SpaceX isn't going to break the IPO market, despite some concerns that it may do so.

The fear: SpaceX wants to raise so much money — reportedly up to $80 billion — that it could create a liquidity crunch for other issuers.

• Particularly if investors also are eying allocations for mega-offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI.

The reality: Public equity markets are deep enough to swallow all of it.

By the numbers: 2021 holds the all-time record for U.S. IPO proceeds, with $142.4 billion raised. That represented around 0.4% of total U.S. stock market value at the beginning of that year.

• Let's assume SpaceX gets its $80 billion, which comes on top of nearly $29 billion already raised this year in U.S. IPOs. The total would represent only around 0.015% of total stock market value at the beginning of 2026.
• Now let's assume that both Anthropic and OpenAI match SpaceX's proposed haul. That alone would crush the annual IPO record, but still comes in shy of the 0.4% slice set in 2021.
• Remember, today's U.S. public equities markets are much larger on a dollar basis than they were five years ago.

Wilcard: Secondary sales as lockups expire could stretch the buffer, but not to the point of bursting it.

Zoom out: If you don't trust the math, maybe you'll trust the bankers.

• Six companies just launched IPO roadshows, including two with billion dollar ambitions (Innio and Quantinuum). It's not the sort of thing you do if worried about dry powder.

The bottom line: SpaceX is just weeks away from pricing the largest IPO ever. It's unclear if it will produce IPO tailwinds, but there's no solid basis for believing it will cause headwinds.

Source: Giphy

Arsenal Capital Partners has agreed to acquire a majority stake in Velcro Cos., a Manchester, New Hampshire-based maker fastening products, from the Cripps Foundation (which retains a minority stake).

Why it's the BFD: Velcro was ubiquitous during my 1980s childhood — how else would Trapper Keepers stay shut? — but I never realized there was a singular company behind the iconic brand.

• Until private equity decided to buy it. File this under TIL.

Catch up quick: Velcro Cos. was founded in 1941, named as an amalgam of the French words "velour" and "crochet."

• It had several corporate iterations, including as a public company, but by the late 1970s was struggling.
• A British businessman named C. Humphrey Cripps gradually bought up its stock, and later put Velcro under the umbrella of his philanthropic foundation.

The bottom line: The company says it has around 2,400 global employees and more than 370 patents.

• WeRoad, an Italy-based adventure travel startup, raised $58m in Series C funding led by Airbnb. axios.link/4vxuDzd

• Pace, an NYC-based insurance ops automation startup, raised $46m in Series B funding. Thrive Capital and Sequoia Capital led, joined by Emergence Capital and Pruven Capital. axios.link/4v4SMwG

🚑 Nuclidium, a German radiopharmaceuticals developer, raised around $33m in Series B extension funding from Kurma Growth Opportunities Fund, Angelini Ventures, Aurea, Wellington Partners, Neva SGR, DeepTech & Climate Fonds, Bayern Kapital, Vives Partners, and NRW.Bank. axios.link/4vgL4Qc

• Airis Labs, an Israeli AI video platform for defense, raised $31m in Series B funding, per Axios Pro. PSG Equity led, joined by TLV Partners, Stepstone Group, and Redseed Ventures. axios.link/4fb4LnD

• NavigateAI, an SF-based developer of AI copilots for construction workers, raised $25m. Elad Gil led, joined by Khosla Ventures, Lennar, Fifth Wall, Tishman Speyer, and Helix Electric. axios.link/42XizuO

• Tensormesh, a Foster City, Calif.-based inference optimization startup, raised $20m in seed extension funding from AMD Ventures, CoreWeave, Nvidia's NVentures, Valley Capital Partners, and Laude Ventures. axios.link/4f6NJXT

• Lastwall, a Canadian provider of "quantum-resilient" cybersecurity solutions, raised C$16m led by BDC. axios.link/49nRft8

• CasaPerks Technologies, an Austin, Texas-based real estate rental rewards platform, raised $15.8m in seed funding led by Longevity Equity. axios.link/4vbpdtk

• RevEng.AI, a London-based cybersecurity startup focused on software supply chain verification, raised $15m in Series A funding. NATO Innovation Fund led, joined by Sands Capital, In-Q-Tel, IQ Capital, and Episode One. axios.link/4dIkYOJ

• Stride, a Vietnamese rooftop solar financing platform, raised $15m in Series B funding. Lightrock and TRIREC led, joined by Clime Capital and UOB Venture Management. axios.link/4uxRYAt

• AllO, an operating system for European restaurants, raised $14m in Series A funding. Zigg Capital led, joined by LifeX Ventures, Aperture, Wecken & Cie., 20VC, and Keen Venture Partners. axios.link/4wTyWGo

• Tekst, a Belgian agentic business process automation startup, raised €11.5m in Series A funding led by Elephant. axios.link/42UB1Ej

• Olyzon, an "agentic decisioning layer" for CTV advertising, raised $10m in Series A funding. S4S Ventures led, joined by Eurazeo. axios.link/3RNAHVn

🚑 Protuoso Biosciences, a San Carlos, Calif.-based protein synthetic biology platform, raised $9.5m in seed funding. Taya Ventures and Darwin Ventures led, joined by Seeds and NSG Ventures. axios.link/3Q8ixNH

• Human Archive, a Mountain View, Calif.-based robotics training data startup, raised $8.2m from Wing Venture Capital, NVP Capital, and YC. axios.link/4aa66rk

• Iconic, an AI-enabled M&A advisor for small business, raised $6m. Expa led, joined by Oceans Ventures, Fluent VC Ram Shriram, Tim Ferriss, and AngelList CEO Avlok Kohli. axios.link/432zhJ9

• Canyon Code, a Sunnyvale, Calif.-based maker of enterprise controls for managing multi-agentic apps, raised $5m in pre-seed funding. Cota Capital led, joined by Newbuild Venture Capital and Blackhorn Ventures. axios.link/431l534

• Go Swag, a Scottish corporate gifting startup, raised $5m. Mercia Ventures led, joined by Techstart Ventures. axios.link/4uwfHkv

• Certo, a compliance platform for beauty and consumer goods, raised $4m in seed funding. Daphni led, joined by Entrepreneurs First, Motier Ventures, and Transpose Platform. axios.link/43v6ixL

• Accelerated Wealth Partners, a J.C. Flowers portfolio company, made a minority investment in Brooklyn Fi, an advisory firm for clients with complex equity compensation. axios.link/4dJe5wD

• Bow River Capital invested in SBI, a Dallas-based GTM advisory firm. axios.link/4nOskFf

• I Squared Capital bought 10 data centers from Cogent Fiber for $225m. axios.link/4x9ACMf

• Ivy Technology, a Staple Street Capital portfolio company, acquired ISP Tek Services, a Southlake, Texas-based electronics refurbisher, from Close the Loop (ASX: CLG). axios.link/49kkayj

• Periscope Equity invested in Amusement Connect, a Kansas City-based provider of cashless payment solutions for the amusement and family entertainment industry. axios.link/4fbtdW8

• Poppulo, backed by Vista Equity Partners, acquired Sociabble, a Paris-based employee engagement platform, from backers like Ardian. axios.link/4nQ25y5

• Patron Points, a Woodbury, Minn.-based provider of loyalty and customer engagement tech for convenience stores, raised funding led by Straylight Capital, with Scaleworks participating. axios.link/49ZuUCr

• Rightsline, an El Segundo, Calif.-based provider of rights and royalties management software, raised $500m from Hg. Salem Partners will reinvest and remain a majority investor. axios.link/49qLbQD

⚡ Voltera, an EQT portfolio company, is merging with Revel, an NYC-based EV charging platform that's raised about $160m from GIP, Toyota Ventures, Goodyear Ventures, Shell Ventures, Maniv Mobility, Broadscale Group, Obsidian Ventures, St Baker Energy Innovation Fund, Knighthead Capital Management, and Ibex Investors. EQT will be majority owner of the combined company. axios.link/4nUVNgH

• Wise Equity acquired a majority stake in the parent company of Italian snowboard maker Capita-Union Group. axios.link/4vcNjUB

• Xactus, a Lovell Minnick Partners portfolio company, acquired Mortgage Credit Link, an online order fulfillment hub, from MeridianLink, whose backers include Avery Dennison, Silversmith Capital Partners, and Centerbridge Partners. axios.link/4fgfqO5

• Columbus Circle Capital III, a SPAC formed by Cohen & Co., filed for a $200m IPO. axios.link/4fIvtnQ

• Disciplined Growth Acquisition, a SPAC led by Robert Wotczak (ex-CEO of Prime Executions), raised $150m in its IPO. axios.link/4tTsMUm

• Innio, a German gas engine manufacturer owned by Advent International and ADIA, set IPO terms to 75m shares at $24-$27. It would have a $19.13b market cap, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (INIO). axios.link/4nXuhzg

🚑 Kardigan, a South SF-based cardiovascular drug developer, filed for a $100m IPO. It plans to list on the Nasdaq (KARD) and raised over $550m from firms like Arch Venture Partners (22.5% pre-IPO stake), HRTG (22.5%), Perceptive Advisors (12.7%), Fidelity (6.9%), T. Rowe Price, and Sequoia Heritage. axios.link/49pfU0w

⚡ CVC Capital Partners sold its remaining 11.08% stake in Spanish energy firm Naturgy (Madrid: NTGY) for around €3.07b. axios.link/4e7dTsn

• Global-e Online (Nasdaq: GLBE) agreed to acquire Passport, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based cross-border logistics firm, for $350m. Passport had raised around $53m from TCV, Flexport, FJ Labs, Trust Fund, Duro Ventures, Mango Capital, Resolute Ventures, M13, Seven Pillar Ventures, and TheVentureCity, axios.link/4dJ7IJM

⚡ ProLogium Technology, a Taiwanese maker of solid-state batteries, agreed to go public at a $3.8b value via a merger with Translational Development Acquisition (Nasdaq: TDACW), an energy infrastructure SPAC led by blank-check vet Michael Hoffman. ProLogium has raised over $800m from backers like VinFast, Mercedes-Benz, SB China VC and Primavera Capital Group. axios.link/42l4dm0

• Zscaler (Nasdaq: ZS) agreed to acquire Symmetry Systems, a San Mateo, Calif.-based cybersecurity and identity company, backed by Forgepoint Capital and Prefix Capital. axios.link/3PJ1wtm

• AkzoNobel, a listed Dutch paintmaker, rejected a €12.49b takeover offer from Nippon Paint (Tokyo: 4612) and Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW). Instead, it plans to proceed with its $9.2b all-stock takeover of Philadelphia-based rival Axalta Coating Systems (NYSE: AXTA). axios.link/4tVgtGD

🚑 Blackstone Life Sciences led up to $1.3b in nondilutive funding to Apogee Therapeutics (Nasdaq: APGE). axios.link/3S3ySnm

🎵 Bollore Group (Paris: BOL) is opposing Pershing Square Capital's efforts to buy Universal Music Group (AMS: UMG), in which Bollore owns 18.5% of the equity and nearly 40% of the voting rights. axios.link/4fJGAgb

⚾ Travis Kelce is becoming a minority owner in MLB's Cleveland Guardians. axios.link/4acMnr3

⚡ Newcleo, a French nuclear reactor and fuel developer, agreed to go public at a $2.4b valuation via a merger with a SPAC called NewHold Investment Corp III (Nasdaq: NHICW). Newcleo has raised over $700m frim firms like Danieli & C., Cementir Holding NV, Orion Valves, NextChem, Kairos, Indaco Ventures, Azimut Investments, and the CERN pension fund. axios.link/4fK6C2Y

• Stratasys (Nasdzq: SSYS) agreed to acquire Waltham. Mass.-based 3D printing firm MarkForged for $42.5m in cash from Nano Dimension (Nasdaq: NNDM). MarkForged was valued at around $2.1b in a SPAC merger five years ago, but last year was acquired by Nano Dimension for just $115m. axios.link/4dy66nl

• Webster Financial (NYSE: WBS) shareholders approved a $12.3b cash-and-stock takeover offer from Spain's Banco Santander (NYSE: SAN). axios.link/4wT12S5

• Equip Capital formed a single-asset CV for European micromobilty company Ryde, led by Goldman Sachs Alternatives. axios.link/4dtxpza

• Ardian promoted Mark Benedetti to co-CEO. axios.link/4e6nKP9

• AustralianSuper promoted Shaun Manuell to chief investment officer. He'd been leading the pension fund's Australian equities team. axios.link/3RNrH2y

• Jennifer Burns Luz joined Paul Hastings as a securities litigation partner. She previously was with Goodwin Procter. axios.link/4uuKIVZ

• Bryan Fenton, former commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, is joining Carlyle as an operating executive. axios.link/4wSQe6o

• Scott Fisher joined Lowenstein Sandler as a partner in its M&A and capital markets practices. He previously was with Steptoe. axios.link/4nTj02X

• Roald Hunvik joined London-based Omni Partners as a partner leading a Nordic investment strategy. He previously was with Sweden's Monterro. axios.link/4dLV3pj

Consumer confidence is eroding, based on recent survey data from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan (the latter of which hit all-time lows).

• The stock market, meanwhile, keeps hitting all-time highs.

Got to wonder if we're beginning to transition from a B2C-dominated economy to a B2B-dominated economy.

• Stocks (and GDP) can soar while actual people struggle to make ends meet.

Yes, that's super simplistic. Retail CEOs have marveled at consumer resilience during recent earnings call, and at some point consumers need to be purchasers.

• But the circular nature of enterprise AI spend is corroding the correlation between Main Street and Wall Street.