It's no secret that AI has become a splitting headache for private equity, or at least for funds that bought big into enterprise software.

• But this isn't just a backward-looking problem, which can be temporarily stemmed by Q1 equity markdowns and maturing debt renegotiations.
• Almost every industry big I spoke with this week said that AI has created massive modeling challenges for new deals, almost regardless of sector.

Private equity is a long-term asset class, typically holding portfolio companies for a minimum of three or four years.

• For context, it's been only three-and-a-half years since ChatGPT was first released.
• Subsequent AI advancements — including the introductions of Claude, Gemini, etc. — have upended industries.
• Any financial sponsor (or lender) who claims even a high degree of confidence in the environment three-and-a-half years from now is either lying or self-deluded. Even if it partners with a major frontier lab.

"Modeling exit multiples has always involved a lot of guesswork, but now it feels like throwing at a dartboard blindfolded," said one private equity veteran.

• The known unknowns are more pronounced, even in industries that appear AI-resistant or more likely to benefit from the tech than be disintermediated by it.

Private equity has plenty of dry powder, with limited partners continuing to invest despite the DPI drought. So new investments will obviously be made.

• Even if the industry's long-term nature, always one of its greatest strengths, is becoming a material weakness.

Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) and Corning (NYSE: GLW) today announced a "multiyear commercial and technology partnership" that will include the construction of three advanced manufacturing facilities in North Carolina and Texas.

Why it's the BFD: This signals that Nvidia is moving deeper into co-packaged optics — i.e., shifting from copper to glass — which could significantly reduce AI's energy needs.

Zoom in: Nvidia received warrants to purchase up to 15 million shares of Corning stock, for an aggregate purchase price of $500 million.

The bottom line: "Corning is well known for making all the display glass for Apple's iPhone, but optical communications remains its largest and fastest-growing business." — Katie Tarasov, CNBC

🚀 Astranis, an SF-based commercial satellite company, raised $300m in Series E funding. Snowpoint Ventures and Franklin Templeton led, joined by a16z, BlackRock, Ballie Gifford, Fidelity, BAM Elevate, Nimble Partners, and Friends & Family Capital. axios.link/4uB06A2

🚀 Iceye, a Finnish satellite startup, is in talks to raise €250m at a €5b valuation, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4naK79h

🚑 CellCentric, a U.K. biotech focused on multiple myeloma, raised $220m in Series D funding. Venrock led, joined by Fidelity, Sofinnova Partners, HBM Healthcare, RA Capital Management, Forbion, Pfizer, Avego Bioscience Capital, and the American Cancer Society. axios.link/4uqXCE4

• Blitzy, a Cambridge, Mass.-based autonomous software development firm, raised $200m at a $1.4b valuation. Northzone led, joined by PSG, Battery Ventures, Jump Capital, NFX, Link Ventures, Flybridge, Liberty Mutual Strategic Ventures, Erie Strategic Ventures, and BAL Ventures. axios.link/42kKmoz

• QuantWare, a Dutch quantum processor startup, raised €152m in Series B funding from Intel Capital, In-Q-Tel, ETF Partners and insiders Forward.one, Invest-NL Deep Tech Fund, InnovationQuarter Capital, Ground State Ventures, and Graduate Ventures. axios.link/4uBex77

• Enter, a Brazilian legal tech startup, raised $100m at a $1.2b valuation. Founders Fund led, joined by Sequoia Capital and Ribbit Capital. axios.link/3QQdS2Z

🚑 Cytospire Therapeutics, a U.K. developer of immune cell engagers, raised £61m in Series A funding. 4BIO Capital led, joined by Servier Ventures, British Business Bank, Sound Bioventures, Criteria Bio Ventures, Abingworth, LifeArc Ventures. Modi Ventures, Medical Incubator Japan, and Pathway Bioventures. axios.link/49gDUTj

⚡️ Nyobolt, a U.K. developer of fast-charging batteries, raised $60m in Series C funding at a $1b valuation. Symbotic led, joined by Latitude, IQ Capital, Scania Invest, and CBMM. axios.link/42hyioa

• Zyg, an Israeli e-commerce scaling platform, raised $60m at a $500m valuation. Accel led, joined by Bessemer Venture Partners and Lightspeed. axios.link/3QQ98uo

• XBOW, an autonomous offensive security startup, raised $35m in Series C funding from Accenture, NVentures, Liberty Global, Samsung, and SentinelOne. xbow.com

• CopilotKit, a Seattle-based app-native agent deployment platform, raised $27m in Series A funding from Glilot Capital, NFX, and SignalFire. axios.link/49vtvTP

⚡️ Lithosquare, a French provider of metals discovery software, raised $25m in seed funding. World Fund and Kindred Capital led, joined by Daphni, Omnes Capital, and Ovni Capital. axios.link/4tVr99b

• District, a commerce platform for independent sellers, raised $14.7m in seed funding. A16z and Kindred Ventures led, joined by Greylock, SV Angel, and 20VC. axios.link/4d2DH8R

• Illoca, an AI design engine for architects, raised $13m in seed funding led by Bessemer Venture Partners, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4d5EynX

🌎 Trillium Renewable Chemicals, a Knoxville, Tenn.-based maker of bio-based chemicals, raised $13m in Series B funding. HS Hyosung Advanced Materials led, joined by Capricorn Partners. axios.link/42gonPC

• Altara, an SF-based scientific intelligence startup, raised $7m in seed funding. Greylock led, joined by Neo, BoxGroup, Liquid 2 Ventures, and Jeff Dean. axios.link/4neuPjK

• Davis, a Paris-based real estate design startup, raised $5.5m in pre-seed funding. Heartcore Capital and Balderton Capital led, joined by Yellow, Evantic and Entrepreneurs First. meetdavis.com

• Corvera, a London-based agentic supply chain platform for CPG brands, raised $4.2m in seed funding. 6 Degrees Capital led, joined by 20VC, Rebel Fund, Duke Capital Partners, and Multimodal Ventures. axios.link/4doqszc

🚑 XCaliber Health, an Andover, Mass.-based agentic OS for health care, raised $6.5m in seed funding. ManchesterStory led, joined by Benhamou Global Ventures and Arka Venture Labs. axios.link/3R2QZcD

🚑 MSICS Pharma, an Israeli psilocybin biotech, raised $3.6m from Fusion VC, GlenRock, Gooday Investments, and Shani Investments. axios.link/3P6Xafg

🌎 Sugarox, a U.K. maker of crop biostimulants, raised £2.5m from The Mosaic Company. axios.link/4uzV4DU

• Jurisphere, an Indian legal AI startup, raised $2.2m from InfoEdge Ventures, Flourish Ventures, Antler, and 8i Ventures. axios.link/4dqSj1K

🌎 Pacific Hybreed, a Honolulu-based aquaculture biotech, raised $1m from Hawai'i Angels and Blue Startups. axios.link/4nessxx

• Alcami, a CDMO backed by GHO Capital, Vistria, and Ampersand Capital Partners, completed its acquisition of Dutch contract packager Tjoapack from Ampersand. axios.link/4wcztTm

🚑 Ares Management invested in Linimed Gruppe, a German provider of community intensive care services. axios.link/4d64Hmj

• Boyne Capital invested in H&B Facility Services, a Lake Hiawatha, N.J.-based commercial cleaning and facility services company. axios.link/3OHXGQQ

⚡️Cerberus agreed to invest in S+S Industries, a Houston-based maker of power equipment for data centers. axios.link/4tSDpqR

🚑 CQ Medical, a Blue Wolf Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired Decimal, a Sanford, Fla.-based maker of beam shaping devices for cancer treatment. axios.link/4wi9BWu

🚑 Healthcare Linen Services Group, a portfolio company of The Sterling Group, acquired Texas Textile Services, a Houston-based provider of health-care linens and laundry services. axios.link/4drGfNG

• Hidden River invested in NEC, a Houston-based manufacturer of PVC-coated electrical conduit and fittings. axios.link/42e2ZdV

• Infoblox, a portfolio company of Ardian, Vista Equity Partners and Warburg Pincus, acquired Axur, a Miami-based network software management company. axios.link/4wdCjHU

🚑 JLL Partners invested in CAI, an Indianapolis-based professional services firm for life sciences. axios.link/49vtQpz

• Leap Partners, a portfolio company of Concentric Equity Partners, acquired Odessa, Fla.-based HVAC firm Air Hawk Heating & Cooling. axios.link/3R5DQ2u

• Miller Environmental Group, a portfolio company of Coalesce Capital, acquired Central Ohio Oil, a Columbus, Ohio-based provider of non-hazardous waste treatment services. axios.link/4tTbV4v

⚡️ Platinum Equity acquired Infratech, a Gardena, Calif.-based infrared electric heating company. axios.link/4nhg5AQ

• Virginia Green, a portfolio company of Golden Gate Capital, acquired Turf Solutions, a Harbeson, Del.-based residential lawn care company. axios.link/4uwDccR

• Vernal Capital Acquisition, an APAC-focused SPAC, raised $100m in its IPO. axios.link/4cTEubX

• Ametek (NYSE: AME) agreed to buy a portfolio of instrumentation businesses from Indicor, a portfolio company of Clayton Dubilier & Rice, for around $5b in cash. axios.link/4wk8nKj

🚑 Bayer agreed to acquire Perfuse Therapeutics, a South SF-based developer of a glaucoma treatment, for up to $2.45b (including $300m upfront). Perfuse had raised over $11m from firms like Hatteras Venture Partners, Access Biotechnology, Wu Capital, and OrbiMed. axios.link/4uBgaBL

🚑 Elsevier acquired Mytonomy, a Bethesda, Md.-based patient engagement group whose backers included Level Equity. axios.link/49eiIxg

• Lupa Systems, controlled by James Murdoch, is in talks to pay at least $300m to buy New York magazine and a podcast network from VC-backed Vox Media, per CNN. axios.link/3QIDI9f

• MoonPay acquired DFlow, a Chicago-based Solana trading infrastructure platform, for $100m in stock. DFlow had raised $7.5m from Framework Ventures, Circle Ventures, Coinbase Ventures. axios.link/3R6q3st

• Salt Creek Capital told IT Assist, a Newton, Pa.-based TeamLogic IT franchisee, to TeamLogic. axios.link/3QPdou1

• SAP (NYSE: SAP) agreed to acquire Prior Labs, a German developer of foundation models for spreadsheets and databases. SAP says it will invest €1b over the next four years into Prior, which had raised €9m from Balderton Capital, XTX Ventures, Hector Foundation, Atlantic Labs, and Galion.exe. axios.link/42lVqSm

• Sentinel Capital Partners agreed to sell Autronica Fire & Security, a Norwegian provider of fire and gas detection systems, to MSA Safety (NYSE: MSA) for around $555m. axios.link/3OKQnb5

• Stack Infrastructure, a data center group owned by Blue Owl Capital, is weighing a sale of its Asia operations that could fetch more than $30b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3QJbGdJ

• Atlas Arteria (ASX: ALX), an Australian toll road operator, rejected a A$7.4b takeover bid from its largest shareholder, IFM Investors. axios.link/4tnnFLB

• AKCG – Public Relations Counselors of Philadelphia acquired Cleveland-based Hennes Communications. axios.link/4tg5Rlu

⚡️ Colonial Oil Industries acquired Atkinson Oil, a Sandersville, Ga.-based distributor of fuel and lubricants. axios.link/4whLqaA

⚡️EDP Renovaveis may sell its U.S. distributed generation business, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4n8kd5S

• Mutares sold Peugeot Motocycles to company management. axios.link/42dvloB

• Twin Bridge Capital Partners raised $855m for its sixth lower middle market fund. axios.link/48DdrPK

• Rob Albritton is joining Enlightenment Capital as a managing director. He previously was with Tyto Athene. axios.link/3Pj9ol3

• AnaCap promoted Alberto Sainaghi to partner. axios.link/3QN7mdr

🚑 Adam Grossman joined Amulet Capital Partners as a partner. He previously was with Deerfield Management. axios.link/4tk1NAO

• Jessi Marshall is joining Weatherford Capital as a partner and COO. She previously was with Vista Equity Partners. axios.link/4utv1xZ

• Jonathan Hamilton is joining SQ Capital as a managing director. He previously was with Blackstone. axios.link/42kLhFx

Sacha Mann joined Silverarc Capital as a partner of private capital. She previously was with Takeda Ventures. axios.link/4uxhGVn

⚡️Ken Sanocki joined Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati as a partner focused on energy infrastructure financing. He previously was with Sunrun. axios.link/49tQy1g