President Trump is increasingly unlikely to get his way on closing the carried interest loophole, based on draft tax bill language from House Republicans. Apparently even the death grip has a few fissures.

• But while the change remains in theoretical play, it's worth gaming out its practical consequences.

Disclaimer: Let's stipulate that the devil would be in the legislative details. For example, could there be exclusions for ultra-long hold periods? Would it be grandfathered in for existing funds?

• What follows is assuming a vanilla switch for all carry from capital gains to ordinary income.

Scenario 1: Fund managers raise their carried interest percentages to compensate for the increased tax.

• It's the most elegant solution from the GP perspective, but is sure to repulse LPs.

Scenario 2: Fund managers reduce or even eliminate hurdle rates.

• Many buyout pros have argued for years that standard 8% hurdles are too high, although that case got harder to make over the past few years of high inflation. This one might come down to what impact tariffs do, or don't, have on CPI.

Scenario 3: GPs seek to significantly increase co-investing from their own balance sheets, some of which could be levered, thus allowing returns still to benefit from capital gains treatment.

• This also could mean more GP stake sales, including in venture capital, so that firms can amass internal capital pools.

Scenario 4: Funds may seek to flip portfolio companies quickly, since there's no longer a tax incentive to hold.

• Doing so could lead to accelerated fundraising cycles, thus increasing GP fee streams.

Scenario 5: GPs suck it up and nothing really changes, except for internal compensation structures.

• Fundraising is very tight right now, and those seeking to upset the apple cart may get left by the side of the road.

The bottom line: The smart money right now is on the status quo (and PE lobbyists) prevailing. But stranger things have happened at the end of big tax bill debates.

Charter Communications (Nasdaq: CHTR) has agreed to acquire Cox Communications from privately held Cox Enterprises for approximately $34.5 billion, with Cox to become Charter's largest shareholder.

Why it's the BFD: The combined company would become America's largest cable TV and broadband provider by subscribers, leapfrogging Comcast.

Zoom in: Cox Enterprises gets a 23% stake in the merged entity, and also receives $4 billion in cash. Charter will assume around $12 billion in debt.

• The combined company is to be called Cox Communications, although the consumer-facing brand would be Spectrum.
• Concurrent to the merger closing, Charter would complete its all-stock buyout of John Malone's Liberty Media, which was announced last fall.

Obligatory: Axios is owned by Cox Enterprises, but isn't directly impacted by this deal.

The bottom line: This could put pressure on Comcast to make an acquisition, or perhaps propose a superior offer for Cox.

⚡ Commonwealth Fusion Systems, a Devens, Mass.-based fusion power startup, raised over $1b in Series B2 funding led by an undisclosed data center developer, per Axios Pro. It previously raised $1.8b from VC firms like Engine Ventures, Tiger Global, Coatue, and DFJ Growth. axios.link/4kk7ZV0

🚑 Pathos AI, a Chicago-based biotech focused on solid tumor drugs, raised $365m in Series D funding from undisclosed backers at a $1.6b valuation. Prior backers include NEA, Revolution, Lightbank, and Builders VC. axios.link/42Y8NJC

• ZeroAvia, a Hollister, Calif., developer of hydrogen-powered airplane engines, is seeking to raise $150m in Series D funding, per Bloomberg. Last year it raised that amount in Series C funding from Scottish National Investment Bank, Airbus, Barclays Sustainable Impact Capital and Saudi Arabia's NEOM Investment Fund. axios.link/3GVwhGF

• Stord, an Atlanta-based cloud supply chain company, raised $80m in Series E funding at a $1.5b valuation, per Fortune. Strike Capital led, joined by aillie Gifford, NewView Capital, G Squared, Georgia Tech Foundation and insiders Kleiner Perkins, Franklin Templeton, Founders Fund, Bond, and Lux Capital. axios.link/3FcvW1Q

🚑 Akido Labs, developer of an AI assistant for doctors, raised $60m in Series B funding. Oak HC/FT led, joined by Greco, SNR, YC, Future Communities Capital, Jeff Dean, and the Comprehensive Blood & Cancer Center. axios.link/3GYOKSL

🚑 Alpheus Medical, a Chanhassen, Minn.-based developer of sonodynamic therapy for treating solid body cancers, raised $52m in Series B funding. HealthQuest Capital and Samsara BioCapital co-led, joined by OrbiMed, Action Potential VC, BrightEdge, the Brain Tumor Investment Fund, and Sontag Innovation Fund. alpheusmedical.com

🚑 Sprinter Health, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based provider of at-home health services, raised $55m in Series B funding. General Catalyst led, joined by a16z, UC Regents, GV, and Accel. axios.link/4j5zIb9

• Arkestro, an SF-based enterprise procurement platform, raised $36m co-led by Altira Group and Aramco Ventures, with participation from insiders NEA, KDT and Activant. axios.link/4kn0rRI

• Cognichip, an SF-based startup using genAI to develop new chips, raised $33m in seed funding led by Lux Capital and Mayfield, with participation from FPV and Candou Ventures. axios.link/43vmHmx

🌎 Solestial, a Tempe, Ariz.-based space solar business, raised $17m in Series A funding round led by AE Ventures, with participation from Crosscut Ventures, Zeon Ventures, and Mitsubishi Electric. axios.link/4j0CLkR

• Doji, a clothing try-on app, raised $14m in seed funding. Thrive Capital led, joined by Seven Seven Six Ventures. axios.link/44Ykly3

• Tern, a back-office platform for travel agencies, raises $13m in Series A funding. Viewpoint Ventures led, joined by insider Upfront Ventures. tern.travel

• InfinitForm, an SF-based manufacturing design software company, raised $12.7m in seed funding led by UP.Partners and is raising $25m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. axios.link/3GYmrUs

🌎 OroraTech, a German developer of satellite-based wildfire detection solutions, raised €12m in Series B extension funding. BNP Paribas led, joined by Rabo Ventures, and insiders Bayern Kapital, Edaphon, and the European Circular Bioeconomy Fund. axios.link/43xSGTa

• Adyton, an operating system for defense, raised $11m. Venrock led, joined by Khosla Ventures, Liquid 2 Ventures, Alumni Ventures, Initialized Capital, Kindred Ventures, and Leblon Capital. axios.link/44HICZ2

• Prediction Guard, a Lafayette, Ind.-based data privacy platform for AI, raised $3.7m in seed funding. Sovereign's Capital led, joined by Blu Ventures, Noblis Ventures, WaterStone Impact Fund, Ringbolt Capital, and M25 Ventures. predictionguard.com

• Studio 42, a Cyprus-based mobile gaming studio, raised $3.6m in seed funding from Play Ventures, GEM Capital, and Arcadia Gaming Partners. axios.link/3FdxMzo

• Pronto, a platform for booking laundry and other domestic services, raised $2m in seed funding led by Bain Capital Ventures. axios.link/430PrDN

• Five Point Infrastructure committed up to $1b to PowerBridge, a developer of data centers in the Permian Basin. axios.link/4k09t7m

• MediaMint, backed by Everstone Capital and Recognize Partners, acquired DataBeat, an Indian data engineering and analytics firm. mediamint.com

• General Atlantic invested in British IoT company Wireless Logic at a £3.5b valuation. Montagu remains majority shareholder. axios.link/4j6D6m7

🚑 Primary Health Properties (LSE: PHP) made a sweetened £1.68b cash-and-stock offer to buy Assura (LSE: AGRP), a British medical properties REIT that already agreed to a £1.61b bid from KKR and Stonepeak Partners. axios.link/3GRFiAG

• The Sterling Group acquired and merged Pavement Preservation Group (Arizona) and Vance Brothers (Kansas City). axios.link/4moUBRC

• Columbus Circle Capital I, a blank check backed by Cohen & Co., raised $220m in an upsized IPO. axios.link/44GziEA

• eToro (Nasdaq: ETOR), the no-fee trading app that went public this week, tells Axios Pro that it could explore a dual listing on other exchanges like London or Abu Dhabi. axios.link/4klzT39

• Green Tea Group, a Chinese casual dining chain backed by Partners Group, raised around US$155m in its Hong Kong IPO. axios.link/3F6EZBq

• Hesai (Nasdaq: HSAI), a Chinese maker of auto lidar sensors, filed confidentially for a Hong Kong listing, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3F9KQGc

• Wen Acquisition, a fintech SPAC led by Julian Sevillano (ex-McKinsey), raised $261m in its IPO. axios.link/4lWjl3e

⚡ Lotus Infrastructure Partners agreed to sell seven natural gas generation facilities to Vistra (NYSE: VST) for $1.9b. axios.link/4kpJ5ni

🚑 Lushi, a New York-based fertility and wellness tech startup that raised $5m in seed funding led by Capital V, is in talks to be acquired by a Dubai-based family office, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4mjQ6aW

• Thoma Bravo sold its remaining 7.4% stake in Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NDAQ) for around $3.4b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/45iJnYu

• Acorns, an Irvine, Calif.-based savings and investment app valued by VCs at $1.8b, acquired EarlyBird, an investment gifting app for families. axios.link/3YOFjvj

🏈 The San Francisco 49ers are selling a 6% stake at an $8.5b valuation, which would be an all-time record for a pro sports franchise, per Bloomberg. The buyers are venture capitalists Vinod Khosla (Khosla Ventures), Byron Deeter (Bessemer Venture Partners), and Will Griffith (Iconiq). axios.link/3YNwXUD

⚡ Strathcona Resources (TSX: SCR) is launching a C$6b takeover bid for Canadian oil sands company MEG Energy (TSX: MEG). axios.link/43zp0VO

• Blue Owl Capital raised $7b for its third digital infrastructure fund. axios.link/459DmgQ

• Firebrand Ventures raised $40m for The Hill Fund, focused on Kansas University-connected startup. axios.link/4jWxwnt

• Metric Capital Partners of London raised €1b for its fifth fund. axios.link/43kCymX

• Redpoint Ventures raised $650m for its 10th flagship fund, per an SEC filing. axios.link/4jQrg0C

• Rockaway Ventures of Prague raised €55m for its second fund. axios.link/4mf1XqN

• Mercedes Bent is leaving Lightspeed to help launch a new VC fund with ex-NEA partner Vanessa Larco, as first reported by Axios Pro. The debut fund target is $100m. axios.link/4djUgeV

• John Mulflur joined Coalesce Capital as a managing director. He previously was with Permira. axios.link/459yDvC