports Group, an Austin, Texas-based motorsports holding company, acquired Lynx Motor Works, an Austin-based supercar manufacturer, including EV retrofits. axios.link/4a1jyOh

⚡️ Voss Capital, an activist investor, is asking Sempra (NYSE: SRE) to spin off its Oncor electric utility business in Texas, per Reuters. axios.link/3Q9EjRd

⚡️ Actis held a $2.5b first close of a $6b-targeted energy fund. axios.link/4u16bVu

• Bridgepoint is nearing a €5b close for a European direct lending fund, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4dM7OBP

⚡️ NextEnergy Capital of London raised $974m for a solar- and storage-focused PE fund. axios.link/4nTBAI2

• Michele Griffin joined Lightning Capital as a partner and COO. She previously was with a16z. Lightening is in market with a $100m-targeted second fund. axios.link/3Pr9QOo

• Ali Shams joined Quad-C Management as a managing director of portfolio optimization. He previously was with H.I.G. Capital. axios.link/4o48iqo

• Tikehau Capital promoted Guillaume Arnaud to head of France and deputy CEO. axios.link/43BAG9I

Snowflake yesterday defied SaaS stock gravity, after reporting better-than-expected numbers on both the top and bottom lines.

• It should provide some comfort to private equity and credit investors with SaaS-stuffed portfolios, suggesting that not all is lost to the AI altar.
• Yes, but: Salesforce also beat Wall Street expectations, and its stock still sank.

Go deeper.