Anthropic officially started its IPO clock yesterday, filing a confidential registration statement with the SEC.

• It could be one of three American companies to go public this year at a valuation of more than $1 trillion, something that has never before happened even once on a U.S. exchange.

Five storylines to watch:

1. Clubhouse leader: Anthropic has pole position in the AI "race," ahead of OpenAI and xAI owner SpaceX, thanks largely to its early focus on enterprise customers.

• The lead could be fleeting, particularly with Google announcing plans to raise $80 billion to bolster its own AI buildout.
• It's unlikely to be a winner-take-all market, as most institutional investors will effectively index Big AI's circular economy, but momentum matters at the margins.

2. Corporate cutback: Some companies already are having second-thoughts about their AI spend, and are investigating cheaper models or more deliberate choices around which tokens to use for which tasks.

• This is where Anthropic's enterprise focus could become a double-edged sword.

3. Market timing: Yesterday's confidential filing means that Anthropic could go public in mid-August — if it were to follow the SpaceX model.

• August is usually a dead zone for IPOs, as lots of bankers and investors are on summer holidays, but Anthropic is one of the few companies that can go public in any market at any time.
• That said, don't pay too much attention to Anthropic getting out before OpenAI (assuming it does so). Wall Street already knows both of these stories very well, and OpenAI is likely to have flipped its S-1 public by the time that Anthropic prices — allowing investors to make their own comparative judgments.
• Both companies may benefit in a post-public SpaceX world, because investors will already have seen new index inclusion rules in action.

4. PBC play: Anthropic is a public benefit corporation, which means it's required to balance shareholder interests with "responsible development and maintenance of advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity."

• This is a bigger deal than OpenAI's nonprofit foundation or Google's mantra of "Don't be evil," and could cause some investors to discount the stock. Particularly if the PBC status returns to the forefront, as it arguably did during Anthropic's recent dustup with the Pentagon (which remains unresolved).

5. D.C. doings: President Trump still hasn't issued his executive order on AI, which could require companies like Anthropic to share new models with government regulators before release.

• Democrats, meanwhile, have an ear to growing populist discontent with AI consequences, and could retake Congress just months after Anthropic goes public.
• Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) yesterday proposed the creation of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund that would receive half the share capital of Big AI companies, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) proposed an excise tax on data centers.

Abivax (Nasdaq: ABVX) shares plunged more than 30% at today's open, after releasing troubling clinical data on its lead drug candidate.

Why it's the BFD: The Paris-based drugmaker has been viewed as a near-term takeover target for Big Pharma.

Catch up quick: Abivax, which is dual-listed in Paris, is working on a treatment for bowel disease ulcerative colitis.

• Per CNBC: "The medicine met its endpoints of demonstrating clinically meaningful efficacy and a placebo-adjusted remission rate of about 40% for both doses tested, but also showed that there were cancer cases among patients taking the higher dose."

The bottom line: Some suitors might view this red flag as a buying opportunity, but the likeliest scenario is that everyone waits for a fuller data release in October.

🚀 Impulse Space, a developer of highly-maneuverable spacecraft, raised $500m in Series D funding. 137 Ventures and Banner VC led, joined by Founders Fund, Lux Capital, and Linse Capital. axios.link/4vmkfKn

• DriveNets, an Israeli networking software startup, raised $410m round at a $8.5b valuation. Bessemer Venture Partners and Atreides Management led, joined by Pitango, D1 Capital Partners, AMD, and Red Dot Capital Partners. axios.link/4ubaVrN

• Mach Industries, an Austin, Texas-based aerospace defense-tech startup, raised $300m in Series C funding at a $1.8b valuation. Infinite Capital and Ribbit Capital led, joined by insiders Bedrock Capital, Sequoia Capital, and Khosla Ventures. axios.link/3RVwfUD

⚡️Spiro, an African electric mobility provider, raised $215m from investors like Impact Fund Denmark and Equitane. axios.link/4vhxdsM

• ZutaCore, a Foster City, Calif.-based liquid cooling startup, raised $100m in Series C funding from Mitsubishi Electric, Carrier Ventures, and Samsung Electronics. zutacore.com

🚑 Contraline, a Charlottesville, Va.-based developer of male contraceptives, raised $92.5m in Series B funding, per Axios Pro. BVF Partners and RA Capital Management led, joined by GV, Lumira Ventures, and Invus. axios.link/49yFUqg

• Tilt, a live auction app, raised $26m from Vinted Ventures and insiders TQ Ventures, Balderton Capital, Earlybird, and Seedcamp. axios.link/4uH6uG7

🚑 Subtle Medical, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based provider of medical imaging software, raised $44m. Morgan Stanley Expansion Capital led, joined by Shinhan Venture Investment, Fusion Fund, EnvisionX, BRV, and Samsung Ventures. axios.link/3Qchpsq

🚑 Oak Hill Bio, a Cambridge, Mass.-based developer of rare disease drugs, raised $32.5m in Series A funding from Balyasny Asset Management, venBio, Janus Henderson Investors, and KCap Biotechnology Fund. axios.link/4aqijZ9

🚑 IMU Biosciences, a British precision medicine startup, raised £28.5m in Series A extension funding. IQ Capital and Molten Ventures led, joined by The British Business Bank and Meltwind. axios.link/3PPn8nZ

• Board, a face-to-face game console led by Mirror founder Brynn Putnam, raised $20m. USV led, joined by Adjacent, BoxGroup, Coalition Operators, First Round Capital, Lerer Hippeau, IRL Ventures; Metrodora Ventures, Patron, SV Angel, and Twelve Below. board.fun

• Invisix, a semiconductor metrology spinout from ASML, raised €20m in seed seed funding from Hitachi Ventures, Transition Ventures, imec.xpand, and Doosan Investment Co. axios.link/4x2P1JX

• Ryl Tea, an iced tea brand, raised $20m in Series C funding led by Purchase Capital. axios.link/4uE8peC

🚑 Novellia, an NYC-based real-world pharma data company, raised $18m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Spark Capital led, joined by Khosla Ventures, Acrew Capital, Bling Capital, and TMV. axios.link/4o5uArR

🚑 Ilant Health, an Albany, N.Y.-based obesity and cardiometabolic care startup, raised $15m in Series A funding. Cornucopian Capital led, joined by naturalX, Peakbridge, Semcap AI, Evidenced, Operator Partners, Celtic, LifeX, and AlphaLab. axios.link/4uFsUaM

• ZeroDrift, an AI compliance startup, raised $10m in seed funding from a16z, Reign Ventures, PitchDrive Ventures, and U&I Ventures. axios.link/4dK4hUp

• Bayshore, a German compliance automation platform, raised $8m in seed funding. Earlybird Venture Capital led, joined by Lucid Capital, Booom, and Heliad. axios.link/3PPkFKf

• Blulabs, a Miami-based global supply chain platform, raised $7m at a $160m pre-money valuation led by Lodestone Capital. axios.link/4ueBMmN

• SpeedLabs, an NYC-based live sports prediction market, raised $6.5m in seed funding. Parlay Capital led, joined by Bullpen Capital, TA Ventures, and EdgeEquity. axios.link/4efEFPj

• Kosmos, a Chicago-based operational intelligence platform for engineers, raised $5m in seed funding led by Norwest.kosmoslabs.ai

• Oplane, a Swedish cybersecurity startup, raised €4.5m in seed funding led by Seed Capital. axios.link/3Qi0MLU

🌎 Borro, a Belgian digital deposit system for reusable cups, raised €1.3m from Seeder Fund, Imec.istart, Bluesnipe, PMV, and Butterfly & Elephant. axios.link/4efW4HE

• SewerAI, a Walnut Creek, Calif.-based AI platform for sewer and underground infrastructure inspections, raised funding led by JMI Equity, with participation from insiders Innovius Capital, Epic Ventures, and Bentley Systems. haxios.link/4uNMd1R

• ACE Solutions, a Plexus Capital portfolio company, acquired Leahy-Wolf Co., a Highland, Ind.-based lubricants distributor. axios.link/43DkXXM

• CIVC Partners invested in Nationwide Legal, an LA-based provider of litigation support services to law firms. nationwidelegal.com

• CVC, Cinven, and PAI Partners each made initial bids for IRCA, an Italian dessert ingredients maker that could fetch €2.5b-€3b, per Reuters. axios.link/3RVdZL5

• Decks & Docks, a CCMP Growth portfolio company, acquired J&W Lumber, a provider of outdoor building materials in Southern California. axios.link/4vjZ0c3

• GPF Partners acquired Beedigital, a Spanish SME digitization and digital marketing firm, from Metric Capital Partners and Evolvere Capital for around €100m. axios.link/4uNuY0D

• J.C. Flowers & Co. acquired Monte Paschi Banque, a French lending subsidiary of Italy's Monte dei Paschi di Siena. axios.link/4ugfwcd

⚡️ Maxwell Power, a San Diego-based solar and storage financing firm, secured a $750m commitment from Fairtide Partners. axios.link/4dVNnRo

• New Mountain Capital agreed to buy Asset Living, a Houston-based residential property management firm, for over $2b from Roark Capital, per Reuters. axios.link/4x2Tvjz

• Oakley Capital invested in Skilled Education Group, a high ed platform that concurrently acquired Austria's Sigmund Freud University. axios.link/49uD7ys

• Reichmann Segal Capital Partners acquired Green Circuits, a San Jose, Calif.-based provider of electronics manufacturing services. axios.link/4dRQ9qV

• Shamrock Capital led a growth investment to merge card collectables media and retail companies CardsHQ and Sports Card Investor. EnOne Ventures also participated. axios.link/4vkPK7x

• Thoma Bravo completed its $5b acquisition of Dallas-based logistics firm WWEX Group, the parent company of Worldwide Express, and merged it with existing portfolio company Auctane (fka Stamps.com). Prior WWEX backers rolling over some of their equity are: CVC Capital, Partners, Providence Equity Partners, PSG, and Ridgemont Equity Partners. BFD flashback

• Forbright, a Chevy Chase, Md.-based commercial lender, set IPO terms to 7.9m shares at $18-$20. It would have a $944m market cap, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (FRBT). axios.link/4fTWbKb

• Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) agreed to acquire Contentful, a composable content platform for brands. Contentful had raised, including at a $3b+ valuation in 2021 from firms like Tiger Global, Base10, and Tidemark. axios.link/3RLl4xM

• 26North Reinsurance agreed to acquire the parent company of Jacksonville, Fla.-based Independent Life Insurance Co. axios.link/4dXA82P

• Arxis (Nasdaq: ARXS), backed by Arcline, paid a combined $890m to acquire Omnetics, a Minneapolis-based maker of connectors and interconnect assemblies, and MagCanica, a maker of non-contact, high-precision torque sensors. axios.link/4vsqFYC

• Betterworks, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based HR software startup that's raised around $150m in VC funding, acquired Rypple, a Palo Alto-based leadership platform for managers. axios.link/4uMQzWY

• General Mills (NYSE: GIS) agreed to sell its Häagen-Dazs shops in mainland China to a consortium that includes Chinese tea brand Ningji. axios.link/4ubuGPV

• Legora, a legal-tech valued at $5.6b by VCs, acquired agentic commercial real estate platform Cadastral, per Axios Pro. axios.link/3RWlmC0

• Redpoint Advisors acquired VoxCroft Analytics, a provider of population-centric intelligence and risk advisory services, from South Africa's VoxCroft. axios.link/4dK8zeD

• Blackstone raised $13.1b for its third Asia buyout fund. axios.link/4g0C5xU

🌎 DCVC is raising up to $500m for its second energy and climate fund, per an SEC filing.

• Eurazeo raised €3.9b for its seventh direct lending fund. axios.link/3Sexgas

• Schematic Ventures, an SF-based early-stage firm, is raising up to $60m for its third fund, per an SEC filing.

• U&I Ventures, an enterprise infastructure firm led by Kim Moore, secured over $18m of a $25m-targeted debut fund, per an SEC filing.

• Version One Ventures of Canada raised US$78m for its third flagship fund and US$30m for its third opportunities fund. axios.link/4dInl5v

• Wingman Growth Partners, led by Jeff Machlin (ex-Brighton Park Capital), raised $215m for its debut fund. axios.link/4u6L97R

• Daniel Clayton joined Adams Street Partners as a principal. He previously was with Saphire Partners. axios.link/4fVfbIl

• Chris Huetsch joined Angeles Equity Partners as a principal. He previously was with Arsenal Capital Partners. axios.link/4fE8WZB

• Mike Hoffmann joined Permira as a tech-focused partner in Menlo Park, Calif. He previously was with Thoma Bravo. axios.link/4vilqub

⚡️Anthony Oni joined Georgia Power as VP of corporate affairs. He previously was a managing partner at Energy Impact Partners. axios.link/4u9WsfA

Princeton University's endowment yesterday abandoned its 2022 pledge to divest from publicly traded oil and gas companies, although it will comply with a trustee mandate to divest from thermal coal and tar sands companies.

Princo president Vincent Tuohey writes that the endowment will continue working toward a "net-zero endowment by 2046," but doesn't believe such divestitures are necessary to achieve that goal.