Emptying out the notebook before buying chili ingredients...

It's been a wild week for tech stocks.

• First, Wall Street decided that AI will eat software, which hammered both software stocks and also shares of private equity and private credit firms with software exposure (no matter how minimal). It also caused PE-backed Liftoff Mobile to delay what had been expected to be the week's second-largest IPO.
• AI stocks then took their own tumble, as traders apparently noticed (for the first time?) that colossal capex wasn't immediately translating into profits.

My hunch is that the latter is a correction, while the former could be an extinction-level event. The question for private equity, therefore, is what happens to its slew of enterprise software investments.

The bull case is that private equity's long-term structure gives it time to adapt, particularly in areas like health care where AI accuracy isn't yet sufficient. Proactive firms already began ripping some portfolio company models down to the studs over a year ago, rather than just adding chatbots to existing products.

The bear case is that private equity might take too much comfort in customer and data moats, not realizing how quickly they can drain. Or that many PE firms don't have the in-house expertise to effect necessary changes. Playing out the string is unlikely to work, as we're quickly learning in legal-tech, and private equity isn't equipped to handle zeros like an asset class like venture capital.

🚀 Launch pad: SpaceX may be planning to go public in June, but as of earlier this week it hadn't yet hired IPO bankers.

• It's had discussions with just about everyone — many in depth — but that's different than signing a formal mandate.

🇯🇵 Look east: Yesterday I asked a top private equity exec where in the world he'd put his own money right now. The answer came quick: Japan.

• We've discussed this a bit before, and may again soon, but Japan's shift toward a shareholder-centric economy has created a ton of private equity opportunity.

💰 Clarification: KKR's deal for Arctos Partners could ultimately approach $2 billion, rather than the $1.4 billion headline number, based on up to $550 million in earnouts that run through 2031.

🏈 It's just math: Investors should be rooting for the Patriots to beat the Seahawks on Super Bowl Sunday.

• The S&P 500 is up an average of 12.3% in the six years that New England has won the Super Bowl. It was only up 11.4% in the year Seattle won.
• In years when New England lost the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 rose around 4.4%. But when Seattle lost, it climbed around 6.8%.
• Go Pats!

Holtec International, a Jupiter, Florida-based nuclear power engineering company, filed confidential U.S. IPO papers, as scooped by Axios Pro's Alan Neuhauser.

Why it's the BFD: Holtec is an avatar for how nuclear energy's fortunes have changed.

• The 40-year-old company spent most of its life dismantling U.S. nuclear power plants, but now is working to become the first to restart a shuttered one. It also is developing small reactors.

The bottom line: The Palisades nuclear plant on the shore of Lake Michigan was powered down by Entergy in 2022 after five decades of of use. It's now expected to come back online later this quarter.

• Fundamental, an SF-based foundation model builder for tabular and relational data, raised $225m in Series A funding at a $1.4b post-money valuation. Oak HC/FT led, joined by Valor Equity Partners, Battery Ventures, Salesforce Ventures, and Hetz Ventures. axios.link/4a1cFwV

• Goodfire, an SF-based AI interpretability startup, raised $150m in Series B funding at a $1.25b valuation. B Capital led, joined by Menlo Ventures and Lightspeed. axios.link/4qooH8C

• Bound, a London-based FX risk management platform, raised $24.5m in Series A funding. AlbionVC led, joined by Notion Capital and GoHub Ventures. axios.link/46sKFQr

• Daytona, a compute infrastructure startup, raised $24m in Series A funding. FirstMark Capital led, joined by Pace Capital, Upfront Ventures, Darkmode, and E2VC, Datadog, and Figma Ventures. axios.link/3LU8KZJ

• Sapiom, an SF-based startup that helps agents buy their own tech tools, raised $15m in seed funding. Accel led, joined by Okta Ventures, Gradient Ventures, Array Ventures, Menlo Ventures, Anthropic, and Coinbase Ventures. axios.link/4rrYmr8

🌎 Phathom Technologies, a Canadian carbon capture and marine storage startup, raised C$12.5m in equity and grant funding, per Axios Pro. Propeller Ventures led, joined by New Brunswick Innovation Foundation, Invest Nova Scotia, and Carmeuse Ventures. axios.link/3NWsDzW

• Spire, a Dallas-based pay-by-bank provider, raised $10m in Series B funding led by Continental Investment Partners. axios.link/4rbWh2A

• Advance, an NYC-based insurance payments fintech, raised $8.55m in seed funding led by NVP Capital. axios.link/4ry8E90

• Uplift360, a U.K. defense supply chain startup focused on turning waste into virgin-quality materials, raised €7.4m in seed funding. Exantia led, joined by NATO Innovation Fund. axios.link/4kkLWyI

• Geolinks, a French developer of underground geophysical monitoring tech, raised €6m in seed funding from Audacia, Bpifrance, BRGM Invest, and InnoEnergy. axios.link/4kkQsgU

• Pluto Markets, a Danish neobroker and investment platform, raised $6m in seed funding led by Seed Capital. axios.link/4afGvMS

• Willo, a Finnish wireless power startup, raised €2.9m in a pre-seed round led by byFounders, with participation from Interface Capital, Unruly Capital, and Wave Ventures. axios.link/4akYlhT

• Valeria, a Spanish payroll platform for frontline workers, raised $2m led by Venture Friends, with participation from Fortino Capital and 10k Ventures. axios.link/4bFaQXS

• Fintower, a Swedish FP&A platform, raised €1.5m in seed funding from Chalmers Ventures and Akka. axios.link/3MflYQD

• Accela, portfolio company of Berkshire Partners and Francisco Partners, bought Novotx, an infrastructure asset and work management platform. axios.link/4bzjxTt

• Foresight Group invested in AsiaVerify, a Singaporean regtech intelligence platform. axios.link/3Oa57PQ

• Guardsquare, a Verdane portfolio company, acquired the extended threat defense unit of Verimatrix (Paris: VMX). axios.link/3MojCPA

• H.I.G. Capital completed its acquisition of Virginia Beach, Va.-based supply chain manufacturer CargoTuff. axios.link/4qldohg

• Igneo Infrastructure Partners agreed to acquire a data center portfolio belonging to a joint venture between CVC DIF and Northleaf Capital. axios.link/3ObFJt3

• Pearl Meyer, a Wellesley, Mass.-based executive comp and consulting firm backed by Coalesce Capital, bought boutique consultancy Ampersand Leadership Group. axios.link/4r6x0qI

• PrimeFlight Aviation Services, a portfolio company of Capitol Meridian Partners and The Sterling Group, acquired GAT Airline Ground Support, a Peachtree City, Ga.-based airline ground handling and catering company, from Atlantic Street Capital. axios.link/4tkEw2L

• WestCap invested in Canadian sports nutrition company Fit Foods. axios.link/4cb0wXx

• Woven Solutions, a Reston, VA.-based national security software company backed by Falfurrias Management Partners, acquired Apira Technologies, a McLean, VA-based software platform backed by JHH vc. axios.link/3O0LWYP

🚑 Agomab Therapeutics, a Belgian Phase 2 fibrosis biotech, raised $200m in its IPO. It priced in the middle of its $15-$17 range, for a $780m market cap, and will list on the Nasdaq (AGMB). The company raised over $330m from firms like LSP (11.1% pre-IPO stake), Fidelity (9.4%), Pontifax (8.4%), Sanofi (7.5%), Redmile (7.1%), Cormorant (6.8%), Pfizer (5.7%), and Canaan Partners (5.5%). axios.link/4a0AvJd

• Cambridge Acquisition, a tech SPAC led by Michael Cam-Phung (Tekni-Plex) and Brent Cox (Subtext Holdings), raised $200m in its IPO. axios.link/3YsPdSz

• Cantor Equity Partners VI, the 15th SPAC formed by Cantor Fitzgerald, raised $100m in its IPO. axios.link/4qeWrWM

• Hennessy Capital Investment VIII, an industrials and energy SPAC formed by Hennessy Capital, raised $210m in an upsized IPO. axios.link/4iF9SML

• Liftoff Mobile, a Redwood City, Calif.-based mobile ad software firm backed by Blackstone and General Atlantic, postponed its IPO. axios.link/4aEDdTZ

• Once Upon a Farm, a Berkeley, Calif.-based organic baby food maker raised $198m in its IPO. It priced in the middle of its $17-$19 range, for an $811m fully diluted valuation, and reports a $38m net loss on $177m of revenue for the first nine months of 2025. It will list on the NYSE (OFRM) and had raised nearly $100m from CAVU, Cambridge Cos., Access Capital, S2G Investments, Beechwood Capital, and co-founder Jennifer Garner. axios.link/3Lz1qm7

• SPACSphere Acquisition, led by SPAC vets Bala Padmakumar and Soumen Das, raised $150m in its IPO. axios.link/3M9tHjq

🚑 SpyGlass Pharma, a Phase 3 biotech focused on chronic eye conditions, raised $150m in its IPO. It priced in the middle of its $15-$17 range, for a $549m fully diluted valuem, and will list on the Nasdaq (SGP). SkyGlass raised around $200m from firms like NEA (28.6% pre-IPO stake), RA Capital (19.2%), Versana Capital (14%), Gilde Healthcare (8.3%), Sands Capital (8.3%), and Samsara BioCapital (6.6%). axios.link/4aiuOq5

• I Squared Capital is considering a sale process for Asian data center business BDx, which could fetch around $2b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/45TDl05

• Kirin (Tokyo: 2503) agreed to sell Kentucky bourbon brand Four Roses to E&J Gallo Winery for up to $775m. axios.link/4klf5d7

• Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) agreed to acquire Legend, a digital sports and gaming media network, for up to $1.2b (including $900m upfront). axios.link/4ryllRl

⚡ Kodiak Gas Services (NYSE: KGS) agreed to acquire Pearland, Texas-based Distributed Power Solutions for $675m in cash and stock. axios.link/4tjw3Nd

• Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO) has ended takeover talks with Glencore (LSE: GLEN), which means this flirtation ended the same way is it did in both 2014 and 2024. Had the two merged, it would have created the world's largest mining company. axios.link/4kkkQYJ

• Winston Gu joined Paul Hastings as a partner in the law firm's emerging companies and VC practice. He previously was with Cooley. axios.link/45RmMBZ

• Kyle Samani is leaving Multicoin Capital, the crypto-focused VC firm he co-founded. axios.link/4a3IC80

• Soundcore Capital Partners promoted Tejas Tope to VP of investments and Nate Reilly to VP of originations. axios.link/4azdKfu