America's retreat from vaccines is likely to reduce venture investment in vax startups, and also could cut into the valuations of some private equity-backed clinical research organizations, according to investors in the sector.

Why it matters: Many vaccines save lives and future health-care costs. It's a societal self-own.

Driving the news: Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel last week told Bloomberg that his company doesn't plan any new infectious disease vaccine studies:

• "You cannot make an ROI if you don't have access to the U.S. market because of delays regulatory-wise, or your market is much smaller because you don't have a recommendation by the government ... There's a lot of vaccines that I think would have huge impact on public health that we're unfortunately not able to take to Phase 3."

State of play: Bancel's comments came just weeks after the Trump administration overhauled the childhood vaccination schedule — dramatically reducing the number of recommended shots — and the same day that the federal vaccine advisory panel's chair questioned the continued need for polio and measles vaccines.

• It's also against the backdrop of skyrocketing measles cases in the U.S., which is at risk of losing its measles "elimination status."

Zoom in: Vaccine developers comprise just a small slice of early-stage biotech investing, but the sector has had some big wins beyond Moderna.

• London-based Vicebio, for example, was acquired last year by Sanofi for $1.6 billion. Affinivax was bought by GSK for $3 billion in 2022, and Vaxcyte went public in 2020 and now has nearly a $7 billion market cap.
• There also are a slew of clinical trial site companies that rely, at least in part, on vaccine study revenue. It's a sector that private equity has been actively consolidating. Same goes for contract manufacturers.

Behind the scenes: Not everyone expects the infectious disease vaccine TAM to shrink, at least not in the long-term.

• Jacob Glanville, founder and CEO of VC-backed Centivax, says that he expects the disruption to be temporary: "As more American children continue to die from measles and other preventable diseases, policy and opinion will shift more in favor...
• "I grew up in a Tzutujil village in Guatemala during a civil war. When the war finally ended in 1996 and village got better access to vaccines and deworming medicine, everyone took them. Because everyone had been living the alternative."

Big Shot Pictures, an animation company founded by former Paramount Global co-CEO Brian Robbins, raised around $100 million in startup funding.

Why it's the BFD: This is modern media in a microcosm. Test a ton of stuff cheaply on social media to see what resonates, before going long-form with the winners, all while avoiding a studio system that's rife with union concerns about AI.

Zoom in: Investors include CAA, Greycroft, MarcyPen Capital Partners, Sony Pictures, and ValueAct Capital.

The bottom line: This is the second time Robbins has launched an alt studio. His first effort, AwesomenessTV, sold to Viacom for around $300 million in 2018.

• Decagon, an AI concierge startup, raised $250m in Series D funding at a $4.5b valuation. Coatue and Index Ventures led, joined by ChemistryVC, Definition Capital, Starwood Capital and insiders a16z, A*, Accel, Avra, Bain Capital Ventures, Elad Gil, Forerunner, Ribbit Capital, and T.Capital. axios.link/4qOR4Og

⚡️Terra Energy, a Houston-based seller of home solar as a short-term subscription, raised $105m in equity and debt, per Axios Pro. The equity came from ARC PE and Azora Capital. axios.link/4c0xcD3

• Eliyan, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based maker of connectivity products for computing systems, raised $50m from AMD, Arm, Coherent, Meta, Samsung Catalyst Fund, and Intel Capital. axios.link/49NlvhQ

🚑 Indigo, a provider of liability insurance to physicians, raised $50m in Series B funding, per Axios Pro. Rubicon Founders led, joined by Town Hall Ventures and Optum Ventures. axios.link/4q53sby

• Outtake, an NYC-based automation platform for cybersecurity, raised $40m in Series B funding. Iconiq led, joined by CRV and S32. axios.link/4qod8OR

🚑 Recare, a German AI platform for hospitals and care facilities, raised up to €37m (including a €7m option) led by DNV, with CIBC Innovation Banking participating. axios.link/4a1wMJZ

• Northslope, a Denver-based customized AI application developer, raised $22m in Series A funding led by Friends & Family Capital and Goldcrest Capital, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4bXifl9

• Mesh Security, a Palo Alto-based cybersecurity mesh architecture startup, raised $12m in Series A funding. Lobby Capital led, joined by S Ventures and BrightPixel Capital. axios.link/3NLPyOf

• Limy, an NYC-based brand optimization startup, raised $10m led by Flybridge with participation from a16z speedrun, Axiom, Clarim, Communitas, JRV, and AnD. axios.link/3ZJoWQt

• Dealroom.co, a Dutch data platform for startups and investors, raised $7m. Índico Capital Partners led, joined by Rabobank and insiders Beringea, Shoe Investments, and Knight Capital. axios.link/4brjhFZ

• Bleap, an on-chain finance app founded by ex-Revolut execs, raised $6m in seed funding led by Blossom Capital. axios.link/4q3avS0

🌎 DexMat, a Houston-based advanced materials developer, raised $5m in seed funding led by Non Sibi Ventures. axios.link/4t4Uk9L

• Sentra, developer of an organizational memory system, raised $5m in seed funding led by a16z and Together Fund. axios.link/3ZAJf2z

🌎 Carbonaide, a Finnish green concrete tech developer, raised €3.7m from Vantaan Energia, Redstone, Ihantola Invest, Zero Carbon Future Group, Product Ecology, Helkama Kiinteistöt, and Ikorni Invest. axios.link/4tnZZYP

⚡️Emobi, an SF-based EV charging startup, raised $3.4m in seed funding. Florida Funders led, joined by insiders Aves Ventures, Collaborative Fund, Gaingels, Gener8tor, Goodwater Capital, Oasis Capital, OneSixOne Ventures, Ride Wave Ventures, and YC. axios.link/4t7k84X

• Oro, an LA-based homeownership employee benefits platform, raised $3m in led by Slauson & Co., with participation from Northwestern Mutual Future Ventures and Bronze Valley. axios.link/4k1UiLE

• Levellr, a Discord insights platform for brands and game studios, raised $2.5m led by Fuel Ventures. axios.link/3NN7MPp

🌎 Twogee Biotech, a German developer of enzyme solutions for industrial conversion of biomass into sustainable raw materials, raised €2.2m in seed funding from HTG, Bayern Kapital, AgriFoodTech Venture Alliance,and Heinz Entsorgung. axios.link/49XQR40

Carlyle agreed to buy most foreign assets of Russia's Lukoil, which has been hit by U.S sanctions. Flashback.

🚑 Accel-KKR invested in Exxat, a Warren, N.J.-based provider of clinical and experiential education tech. axios.link/4t6ELOI

• AEA Investors acquired Boston-based digital marketing firm 829 Studios from CIVC Partners. axios.link/3O9XusB

• AutoManager, a Beekman Group portfolio company, acquired Macrosmith, a provider of document management software for auto retailers. axios.link/49KDwxc

🚑 Bain Capital and Blackstone moved to the second round of bidding for British vitamins purveyor Vitabiotics, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4q4u8sU

⚡ Capstreet acquired TOPS Field Services, a Huffman, Texas-based provider of inspection, overhaul, and maintenance of gas and steam turbines, LNG equipment, and generators. axios.link/3Z6Q3EY

• Conscious Capital Growth and Petra Capital Partners acquired RD Nutrition, a provider of dietitian consulting services to health-care facilities. axios.link/4t2KVzq

🚑 Healthcare Holding Schweiz, backed by KKA Partners, acquired PlusOrtho Prothetik, a Swiss maker of orthopedic implants and fixation systems. axios.link/4a2p9TA

• Incline Equity Partners invested in MCCi, a Tallahassee, Fla.-based enterprise content management and workflow automation solution. Century Park Capital Partners exited. axios.link/4pYRd09

• Nordic Capital agreed to acquire majority stake in Swiss fund management firm 1741 Group, axios.link/49XWFdL

• Pavement Preservation Group, a portfolio company of The Sterling Group, acquired both Holbrook Asphalt and Integrated Pavement Solutions. axios.link/4qNkpbZ

⚡ RESA Power, a Kohlberg & Co. portfolio company, acquired Société Générale d'Électrotechnique, a Canadian provider of development and maintenance of electrical utilities infrastructure. axios.link/4re9FD6

• Rover Group, a Seattle-based pet-sitting firm owned by Blackstone, acquired Meowtel, a cat-sitting marketplace backed by Hustle Fund, SaaSCraft Ventures and Hands On Angel. axios.link/4rjdV4a

• Rubicon Technology Partners invested in Procede Software, a San Diego-based provider of dealer management systems for the commercial vehicle industry. axios.link/4t81da8

• Stonepeak is investing $2.4b for a 25% stake in a shipping JV formed alongside CMA CGM Group. axios.link/3NMgu0j

• Jersey Mike's, the sub chain bought last year by Blackstone for $8b, hired JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to lead an IPO that could come in Q3, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4k93Gxh

🚑 Agomab Therapeutics, a Belgian Phase 2 fibrosis biotech, set IPO terms to 12.5m shares at $15-$17. It would have a $780m market cap, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (AGMB). The company raised over $330m from firms like LSP (11.1% pre-IPO stake), Fidelity (9.4%), Pontifax (8.4%), Sanofi (7.5%), Redmile (7.1%), Cormorant (6.8%), Pfizer (5.7%), and Canaan Partners (5.5%). axios.link/4bkXcZH

• Ethos Technologies, an SF-based life insurance marketplace, raised $200m in its IPO. It priced in the middle of its $18-$20 range, for a $1.3b fully diluted value, and will list on the Nasdaq (LIFE). Ethos raised over $400m from firms like Sequoia Capital, Accel, GV, and SoftBank. axios.link/4b9rQVY

• K2 Capital Acquisition, a SPAC focused on humanoid robotics and advanced energy, raised $120m in an IPO. axios.link/46u7Ed8

• KRAKacquisition, a digital assets SPAC backed by Kraken, Tribe Capital, and Natural Capital, raised $300m in an upsized IPO. axios.link/4jGD3PS

• PicPay, a Brazilian digital banking company, raised $434m in its IPO. The company priced at the top of its $16-$19 range, and will list on the Nasdaq (PICS). axios.link/49NvX91

• Sky Acquisition Group, an AI-focused SPAC led by CXApp CEO Khurram Sheikh, filed for a $150m IPO. axios.link/3LUJXog

🚀 Space Asset Acquisition, a space SPAC led by Peter Ort (Cambrium Capital Management), raised $200m in its IPO. axios.link/4ox7ZDm

🚑 Veradermics, a New Haven, Conn.-based hair-loss biotech, set IPO terms to 13.35m shares at $14-$16. It would have a $500m market cap, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the NYSE (MANE). The pre-revenue company raised around $260m from SR One, Longitude Capital, Viking Global, J.W. Childs, Marshall Wace, Invus, Columbia Threadneedle, Infinitium, and LifeSci Venture Partners. axios.link/4rpsP9j

🚀 York Space Systems, a Denver-based small satellite provider owned by AE Industrial Partners, raised $629m in its IPO. It priced at the top of its $30-$34 range, for a $4.3b fully diluted valuation, and plans to list on the NYSE (YSS). axios.link/4qw6Mh6

• Automation Anywhere reportedly is in reverse merger talks with C3.AI (NYSE: AI), per The Information. Automation Anywhere's investors include Norwest, Salesforce Ventures, Workday Ventures, General Atlantic, Goldman Sachs Growth Equity, and NEA. axios.link/49MZgsn

• Carlyle agreed to sell Iwasaki Electric, a Japanese provider of light sources and fixtures, to Japan's Stanley Electric Co. axios.link/4roQ6Iw

• Handshake, backed by Kleiner Perkins, Notable Capital, and EQT Ventures, acquired data label auditing startup Cleanlab, which had raised $30m from firms like Bain Capital Ventures, TQ Ventures, and Menlo Ventures. axios.link/49PlOsw

• VSE (Nasdaq: VESC) agreed to buy Atlanta-based aerospace MRO company Precision Aviation Group for around $2b in cash and stock from GenNx360 Capital Partners. axios.link/4rfO5hr

• Air Baltic, Latvia's state-backed carrier, is seeking to sell a minority stake after IPO plans stalled, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4k4ctjP

• International Paper (NYSE: IP) plans to spin off its European packaging business into a separate, publicly traded company. axios.link/3NMQDoX

⛳ LIV Golf, the Saudi-backed pro golf league, plans to sell minority stakes in its teams, per Bloomberg. Team valuations could approach $500m. axios.link/4k1VaQq

🚑 Steel Partners offered to buy Israeli medical device maker InMode (Nasdaq: INMD) for around $1.1b. axios.link/4aikr5A

• Universal Music Group acquired a minority stake in music app Stationhead. axios.link/4q1iDml

🚑 Bertelsmann, the German media conglomerate, launched a $200m health-tech venture fund, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4a2AOls

⚡ Boyne Capital raised a single-asset continuation fund for Pilot Energy, a San Diego-based energy advisory. axios.link/3NIkNK4

🌎 Daphni, a French VC firm focused on societal and environmental challenges, raised €260m for its latest fund. axios.link/4qGnVVk

• Equality Asset Management of Boston closed its second tech PE fund with $575m. axios.link/4kfQuqf

• Seed+speed Ventures of Germany raised €90m for its third fund. axios.link/45DiUVa

⚡️ Voyager Ventures raised $275m for its fifth fund, emphasizing energy and national security over the firm's traditional climate-tech focus. axios.link/4qNm1T2

• William Blair promoted Jake Stuiver — a reformed PE trade reporter — to managing director and head of LP-led secondaries. axios.link/4kplPqN

• HSBC Alternative Investments promoted Kutty Dutta to head of private markets. axios.link/4t7kubN