Do public markets have enough capital to absorb three trillion dollar IPOs? Probably. But it won't happen without some fallout.

The big picture: AI giants OpenAI and Anthropic and the newly combined SpaceX and xAI have been reported to be preparing to go public as soon as this year, and public investors have already been cycling out of sectors over AI disruption fears.

Zoom in: Mutual funds and similar public market investors often have a defined portfolio rules, so sentiment alone won't drive those managers to AI stocks. They also have to balance risk and compliance.

• Since AI is bucketed into tech, companies in that sector that could be in the first shockwave.

Between the lines: There's some argument that the current software selloff has hit its zenith, with investors parking that capital into AI proxy companies. "Even Rolls Royce is doing really well because they make engines that go inside data centers," says Lead Edge Capital partner Zach Ullman.

• But that means repositioning post those IPOs could ripple into AI proxies.
• "I wouldn't be surprised to see a shift in allocation from [aerospace and defense] toward SpaceX," Emma Norchet, lead private technology investor on T. Rowe Price's PE team, says.

Flashback: Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO is the only near-comparable listing, and that's imperfect. It only listed on the local Tadawul, and it was bulwarked by domestic rather than international investors.

• But there were inarguable signs it had an impact. Chevron and Shell were down some 2% and BP some 7.2% in London between Aramco's filing and listing, while crude oil futures were up some 1.5% in the period.

What we're watching: Family offices and the retail investor crowd will finally have direct access to AI. And they aren't as restricted as some of the larger fund managers on sector allocation.

Alternative asset manager Blue Owl said Thursday it is moving away from regular quarterly buybacks in a semi-liquid private credit fund focused on retail investors.

Why it matters: This decision fans fears about liquidity in private credit markets.

• It also comes as alternative asset managers are trying to carve out a bigger spot in the retail market.

Between the lines: Blue Owl is instead moving to periodic payouts from repayments, asset sales, earnings, and other deals.

• Blue Owl also sold some $1.4 billion in loan assets, including some $600 million from the aforementioned Blue Owl Capital Corporation II fund. The loans were priced at 99.7% of par value.

The bottom line: Shares of Blue Owl are down 6.5% in pre-market trading, and 50% in the last year.

• Legora, a Swedish legaltech startup, is in talks to raise $400m at an over $5b valuation, per Forbes. Accel is participating. axios.link/4aEgTth

🚑 Korsana Biosciences, a Waltham, Mass.-based Alzheimer's biotech, raised $175m raised across seed and Series A. Wellington Management and TCGX led the A, joined by JPMorgan Life Sciences Private Capital, Janus Henderson Investors, Sanofi Ventures and Foresite Capital. axios.link/4rXdKfc

• Cogent Security, an SF-based vulnerability management company, raised a $42m Series A led by Bain Capital Ventures, with participation from Greylock Partners, Definition and individual investors. axios.link/4rT1rR5

• Efficient Computer, a Pittsburgh-based maker of energy-efficient processors, raised $60m in Series A funding led by Triatomic Capital. Eclipse, Union Square Ventures, Overlap Holdings, Box Group, RTX Ventures, Toyota Ventures, and Overmatch Ventures joined. axios.link/4cyw1Lo

• Selector, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based observability and network intelligence company, raised $32m valuing it at $375m. AVP led, with participation from Ansa Capital, Two Bear Capital, and Sinewave Ventures. selector.ai

• Eagle Wireless, a Cleveland-based cellular module manufacturer, raised $30m in Series B funding from Asymmetric Capital Partners and The O.H.I.O. Fund. axios.link/4qQlG0Z

• Avantos, a New York-based onboarding system for financial institutions, raised $25m in Series A funding. Bessemer Venture Partners led, joined by The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America, SEI, and Vanguard. axios.link/4aJJYnp

• Kombo, a data infrastructure company, raised $25m in Series A funding. Volition Capital led, joined by Acadian Ventures, 468 Capital and Y Combinator. axios.link/4ruoIsU

• Stable Money, an Indian fixed income investment startup, raised a $25m round led by Peak XV Partners, with participation from existing investors Fundamentum Partnership, Z47 and RTP Global. axios.link/4rXdNro

• Stacks, an Amsterdam-based accounting AI company, raised $23m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Lightspeed led, joined by EQT Ventures, General Catalyst and S16VC. axios.link/4rUa1iv

• Solid, a New York-based startup adding business context to data, raised $20m in seed funding led by Team8 and SignalFire, per Axios Pro. axios.link/3OP5xLN

• Venice, a New York-based cybersecurity platform, raised a $20m Series A. IVP led, joined by Index Ventures. axios.link/3OyAgN3

• Rainfall Health, an SF-based reimbursement platform for hospitals and medical groups, raised $15m in Series A funding. Two Bear Capital led. axios.link/4rquc8b

• Grotto AI, a coach for apartment leasing agents, raised $10m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Iconiq led, joined by Asymmetric Capital Partners. axios.link/4aYRax2

• Odynn, a New York-based platform for launching travel and loyalty programs, raised $9.5m in seed funding co-led by Bonfire Ventures and Fiat Ventures. odynn.com

• Monark Markets, an NYC-based private markets infrastructure startup, raised $8.1m led by F-Prime, with participation from The Treasury, Commerce Ventures, Grit Capital Partners, and BBAE Holdings. axios.link/3OAGNXD

• Copla, a European financial services compliance startup, raised €6m in Series A funding. Investors included Baltic DeepTech, Defence, Security, Resilience, Iron Wolf Capital, Operator Stack, Specialist VC, SuperHero Capital, FirstPick, NGL Ventures, and Loggerhead Partners. copla.com

🚑 Synchrony Medical, an Israel-based respiratory care company, raised $5m led by Edge Medical Ventures, with participation from the New Jersey Economic Development Authority, Broadfin Holdings, Consensus Business Group. axios.link/46Knm4Q

• Ariel Alternatives acquired Front Line Power Construction, a Houston-based electrical construction and power infrastructure company. Cherokee Nation Businesses took a minority stake. axios.link/4kFeSSe

• BayPine agreed to acquire Relation, a Chicago-based insurance broker, from Aquiline Capital Partners. axios.link/4c31YeH

• Centralis Group, backed by HGGC, acquired PINE Advisor Solutions, a Denver-based provider of fund services. axios.link/4qNqAvv

• Cerberus Capital Management acquired Vivace International, a propulsion tanks and aerospace systems company. axios.link/46MMNCR

• CVC Capital Partners is exploring the sale of D-Marin, a Mediterranean marina operator, for around €1b. axios.link/4qLiunh

• FCH, backed by Audax, acquired Axiflow Technologies, a sanitary twin-screw pump solution. axios.link/4kJjlDH

• Flow Control Management, a portfolio company of Audax Partners, acquired Kingston Valve Co., a Torrance, Calif.-based industrial valve maker, from Storm Manufacturing Group. axios.link/4kR2Aqg

• The Heritage Group acquired Forta, a Minneapolis-based manufacturer of synthetic fibers for asphalt and concrete, from Riverarch Equity Partners. axios.link/4apUFwz

• Leonard Green & Partners will take Mister Car Wash (NYSE: MCW) private, buying the remaining 33% of the company's outstanding stock and valuing it at $3.1b. axios.link/4amthiU

• Pye-Barker Fire & Safety, backed by Altas Partners and Leonard Green & Partners, acquired CARE Security & Monitoring, a Louisville, Ky.-based security systems provider. axios.link/46VkKkE

• Reddy Ice, a portfolio company of SCI Capital Partners, acquired Arctic Glacier, a provider of ice products and services, from Carlyle. axios.link/4cH6DDc

🚑 The Riverside Company acquired Western Botanicals, a vitamins and supplements development organization. axios.link/4ruZ6Mw

🚑 Averin Capital Acquisition, a health and life sciences SPAC, raised $250m. axios.link/3ZcKyVh

• NewHold Investment IV, an industrial tech SPAC, filed to raise $175m. axios.link/4asYbX2

🚑 Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS) agreed to acquire Eucalyptus, an Australian digital health company, for $1.15b. Blackbird Ventures and NewView Capital back Eucalyptus. axios.link/4aX6V7Q

• Kraken, a crypto exchange valued at $20b, acquired Magna, a token management platform that's raised $18m from investors including Tiger Global, Tusk Venture Partners, and Shima Capital. axios.link/3OmoJQZ

• Nexfibre, a joint venture from Liberty Global and Telefónica, agreed to acquire Netomnia, a U.K.-based alternative fiber provider, for £2b. Netomnia is backed by Advencap, DigitalBridge and Soho Square Capital. axios.link/4aTZvSK

• The estate of Paul Allen hired Allen & Co. and Latham & Watkins as advisors on its planned sale of the Seattle Seahawks. axios.link/4cw7B5i

• eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) agreed to acquire second-hand marketplace from Etsy (NYSE: ETSY) for $1.2b. axios.link/4c47L3F

• Nestlé (SWX:NESN) plans to sell the remains of its ice cream business to Häagen-Dazs owner Froneri, a joint venture by PAI and Nestle. axios.link/4rubEnt

• Scopely took a majority stake in Loom Games, a Turkish gamemaker. axios.link/4tIQRxX

🚑 Frist Cressey Ventures, founded by former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, raised $425m for its fourth fund. https://axios.link/4rp8voZ

• Guardian Capital Partners raised $441m for its fourth fund. axios.link/40j9ZFa

• HGGC, co-founded by Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young, raised $3.2b for its fifth fund. axios.link/40i0R3x

• Soundcore Capital Partners closed its third fund with $450m. axios.link/46Bdyub

• CVC Capital Partners named Sanjay Nayar, former KKR India chief, as chairman of its advisory board in the country. axios.link/4qIqmWA

• DCVC promoted Rachel Slaybaugh to general partner. dcvc.com

• Lead Edge Capital promoted Zach Ullman to partner. He now co-leads the firm's special situations team. leadedge.com

🚑 Primary Venture Partners named Kieran Chacko as biotech and health care incubation venture partner. He was previously principal at Flagship Pioneering. axios.link/470THEC

Shares of toilet maker Toto have soared in trading over the last year, as investors say its advanced ceramics segment produces components used in memory chips, and could benefit from the AI boom.