There's been a lot written about how both Anthropic and OpenAI want to go public later this year, with each hoping to beat the other to market.

• What's been discussed less is the why.

The big picture: Tech is still in its "stay private longer" era, as best exemplified by teenaged companies like Stripe that routinely raise new funding to provide liquidity for employees and other shareholders.

• Need primary capital? It's available, particularly thanks to the influx of Middle Eastern sovereigns.
• Need secondary capital? That's available too, thus removing the other big reason companies go public.
• To date, both Anthropic and OpenAI have followed this playbook.

Zoom in: The biggest issue going forward are scale and supersonic growth.

• We're not talking about unicorns here. Or dragons or whatever you want to call $100 billion "startups."
• Anthropic and OpenAI both expect to be worth trillions — note both the "t" and the "s" — thanks to revenue run rates (and employee payrolls) that seem to double with the changing of the seasons.
• Private market liquidity is deep, but it's not bottomless.

State of play: To be clear, neither frontier lab needs to go public immediately.

• They have tons of cash to fund their GPU shopping sprees and, as we noted on Wednesday, can even tap retail investors without a ticker symbol.
• Moreover, both companies have enough currency to make chunky acquisitions. Just yesterday, Anthropic reportedly paid around $400 million for Coefficient Bio, which is developing AI models for biological research, while OpenAI paid "low hundreds of millions" for tech talk show TBPN.

The bottom line: Some things are too big to be kept in a private box.

The CFTC yesterday sued three states — Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois — for what what it calls "unconstitutional and invalid" applications of state anti-gambling laws to prediction markets.

Why it's the BFD: These cases could determine who really regulates companies like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have raised billions of dollars from venture capitalists.

• Sportsbooks also are paying close attention, including those that already have launched prediction markets in states where their "traditional" betting apps are banned.

The bottom line: This is the latest fissure between state attorneys general (of both parties) and the federal government when it comes to regulating tech companies, following fights over both AI and antitrust enforcement.

• Mercury, an SF-based fintech that made its name banking startups, is in late-stage talks to raise funding at over a $5b valuation, per Axios Pro. axios.link/3OgFnBS

• Sarvam, a Bangaluru, India-based AI firm, is raising up to $350m at around a $1.5b valuation led by Bessemer Venture Partners, per Bloomberg. Other backers would include Nvidia, Amazon, and Prosperity7. axios.link/41MiU2C

⚡️ Also, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based micromobility and autonomous delivery firm spun out of Rivian, raised $200m in Series C funding at a $1b+ valuation. Greenoaks led, joined by Prysm Capital and DoorDash. axios.link/4m9kKnv

🚑 StairMed, a Shanghai-based brain-machine interface startup, raised $69m. Alibaba led, joined by Tencent, Fountainbridge Capital, OrbiMed, Oriza Seed, Qiming Venture Partners, Lilly Asia Ventures, and Source Code Capital. axios.link/41cQtux

🚑 Generare, a Paris-based molecular data platform for drug development, raised €20m in Series A funding. Alven and Daphni led, joined by insiders Galion.exe, Teampact Ventures, and Vives Partners. axios.link/3NRSObj

• Daydream, an SF-based SEO marketing company, raised $15m in Series A funding. WndrCo led, joined by First Round Capital and Basis Set Ventures. axios.link/4c2UypZ

• Miravoice, an SF-based AI voice agent startup, raised $6.3m in seed funding. Unusual Ventures led, joined by Neo and 25madison. axios.link/41GXAeW

🚑 Wearable Robotics, an Italian developer of wearables for neuromotor rehabilitation, raised €5m in Series A funding. CDP Venture Capital led, joined by MITO Technology, LIFTT, SIMEST, and RoboIT. axios.link/47HoW8e

🚑 Acurion, a San Diego-based developer of precision oncology cancer biomarkers, raised $4.3m. TK & Partners led, joined by Mesa Verde Venture Partners, Bootstrap Ventures, The National Foundation for Cancer Research, and the Asian Fund for Cancer Research. axios.link/4m8b3WH

• Omniscient, a Paris-based decision intelligence platform for C-suites and boards, raised $4.1m in pre-seed funding. Seedcamp led, joined by Drysdale, Plug and Play, MS&AD, Raise, Anamcara, and xdeck. axios.link/4sJyCaJ

• American Pacific Group invested in Dossier, an NYC-based dupe fragrances company. axios.link/4cnFzIH

⚡️ Antin Infrastructure Partners acquired Sapphire Gas, a Conroe, Texas-based compressed natural gas and LNG firm, from Apollo. axios.link/4dsgddU

• Bonaccord Capital Partners invested in Prime Finance, an SF-based commercial real estate credit platform. axios.link/4sesAhh

• EagleTree Capital acquired marketing firm Opus from Growth Catalyst Partners. axios.link/4bO0CUG

• EQT has expressed interest in in AA, the U.K. roadside assistance firm being sold for around £5b by TowerBrook Capital Partners, Warburg Pincus and Stonepeak, per the FT. axios.link/4v6dywE

• Liquid Environmental Solutions, owned by Goldman Sachs Asset Management, acquired New Orleans Grease Trap Cleaning, a provider of grease trap and used cooking oil cleaning services. axios.link/3PJLMWJ

• Office Ally, backed by Francisco Partners and New Mountain Capital, acquired Jopari Solutions, a provider of electronic insurance claims processing. axios.link/41cqHXq

• Olympus Partners invested in Vesta Foodservice, a specialty food-service distribution company focused on the Western U.S. axios.link/4sbOIZC

• Superstep Capital merged IFS services firms JumpModel and Gogh Solutions. axios.link/41PqPfu

• White Mountains Partners acquired BaseSix Systems, a Marietta, Ga.-based provider of building systems integration and aftermarket services. axios.link/3PXqFA8

• Barrick Mining (NYSE: B) picked Goldman Sachs to lead an IPO of its North American assets, with Michael Klein also assisting, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4bQrW4L

• Churchill Capital XII, a SPAC led by Michael Klein (yup, same one), filed for a $300m IPO. axios.link/41ch9M6

🚑 General Atlantic plans to launch a sale process for ACES, a San Diego-based autism treatment provider, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4sMtWkj

• Versant Media Group (Nasdaq: VSNT) acquired StockStory, a financial insights platform that had raised around $3m from firms like Talis Capital and Credo Ventures. axios.link/4dm1ml7

🚌 Blue Bird Corp. (Nasdaq: BLBD) acquired Girardin's stake in the Micro Bird school bus joint venture for $200m, taking full ownership. axios.link/41KcFfE

• SBA Communications (Nasdaq: SBA) is exploring a sale, per Bloomberg. The report sent the Boca Raton, Fla.-based tower company's shares up nearly 19%, giving it around a $21.6b market cap. axios.link/48okbR6

⚡️ TotalEnergies (Paris: TTE) formed a $2.2b joint venture with Abu Dhabi's Masdar to merge their onshore renewable activities in nine Asian countries. axios.link/4sbPzcM

🚑 Autism Impact Fund closed its second fund. axios.link/48iKacD

• Eclipse, a VC firm focused on physical sectors like manufacturing, energy, and transportation, raised $1.31 billion across two funds, per SEC filings. axios.link/4bRCNeA

• Gateway Capital Partners, a Milwaukee-based VC firm led by Dana Guthrie, held a first close on its $25m-targeted second fund. axios.link/41bPWsY

• Women Backing Women, a U.K. fund-of-funds focused on investing in female fund managers, raised £130m toward a targeted £250m. axios.link/3PPObiv

🚑 Frazier Healthcare Partners promoted Ryan Lucero and Christina Reszka to general partners and Carol Eckert to SVP of investor relations. axios.link/3PNvzjb

• Ahmad Sheikh stepped down as a partner with SFW Capital Partners after 18 years, to launch a new firm called Industrious Equity Partners, per his LinkedIn. axios.link/41cSI0T

The U.S. economy added 178k jobs in March, much better than expected, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. Go deeper.