Private equity entered 2025 with high hopes for a deals boom, to be driven by decreased regulation and interest rate cuts.

• That second part is increasingly uncertain, which perhaps helps explain why U.S. private equity activity is 53% lower than at this time last year.

State of play: The Fed typically weighs both inflation and labor market conditions when deciding rate changes. Right now it's in a holding pattern.

• Inflation has heated back up, even before tariffs go into effect, and the typical monetary response is to increase rates or keep them static.
• Hiring was strong in January, which also puts upward pressure on long-term rates.

Zoom in: The big question right now is if the labor market is actually weaker than it appears, which could be a counterintuitive silver lining for private equity if it prompts the Fed to cut.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes it is, arguing yesterday that America's private sector is actually in a recession. He added that the White House's goal is to "re-privatize" the economy, which again should be welcome news for buyout barons.

Reality check: The trouble is that Bessent is using very fuzzy math. He told Fox Business Channel on Sunday that "70, 85% of the jobs created by the Biden administration were government jobs, government-adjacent."

• In fact, only 11.1% of the jobs created under Biden were government jobs, and the vast majority of those were in local government. If you add in private education and health — the two "adjacent" sectors Bessent cites — you still only get to 33.4%.
• In fact, the percentages aren't all that different than during President Trump's first term (minus 2020, when the U.S. economy lost jobs). For more data, check out Final Numbers below.
• The Treasury Department didn't respond to a request for comment.

The bottom line: Private equity's rocket launch is being delayed by stormclouds.

OrganOx, a British developer of technologies to maintain organs for transplant, raised $142m in primary and secondary funding led by HealthQuest Capital.

Why it's the BFD: Time is the enemy of organ transplants, and OrganOx says that its solution — which has approval in the U.S. and Europe — can preserve donor livers for up to 24 hours.

• That's around double the preservation time of traditional cold storage.

Other investors include BGF, Lauxera Capital Partners, Sofina, Soleus Capital, and Avidity Partners.

The bottom line: The company says its platform has been used in over 5,000 liver transplants, with plans to investigate usage for kidneys.

🚑 Eikon Therapeutics, a Hayward, Calif.-based live-cell microscopy startup, raised $351m in Series D funding from insiders like Lux Capital, The Column Group, Foresite Capital, Soros Capital, and General Catalyst. axios.link/4kdFucy

• Raise, a crypto platform for gift cards, raised $63m. Haun Ventures led, and was joined by Paper Ventures, Selini Capital, and GSR Ventures. axios.link/41dxLTb

• Nomagic, a Polish developer of robot arms, raised $44m in Series B funding. EBRD led, and was joined by Khosla Ventures and Almaz Capital. axios.link/4ianIoA

• Sparta Commodities, a Swiss provider of intelligence for commodities traders, raised $42m in Series B funding. One Peak led, and was joined by insiders Singular and FirstMark. axios.link/4gYXrcb

• Vivici, a Dutch producer of dairy proteins producer via fermentation, raised €32.5m in Series A funding. APG and Invest-NL co-led, and were joined by InnovationQuarter and insiders DSM-Firmenich, and Fonterra. axios.link/3D9Nr1M

🚑 Camber, a medical claims automation startup, raised $30m in Series B funding. per Axios Pro. A16z led, and was joined by K Ventures and YC. axios.link/41j6gHK

• Bridgetown Research, a AI due diligence AI startup, raised $19m in Series A funding co-led by Accel and Lightspeed. axios.link/43bGhEG

• Gozem, a ride-hailing service in West Africa, raised $15m in Series B equity funding (plus $15m in debt) co-led by SAS Shipping Agencies Services and Al Mada Ventures. axios.link/3QEASyo

• Lovable, a Swedish developer of an "AI fullstack engineer," raised $15m in pre-Series A funding led by Creandum. axios.link/3ESK3J8

🌎 CarbonQuest, a developer of distributed carbon capture systems for buildings, raised $20m led by Riverbend Energy Group, per Axios Pro. axios.link/3QA37yl

• Subscript, a revenue management startup, raised $15m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Pelion led, and was joined by First Round Capital, Kapor Capital, Forum Ventures, and Fresco Capital. axios.link/41dzI1X

• Venn, a Canadian business banking and expense manage startup, raised US$15 million in Series A funding led by Left Lane Capital, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4hSshnP

• Flanks, a Spanish provider of insights to European wealth managers, raised raised €14m, per Axios Pro. Motive Ventures led, and was joined by Battery Ventures, Earlybird, JME Ventures, and 4Founders Capital. axios.link/4kdc6mP

• Goose, an operating system for pet-care providers, raised $13.4m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Backers include B Capital, First Round Capital, The 81 Collection, Imaginary Ventures, and BoxGroup. axios.link/4hYf1yk

🚀 Magdrive, British satellite propulsion startup, raised $10.5m from Redalpine, with contributions from Founders Fund, Balerion, Alumni Ventures, Outsized Ventures, 7percent, and Entrepreneur First. axios.link/4kdkHWC

• Arsenale Bioyards, an Italian precision fermentation startup, raised $10m. Planet A and byFounders co-led, and were joined by CDP Ventures, Acequia Capital, Plug N Play, and Grey Silo Ventures. axios.link/4bjZBSw

🌎 Stax Engineering, a startup capturing ship emissions at berth, raised $10m (plus $60m in debt) co-led by Deutsche Bank and Firstime Credit, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4hVFo7P

• Tolan, an AI companion, raised $10m in seed funding led by Lachy Groom. tolans.com

🚑 Cercare Medical, a Danish provider of perfusion software for stroke and neurodegenerative diseases, raised $7.7m led by West Hill Capital. cercare-medical.com

• Jord Bioscience, a St. Paul, Minn.-based provider of microbes to farmers raised $7m in Series B funding led by Silver Blue. axios.link/4kildmm

🚑 Ignota Labs, a British biotech focused on drug toxicity, raised $6.9m in seed funding. Montage Ventures and AIX Ventures co-led, and were joined by Modi Ventures, Blue Wire Capital, and Gaingels. ignotalabs.ai

🌎 Floodbase, a New York-based flood data and analytics startup, raised $5m led by Ecosystem Integrity Fund, with participation from Pulse Fund. axios.link/4bghtNP

• Adaptive Insurance, a parametric insurance startup, raised $5m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Congruent Ventures led, and was joined by Montauk Climate and Generation Space. axios.link/41hWGow

🌎 Mitico, a Pasadena, Calif., industrial carbon capture startup, raised $4.3m in seed funding. Exergon led, and was joined by Gore Ventures, AP Ventures, Halliburton Labs, SOSV, Freeflow Ventures, SoCal Alliance for Innovation, and Deepbright Ventures. mitico.tech

• Ufraction8, a Scottish startup focused on boosting biomanufacturing efficiency, raised £3.4m led by Foresight Group. axios.link/3XhPNSV

• Byzantine Finance, a French re-staking protocol, raised $3m in pre-seed funding. Node Capital and Blockwall Ventures co-led, and were joined by Lightshift, Masterkey, and Kiln Ventures. axios.link/41GIdEl

• CQR, an Saudi ops tech cybersecurity startup, raised $3m led by Shorooq. cqr.com.sa

⚡ Vidyut, an Indian EV battery-as-a-service startup, raised $2.5m from Flourish Ventures. axios.link/41f1hIk

• Opal, a payments and credit card startup for ad agencies, raised $1.5m in seed funding co-led by Founders Co-op and Exit North Ventures, per Axios Pro. axios.link/43jeAK6

• Amplix, a tech advisory owned by Gemspring Capital, acquired Fort Myers, Fla.-based peer GlobalNet Communications. amplix.com

🚑 AYA Medical Spa, a portfolio company of Eagle Merchant Partners, acquired Tribeca MedSpa, a New York-based operator of medical aesthetic treatments. ayaskincare.com

• B&R Auto, a portfolio company of Highview Capital, acquired Farmington, N.M.-based Highway 64 Truck & Auto Salvage. autowrecking.com

⚡ CDPQ agreed to buy Canadian power company Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX: INE) for around C$10b in cash. axios.link/4bohdww

• Checkmk, a German IT infrastructure monitoring vendor, raised funding from PSG Equity. axios.link/3XGSDRZ

⚡ Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners agreed to buy Morecambe, a 480-mw offshore wind project in Britain from Cobra Group and Flotation Energy. axios.link/43gNO5d

🚑 EXA Capital acquired PrecisionCare, a New York-based provider of electronic health records software. precisioncare.com

• Nordic Capital acquired Anaqua, a Boston-based provider of IP management tech solutions, from Astorg. anaqua.com

🐔 Roark Capital is nearing an agreement to buy restaurant chain Dave's Hot Chicken for around $1b, per the WSJ. axios.link/4iyq9Sr

• Rotunda Capital Partners acquired AirPro Diagnostics, a provider of driver assistance system diagnostics for the auto repair market. airprodiagnostics.com

⚡ Pearl Energy Investments backed the formation of Slant Energy III, an upstream oil and gas E&P focused on the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. slantenergy.com

• Sichuan Hongyi Enterprise Management, a SPAC focused on China and Asia-Pacific, filed for a $100m IPO. axios.link/41eW0Ak

• Zhizi, a Chinese maker of commercial electric trucks, is prepping a Hong Kong IPO that could raise $200m, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4h00yk7

• PAG is weighing options for its majority stake in Nuvama, a listed Indian wealth manager, per Bloomberg. axios.link/41uIjyG

• Axis Bank of India is weighing the sale of its majority stake in shadow-bank unit Axis Finance, which could be valued at $1b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/41yKUHC

• Boeing (NYSE: BA) is seeking to sell Insitu, a maker of small, long-range military drones, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4iakqBK

⚡ BP (LSE: BP) will seek to sell its lubricants business, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3DakGSC

🍈 Cantaloupe (Nasdaq: CTLP), a Malvern, Pa., payments processor with a $755m market cap, is exploring a sale, per Reuters. axios.link/4if6tm2

• CICC is in advanced talks to merge with China Galaxy Securities, in a deal that would form China's third-largest brokerage, per Reuters. axios.link/41eoDxI

• Japan Post Holdings (Tokto: 6178) plans to sell up to a $4b stake in Japan Post Bank (T: 7182), per Reuters. axios.link/41vCwIW

🚑 Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX) agreed to acquire select assets of Spectra Laboratories, a renal lab resting services firm owned by Fresenius Medical Care (NYSE: FMS). axios.link/3XgOrIn

• Segal, a New York-based benefits and HR consultancy, acquired SF-based employee comms firm Intactic. segalco.com

• Vev, a Norwegian no-code design platform, acquired website builder Time Sites from media group TIME. Vev also received an investment from Time owner Marc Benioff. axios.link/3QyP9wI

• Bannaker Partners is raising its third PE fund focused on enterprise software, per an SEC filing. It's currently investing out of a $550m second fund.

• Base10 is raising $450m for its fourth seed and early-stage fund, per an SEC filing.

⚡ Blackstone raised $5.6b for its fourth energy transition fund. axios.link/3EWVRKm

• Brookfield plans to seek at least $7b for its fourth infrastructure debt fund, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3QzHnCF

• HPS Investment Partners is targeting more than $10b for its sixth junior credit fund, per Bloomberg. axios.link/418zXva

• Immad Akhund, CEO of banking tech startup Mercury, is raising $26m for an eponymous VC fund, per an SEC filing. axios.link/4ie4DC9

• McNally Capital of Chicago is raising its third flagship PE fund, per an SEC filing. It's currently investing out of a $155m second fund.

• Perplexity, the AI company valued by VCs at $9b, is raising a $50m seed and pre-seed fund, per CNBC. axios.link/3F7ajPV

• Amy Gleason is the acting administrator of DOGE, according to the White House.

• She most recently was chief product officer at Russell Street Ventures, a Nashville-based VC firm focused on health care. RSV's founder, Brad Smith, was an early DOGE hire, and the RSV website was recently deleted.

Genstar Capital promoted Scott Niehaus and Sid Ramakrishnan to managing directors, and Conor Flemming and Michael Waller to principals. gencap.com

• Ansaf Kareem, a former Lightspeed partner, has launched a VC firm called Latitude Capital, per an SEC filing.

• John Morrison joined Blue Owl Capital as a managing director. He previously led insurance solutions for GCM Grosvenor. axios.link/3EVW2pg

• Norwest promoted Irem Rami, Scott Mitchell, and Chris Scullin to partners. It also promoted Connor Pike and Chris Sondej to principals and Suraj Shah to VP. nvp.com