SPAC investors this week made a big bet on the MAGA economy.

• Or at least a big bet that some other investors believe in the MAGA economy.

Driving the news: Colombier Acquisition Corp. III raised $260 million in its IPO, above its $250 million target, and a source tells me that it will end up with around $300 million after underwriters exercised the greenshoe.

• Colombier is led by Omeed Malik, managing partner of 1789 Capital — the Florida-based venture capital firm where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner.
• Trump Jr. is a director on the SPAC, as are Fox News Channel host Laura Ingraham, onetime "SPAC King" Chamath Palihapitiya, and former U.S. senate candidate Blake Masters.

Zoom in: Colombier's prior SPACs merged with Public Square, an ecommerce marketplace that promotes sellers with conservative values, and online firearms retailer GrabAGun.

• Both have performed miserably. Public Square is trading below a buck per share, while GrabAGun closed yesterdat just shy of $3 per share.
• Masters and Trump Jr. are on both companies' boards.

Behind the scenes: So how did a SPAC sponsor with that sort of track record manage to outperform its own expectations?

• The basic answer is that SPAC IPO investors rarely play for the long term, and SPAC sponsors are more akin to investment banks than private equity firms.
• Both Public Square and GrabAGun shares popped after their mergers closed, hitting around $36 and $17 respectively. SPAC investors who bought at $10 per share were often the sellers, leaving others holding the bag.
• The cynical take is that MAGA retail investors got left holding the bag and will again. The counter is that Colombier is now operating in a MAGA-led economy, and thus will be able to seek out stronger targets.

The big question: Colombier III has around two years until it needs to complete a merger, and it's quite possible that Democrats will control at least one house of Congress by 2027.

• If that happens and the SPAC hasn't yet closed its merger, it's possible that there will be fewer secondary buyers.
• 1789, which is said to now manage around $2 billion, seems to be telling its own investors not to worry — Trump controls the executive branch through the end of 2028, which means he still makes many of the rules.

The bottom line: The first two Colombier SPAC IPOs priced into Biden's economy, raging against the machine. This one is part of the system.

Mundi Ventures of Spain held a €750 million first close for a European deep-tech fund called Kembara, which is targeting a total of €1 billion with a €1.25 billion hard cap.

Why it's the BFD: The relationship between Europe and the U.S. is increasingly strained.

• This will support new startup opportunities in Europe, as local technologists return home, and also highlights Europe's relative lack of local capital.

Zoom in: European Investment Fund is anchoring Kembara with a €350 million commitment, the largest check it's ever written for a tech vehicle.

• Mundi is led by Javier Santiso, who previously helped lead Malaysian sovereign wealth fund Khazanah and is former director general of the OECD.

The bottom line: "Europeans need to wake up. We're responsible for so much deep-tech innovation, particularly around industrial IT and climate, but rely on the U.S. for the funding. €1 billion might not sound huge to someone in the U.S., but this is the largest deep-tech fund ever raised here." — Javier Santiso to Axios

• ElevenLabs, an AI audio startup, raised $500m in Series D funding at an $11b valuation. Sequoia Capital led, joined by Lightspeed, Evantic, Bond, and insiders a16z and Iconiq. axios.link/4kifw8g

• Cerebras, a Sunnyvale, Calif.-based AI chipmaker that filed for an IPO last fall, raised $1b at a $23b valuation. Tiger Global led, joined by Benchmark, AMD, Coatue, and 1789 Capital. axios.link/3ZhD97e

• Resolve AI, an SF-based agentic AI startup that fixes software, raised $125m at a $1 billion valuation. Lightspeed led, joined by Greylock, Unusual Ventures, Artisanal Ventures, and A*. axios.link/4rq47Wa

• Anchorage Digital, an SF-based crypto custodian and bank, raised $100m from Tether at a $4.2b valuation. axios.link/4qnx7gu

• Overland AI, a Seattle-based developer of military land robots, raised $100m. 8VC led, joined by Point72 Ventures, Ascend Venture Capital, Shasta Ventures, Overmatch Ventures, Valor Equity Partners, and StepStone Group. axios.link/46yAj1x

⚡️Newcleo, a French nuclear reactor and fuel developer, raised $85m from Danieli & C., Cementir Holding NV, Orion Valves, NextChem and insiders Kairos, Indaco Ventures, Azimut Investments, the CERN pension fund, and Walter Tosto. axios.link/49Zqegv

• Accrual, an LA-based accounting platform, raised $75m in Series A funding. General Catalyst led, joined by Go Global, Pruven Capital, and Edward Jones. accrual.com

• TRM Labs, an SF-based blockchain intelligence firm, raised $70m in Series C funding at a $1b valuation. Blockchain Capital led, joined by CMT Digital, Goldman Sachs, Bessemer Venture Partners, DRW Venture Capital, YC, Brevan Howard Digital, Thoma Bravo, Alumni Ventures, Citi Ventures, and Galaxy Ventures. axios.link/3Zmny6m

🚑 Chamber, a cardiology-focused tech platform for VBC models, raised $60m in Series A equity and debt funding. Frist Cressey Ventures led. General Catalyst, AlleyCorp, American Family Ventures, Company Ventures, Optum Ventures, Healthworx Ventures, and Black Opal Ventures. axios.link/4rhQzN3

• Lawhive, a U.K. consumer legal-tech that's expanding to the U.S., raised $60m in Series B funding. Mitch Rales (Danaher) led, joined by TQ Ventures, GV, Balderton Capital, and Jigsaw. axios.link/4ccVTMF

🚑 Third Arc Bio, a Spring House, Pa.-based biotech whose lead candidate focuses on advanced solid tumors, raised $52m in Series A extension funding. A16z and insider Omega Funds led, joined by Goldman Sachs Alternatives, BVF Partners, abrdn, T. Rowe Price Associates, Marshall Wace, Hillhouse Investment, Galapagos, AbbVie Ventures, and Alderline Group. axios.link/4qSByAV

• Adaption Labs, an adaptive intelligence startup led by Cohere and Google vets, raised $50m in seed funding led by Emergence Capital Partners. axios.link/4t8tVrw

🌍 Forerunner, a provider of flood resilience software, raised $39m in Series A and B funding from Wellington Management, Union Square Ventures, Gutter Capital, Bright Ventures, SE Ventures, and Citi Impact Fund. axios.link/3ZjaVsJ

• Duna, a Dutch business identity verification startup, raised €30m in Series A funding led by CapitalG. axios.link/4qoteb9

• Turnstile, a provider of quote-to-cash software for startups, raised $29m in seed and Series A funding from OMERS Ventures, Illuminate Financial, and First Round Capital, per Axios Pro. axios.link/45QISEF

• Alinea, an NYC-based wealth management app for first-time investors, raised $22.5m in non-dilutive "user acquisition financing" from Singapore's PvX Partners. alinea-invest.com

• R3 Robotics, a Luxembourg-based developer of EV disassembly automation solutions, raised €14m in Series A funding. HG Ventures and Suma Capital led, joined by Oetker Collection, EIC Fund, Bonventure, FlixFounders, and EIT Urban Mobility. It also secured €6m in grants. axios.link/3ZiYDRa

• Nixtla, developer of a foundation model for time series forecasting, raised $16m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Energize Capital led, joined by True Ventures and GreatPoint Ventures. axios.link/4r9LpT1

• Nullify, an AI workforce for product security, raised $12.5m. SYN Ventures led, joined by Black Nova Venture Capital. axios.link/4t9UMn4

• Nomagic, a Polish robotics fulfillment startup, raised $10m in Series B extension funding led by Cogito Capital Partners. axios.link/4av9duy

• Cadastral, an AI agent for commercial real estate, raised $9.5m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Navitas Capital led, joined by JLL Spark Global Ventures, AvalonBay, Equity Residential, and 1Sharpe. axios.link/4toqT2I

🚑 Gardia, a German mobile emergency system for seniors, raised €8.5m. Peak led, joined by Amberra, Bonventure, Dieter von Holtzbrinck Ventures, and Beurer. axios.link/4rxXQYH

• 4x4 Capital acquired restaurant chain Bob Evans from Golden Gate Capital. axios.link/4tf5UPL

• Goldman Sachs Alternatives invested in LearnWell, a Plymouth, Mass.-based provider of academic and mental health services for students and their families. axios.link/4qAP0bT

• Kingswood Capital Management acquired Safran Passenger Innovations, a provider of in-flight entertainment and connectivity solutions, from Safran (Paris: SAF). The company will be renamed Rave Aerospace. axios.link/4rpOvCa

• KKR and Singtel agreed to acquire Singaporean data center operator STT GDC for US$5.2b in cash. axios.link/4caZRW8

• Liberty Waste Solutions, an Allied Industrial Partners portfolio company, acquired AJ Disposal, an Asheboro, N.C.-based residential and commercial front load firm. axios.link/4rCymcO

• Mari, the PE-backed live events group led by Ari Emanuel, acquired Bucket Listers, an events marketing firm. axios.link/4r34OFc

• Quantum Rise, backed by Erie Street Growth Partners, acquired Dhauz, a Brazilian data science and engineering firm. axios.link/4tdomZ7

⚡️Reliable Energy Partners, backed by Soundcore Capital Partners, acquired Irvington Gas, an Irvington, Ky.-based bulk-propane distributor. axios.link/4kgPySD

• Schneider Geospatial, an Align Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired Bruce Harris & Associates, a Batavia, Ill.-based GIS consultancy. axios.link/4koMTGC

• Valsoft, a Montreal-based software acquisition platform backed by Coatue and Viking Global Investors,acquired KidKare, a provider of daycare management and food program compliance software. axios.link/4r1JXlE

• Barrick Mining (NYSE: B) said it will spin off its North American gold business via an IPO. axios.link/45R46SW

• Bob's Discount Furniture, a retailer owned by Bain Capital, raised $331m in its IPO. It priced at the low end of its $17-$19 range, for a $1.3m market cap, and reports $86m of profit on $1.7b in revenue for the first nine months of 2025. Bob's will list on the (NYSE: BOBS). axios.link/4qFPHRJ

🚑 Eikon Therapeutics, a Millbrae, Calif.-based live-cell microscopy startup, raised $381m in its IPO. It priced 21.2m shares at $18, versus plans to offer 17.7m at $16-$18, for a $908m market cap. The pre-revenue company will list on the Nasdaq (EIKN) and had raised over $1b from firms like Lux Capital (17.3% pre-IPO stake), Foresite Capital (12.4%), Column Group (12.6%), Innovation Endeavors (9.4%), Soros Capital, and General Catalyst. axios.link/4rgFUkW

⚡ Forgent Power Solutions, a Dayton, Minn.-based maker of electrical distribution equipment for data centers and industrial facilities, raised $1.51b in its IPO. It priced at $27 per share ($26-$29 range), for around an $8.2b market cap. The company is owned by Neos Partners, reports $17m of net income on $753m in revenue for the fiscal year ending last June 30, and will list on the NYSE (FPS). axios.link/3LKqZRb

🚑 Generate Biomedicines, a Somerville, Mass.-based biotech focused on severe asthma, filed for a $100m IPO. The Phase 3 company plans to list on the Nasdaq (GENB) and raised nearly $700m from Flagship Ventures (58.6% pre-IPO stake), Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Alaska Permanent Fund, ADIA, Arch Venture Partners, Morningside, Modi Ventures, Amgen, NVentures, and Maps Capital. axios.link/4qh1LIc

• Dash0, an NYC-based GenAI observability platform whose backers include Accel and Cherry Ventures, acquired Lumigo, an Israeli provider of serverless and AWS-native observability that had raised $37m from Redline Capital Management, Meron Capital, Grove Ventures, Pitango Venture Capital, Vertex Ventures US and Wing Venture Capital. axios.link/4bC044G

• P10 (NYSE: PX) agreed to acquire direct lender Stellus Capital Management. axios.link/4aCU0Xx

• SiTime (Nasdaq: SITM) agreed to buy the timing business of Renesas Electronics (Tokyo: 6723) for around $2.9b in cash and stock. axios.link/4kmfnAP

• 2048 Ventures of NYC raised $82m for its third fund. axios.link/4a1xPew

• Carousel Capital raised a single-asset continuation fund for Ethos, a national provider of insurance claims investigation and medical management solutions, anchored by lead investor Dextra Partners. axios.link/4qZFcsX

• Shore Capital Partners of Chicago raised over $400m for its second industrials PE fund. axios.link/46tHvMk

• SNAK Venture Partners, a Chicago-based firm led by Pritzker Group vets Sonia Nagar and Adam Koopersmith, raised $50m for its debut fund, focused on marketplaces that digitize legacy industries. axios.link/4aeKeue

• AE Industrial Partners promoted Jon Lusczakoski to partner, Matthew Friendly to general counsel and chief compliance officer Tess Sprechman to managing director and IR head, Megan LeFevre to HR head, and Alyssa Goessler, Adrian Lee, Tucker Long, and Dave Paolantonio to vice presidents. aeroequity.com

KKR this morning announced that it will pay $1.4 billion to acquire Arctos Partners, the private equity firm known for its pro sports strategy.

• The deal includes $300m in cash and $900m in KKR stock for Arctos, which also provides flexible capital solutions to other PE investors.
• And, yes, this means that KKR will indirectly own parts of teams like the Golden State Warriors and beloved Boston Red Sox.

KKR shares were down 1.7% at today's open, after announcing the deal and Q4 earnings.