Limited partners in private equity funds are usually reluctant to sell their positions at a loss, fearing reputational risk. The steeper the discount, the stronger the hesitation.

• They're making a mistake, argues Joncarlo Mark, who used to lead PE investments for CalPERS and served as chair of the Institutional Limited Partners Association.

Driving the news: Mark currently leads advisory firm Upwelling, which just released an insightful new white paper called "No Country for Old Funds."

• It examined 1,200 U.S. buyout funds over the past 20 years.
• The top finding is that fund performance peaks by Year 10, no matter the decile, and universally declines after Year 12. Rather than a J-curve, it's more like the number 5 resting on its hump (you can draw it, I'll wait).
• That means most LPs would be best served by selling these tail-end funds, even at major discounts, and redeploying the capital. Break glass, beat benchmark.

What they're saying: "This should be a call to action for LPs," Mark explains.

• "Particularly now when there is an active secondaries market and you consider one's ability to recycle into more effective funds, or coinvestments. Even U.S. Treasuries right now are offering better returns to what LPs often get after Year 10."

Zoom in: Upwelling also discovered early warning signs of underperforming funds, which it thinks can be identified by Year 5.

• The metric it uses is average annual change in TVPI, and argues that if a fund isn't within 11% of median TVPI by Year 5, it likely will remain in the fourth quartile forever.

VC angle: Upwelling looked at U.S. buyout funds because they provided the deepest data pool, but Mark says the venture funds likely have a bit longer growth curve but the end result is the same — peak and then an extended tail-off.

The bottom line: Private equity portfolios are aging, as exits have become harder to come by. LP portfolios needn't follow suit.

Shein reportedly filed confidential IPO papers in Hong Kong, 18 months after filing to go public on the London Stock Exchange.

Why it's the BFD: The fast-fashion giant is trying to pressure U.K. regulators into accepting reduced disclosures into its China labor practices, as the current requirement can't get Beijing's signoff.

By the numbers: Shein was valued by VCs at $100 billion in 2022, but one year later that figure was slashed to $66 billion.

• Backers include HongShan, General Atlantic, Mubadala, Claure Group, Tiger Global, Jafco Asia, C Capital, Pan Pacific Capital, and Brookfield.

The bottom line: "While the retailer has about $12 billion in cash on its balance sheet and is in no hurry to float, its investors and advisers are urging the company to accelerate a process that first ran into trouble when Shein failed to win approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 2023." —Zijing Wu, FT

• Xpanceo, a Dubai-based maker of night-vision contact lenses, raised $250m in Series A funding at a $1.35b valuation led by Hong Kong's Opportunity Venture (Asia). axios.link/3GzXX3V

• Huspy, a UAE proptech for finding homes and mortgages, raised $59m in Series B funding. Balderton Capital led, joined by Founders Fund, Peak XV Partners, ExBorder Partners, Turmeric Capital, COTU Ventures, BY Ventures, Dara Management, and KE Partners. axios.link/3TuqbjB

⚡ PetroApp, a Saudi provider of fuel management software, raised $50m. Jadwa Investment led, joined by Bunat Ventures. axios.link/45TmtYd

⚡ Tulum Energy, a developer of clean hydrogen for industry, raised $27m in seed funding. TDK Ventures and CDP Venture Capital led, joined by Doral Energy-Tech Ventures, MITO Tech Ventures, and TechEnergy Ventures. axios.link/4ljuvOY

• Arago, a German developer of low-power photonic chips, raised $26m in seed funding from Earlybird, Protagonist, Visionaries Tomorrow, Generative IQ, and C4 Ventures. axios.link/4nBRbvn

• Ekho, a platform for online vehicle purchases to OEMs and auto dealers, raised $17.3m in seed and Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Backers include Activant Capital, JPMorgan Payments, Winnebago Industries, and YC. axios.link/44khheP

• Filics, a German warehouse robotics startup, raised €13.5m from Sandwater, Alven, F-Log Ventures, Amazon Industrial Innovation Fund, Bayern Kapital, Capnamic, and 10x Founders. axios.link/4lEX0q3

• Gradient Labs, a London-based agentic AI startup focused on regulated industries, raised $13m in Series A funding. Redpoint Ventures led, joined by Localglobe, Puzzle Ventures, Liquid 2 Ventures, and Exceptional Capital. axios.link/3GslFPO

• Kuru, a trading platform built on the Monad blockchain, raised $11.6m in Series A funding led by Paradigm. axios.link/40DMAih

🌎 Chloris Geospatial, a Boston-based forest monitoring startup, raised $8.5m in Series A funding. Future Energy Ventures led, joined by AXA IM Alts, At One Ventures, Cisco Foundation, Counteract, and Orbia Ventures. axios.link/3TZbjtH

🚑 Biorce, a Spanish provider of AI solutions for pharma clinical trials, raised €5m from Norrsken VC. biorce.com

• Pimloc, a London-based AI video privacy platform, raised $5m from Amadeus Capital Partners, Edge Ventures, Zetta Venture Partners, MD One, and Symvan Capital. axios.link/4lFAGg0

• Cariqa, a German EV charging payments startup, raised €4m in seed funding. Anthemis and Contrarian Ventures, with participation from Earth, Anthemis Female Innovators Lab, Golden Egg Check, and Techstars. axios.link/4kt4BqC

• Alliance Technical Group, backed by Morgan Stanley Investment Management, acquired ESC Spectrum, an Austin-based provider of continuous emissions monitoring systems and data acquisition systems. alliancetg.com

• Axis Insurance, backed by Lee Equity Partners, acquired Canadian commercial insurer JT Insurance Services. axisinsurance.ca

• Chamberlain Group, backed by Blackstone, agreed to acquire Arrow Tru-Line, a maker of overhead garage door hardware components, from MiddleGround Capital. chamberlaingroup.com

• Constellation Wealth Capital bought a minority stake in wealth manager Merit Financial Advisors from Wealth Partners Capital Group and HGGC. axios.link/3Iy9Qbd

🚑 Development Partners International led a $190m investment into Egyptian private health-care group Alameda. axios.link/3IkAF2B

🚑 GHO Capital Partners agreed to acquire a majority holding in FotoFinder, a Bavarian provider of analogue and digital dermatoscopes, from EMZ Partners. photofinder.de

• Hg agreed to acquire A-lign, a Tampa, Fla.-based provider of cybersecurity compliance services, from Warburg Pincus. a-lign.com

• PAG is seeking to sell its 55% stake in listed Indian wealth manager Nuvama Wealth Management for around $1.6b, per the Economic Times. Bidders include EQT, CVC Capital Partners, and Permira. axios.link/406ZzZP

• PestCo, a Thompson Street Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired the assets of Waterloo, Ill.-based May Pest. pestcoholdings.com

🚑 Premier Radiology Services, a Grovecourt Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired MetisMD, a Chicago-based teleradiology provider focused on musculoskeletal imaging. metismd.com

• Rent-A-Container, an Ann Arbor, Mich.-based portfolio company of Kinderhook Industries, acquired Eagle Leasing, a provider of portable storage containers in the Northeastern U.S. rentacontainer.com

🚑 Rhône is in exclusive talks to buy majority stakes in medical device designers and manufacturers Invacare and Direct Healthcare Group. axios.link/4lkLXmf

• Socket Telecom, a Missouri-based fiber internet service provider, received an investment from Oak Hill Capital and Pamlico Capital. socket.net

• Stonepeak Partners is in talks to invest around $1b in Princeton Digital Group, a Singaporean data center operator backed by Warburg Pincus, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3GytVO3

• Summit Partners invested in Quorso Global, a London-based maker of retailer software. axios.link/4lGqEv5

• Team Technologies, backed by Arlington Capital Partners, acquired Duke Empirical, a Morgan Hill, Calif.-based maker of cardio-focused medical devices. teamtech.com

• TPG completed its $1.1b purchase of buy Sabre's (Nasdaq: SABR) hospitality solutions. axios.link/3RABmq7

• Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe acquired a majority stake in AIA Contract Documents, a Washington, D.C.-based risk management and workflow platform for the architecture, engineering and construction industry. aiacontracts.com

• Chenghe Acquisition III, a SPAC targeting businesses with an Asia presence, filed for a $110m IPO. axios.link/4nSEUTB

• Emmis Acquisition, a SPAC targeting services, manufacturing, and distribution businesses, filed for a $100m IPO. axios.link/3GxIGAE

• Shein, the fast-fashion giant, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. axios.link/4lAz6Mq

🚑 Shoulder Innovations, a Grand Rapids, Mich., shoulder replacement technology startup, filed for a $100m IPO. It reports a $15m net loss on $32m in revenue for 2024, plans to list on the NYSE (SI), and has raised over $150m from firms like USVP, Gilde Healthcare Partners, Gilmartin Capital, Aperture Venture Partners, Arboretum Ventures, and Sectoral Asset Management. axios.link/4krqQx4

• Advent International hired Rothschild to find a buyer for the public security unit of French biometrics firm Idemia, per Bloomberg. axios.link/40HnwqC

🚑 Samsung Electronics agreed to acquire Xealth, a Seattle-based digital health platform that had raised $57m from firms like McKesson Ventures, Novartis, ResMed, Threshold Ventures, Providence Ventures, UPMC and the Medical College of Wisconsin Health Network. axios.link/3IfSeB0

• Telenor (Oslo: TEL) agreed to buy the Norwegian consumer business of GlobalConnect, a Norwegian portfolio company of EQT and Pantheon Infrastructure, for over $592m. axios.link/3IiAiFR

• TopBuild (NYSE: BLD) agreed to acquire Phoenix-based commercial roofer Progressive Roofing from Bow River Capital for $810m in cash. axios.link/4eFMfRZ

• H2O America (Nasdaq: HTO) agreed to buy the assets of rival Texas water and wastewater utility Quadvest. axios.link/4nt7ESq

• Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD) agreed to acquire metals royalties company Sandstorm Gold (TSX: SSL) for $3.5b. axios.link/3TYr8kh

• Pendo, a Raleigh, N.C.-based customer analytics platform, agreed to acquire Israeli predictive analytics company Forwrd, per Axios Pro. Pendo backers include Thoma Bravo, Bonfire Ventures, Spark Capital, Battery Ventures and Sapphire Ventures. Forwrd raised funding from Angular Ventures. axios.link/46viQrC

• Wabtec (NYSE:WAB) agreed to acquire Frauscher SensorTech, an Austrian provider of train detection, wayside object control solutions, and axle counting systems, from France's Delachaux for €675m. axios.link/45YJEQR

• Boldstart Ventures of Miami raised $250m for its seventh fund. axios.link/3GgkjaO

• Ego Death Capital raised $100m for its second crypto-focused fund, per Axios. axios.link/40JOcqL

• Heavybit, a VC firm focused on enterprise infrastructure, raised a combined $180m for its fifth flagship fund and second opportunity fund. axios.link/3GckLqA

• Permira of London is targeting €17b for its ninth flagship buyout fund, per PE News. axios.link/46xHVlH

• Philip Durst (ex-Brush Street Investments) and Michael Batal (Kemnay, Rho Private Capital) joined Pritzker Alternative Strategies as senior advisors. pritzker-pas.com

• Janet Foutty, ex-CEO of Deloitte Consulting, joined Amboy Street Ventures as a strategic advisor. amboystreet.vc

• Keith Jones joined Invesco as global head of private markets products. He previously was with Nuveen. invesco.com

• Joseph Lloyd joined Richard K. Mellon & Sons as a VP and investment officer. He previously was CIO at Trivedi Family Office. axios.link/3GADdJr

• Ophir Shmuel joined Mubadala Capital as has of biz dev and IR. He previously was with Eaton Partners. axios.link/44hz4mO

• Nick Stevenson joined SMBC as a managing director and head of TMT corporate and investment banking. He previously was with RBC. smbcgroup.com