The Iran war has stopped oil and fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but it hasn't stopped Middle Eastern money flows. Yet.

The big picture: Countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia have successfully positioned themselves as global financial centers, while regional sovereign wealth funds have become major global investors.

• For example, Middle Eastern sovereigns last year invested $42.5 billion in direct venture capital — up from $13.3 billion in 2024, per PitchBook.
• And that doesn't account for the billions more that flowed indirectly via commitments to outside venture capital funds. Plus a ton of private equity dealmaking, both direct and indirect.

Driving the news: Iran yesterday threatened to target banks with ties to the U.S. or Israel, prompting many to vacate offices in places like Dubai and Doha.

• Sources say that employees at other investment firms already were working from home or had temporarily relocated.

Zoom in: So far the disruptions don't appear to have negatively dealmaking.

• Just yesterday we learned about a Saudi group offering to buy London-listed oil producer Capricorn Energy and a Qatari fund bidding for pizza chain Papa Johns (see Final Numbers below).
• Two U.S. private fund placement agents tell me that they've not yet heard about commitment delays or missed capital calls by Middle Eastern institutions. Another notes that the largest of these groups have full-time staff outside the region, thus reducing possible disruptions.

Yes, but: It's been less than two weeks since the war began, and the end game is murky.

• Some Middle Eastern countries may instruct their wealth funds to slow new disbursements, given their increased domestic security costs and drastically reduced export revenue.
• Remote work is no longer the same disruption as it was in 2020, but it still can cause unexpected complications — particularly if air travel is restricted.
• And that doesn't even begin to address the potential reputational damage for countries that had pitched themselves as safe and stable places to do business.

The bottom line: The Middle East has become a critical source of global capital, including for large AI companies and projects. It's no longer a sure bet.

PayPay, a Japanese payments app controlled by SoftBank, raised $880 million in its IPO — falling well short of expectations.

Why it's the BFD: The 2026 IPO party is paused, and may not restart until SpaceX hits the road.

Zoom in: PayPay priced at $16 per share, below its $17-$20 per share range, for a $10.8 billion fully diluted value, and will list on the Nasdaq (PAYP).

• This comes just days after Medtronic carveout MiniMed priced at $20 per share, versus a $25-$28 range.

By the numbers: U.S. IPO pricing activity is down 29% year-over-year, while filing activity is off 19%, per Renaissance Capital.

• Proceeds are 24% higher, with PayPay becoming the largest U.S. listing by a Japanese company since Line in 2016.

The bottom line: Some companies are getting out, despite the Iran war, but are raising less than expected. And the calendar cupboard is looking pretty barren.

• Replit, an SF-based development environment, raised $400m in Series D funding. Georgian led, joined by G Squared, Prysm Capital, 1789 Capital, YC, Coatue, a16z, Craft Ventures, QIA, Accenture Ventures, Databricks Ventures, Okta Ventures, Tether, Shaquille O'Neal, and Jared Leto. axios.link/4ruZU2Z

• FYI: I'll be interviewing Replit founder and CEO Amjad Masad at the Axios AI+ Summit in Washington, D.C., on March 25.
• Other guests include Meta president Dina Powell McCormick, Constellation Energy CEO Joe Dominguez, Lockheed Martin CTO Craig Martell, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), and Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.).

• Mind Robotics, an industrial robotics spinout from EV maker Rivian, raised $500m in Series A funding led by Accel and a16z. axios.link/4cIZnai

• Quince, a DTC online fashion retailer, raised $500m in Series E funding at a $10.1b post-money valuation. Iconiq led, joined by Baillie Gifford, Basis Set Ventures, DST Global, Marcy Venture Partners, Notable Capital, Wellington Management and WndrCo. axios.link/4sbJfD4

• PixVerse, an AI video generator, raised $300m in Series C funding at a valuation north of $1b, per Bloomberg. CDH Investments led, joined by Antler, iGlobe Partners, and UOB Venture Management. axios.link/4rpCdcs

• Axiamatic, an SF-based digital transformation startup, raised $54m from Greylock and Bessemer Venture Partners. axios.link/3OWfJCy

• Qdrant, an open-source vector search engine, raised $50m in Series B funding, per Axios Pro. AVP led, joined by Bosch Ventures, Unusual Ventures, Spark Capital, and 42CAP. axios.link/4bI8aXV

🚑 Vima Therapeutics, a Cambridge, Mass.-based movement disorder biotech, raised $40m in Series A extension financing from Frazier Life Sciences, Atlas Venture, Access Industries, and Canaan Partners. axios.link/3Nd0Mvm

• Xscape Photonics, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based silicon photonics startup, added $37m to its Series A round. Addition led, joined by IAG Capital Partners, and Nvidia. axios.link/4loOPz3

• Swarm Aero, an Oxnard, Calif.-based developer of UAV swarms, raised $35m in Series A funding. Two Sigma Ventures and Silent Ventures led, joined by insiders Khosla Ventures, Scribble Ventures, Friends & Family Capital, Construct Capital, Coatue, Founders Fund, Alumni Ventures, and MaC Venture Capital. axios.link/4s618mu

• BackOps, an SF-based OS for supply chain operations, raised $26m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Theory Ventures led, joined by Construct Capital, Gradient, and 10VC. axios.link/4biYJxP

🚑 Gestala, a Chinese brain-interface startup, raised $21.6m. Guosheng Capital and Dalton Venture led, joined by Tsing Song Capital, Gobi Ventures, Fourier Intelligence, Liepin, and Seas Capital. axios.link/4bkq9TI

• Ernesta, a custom-sized rug retailer led by Peloton founder John Foley, raised $20m in Series B funding. Addition led, joined by True Ventures, and Platform Capital Management. axios.link/4luhJy6

• Qurrent, an SF-based agent workforce developer, raised $15m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Cervin Ventures led, joined by Streamlined Ventures. axios.link/4uotRo5

• Cleafy, a Milan-based banking cybersecurity startup, raised €12m in Series B funding led by United Ventures and eCapital. axios.link/4bIT04H

• VeryAI, a palm-based identity verification platform, raised $10m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Polychain Capital led, joined by Berggruen Institute and Anagram. axios.link/4sAS5K7

• Stake, a fintech for renter cash back rewards and credit building, raised $8m in equity and debt funding. LAGO led, joined by RET Ventures, Bluefield Capital, Hamilton Ventures, Gaingels, Hub Angels, and Second Century Ventures. axios.link/40UpJyK

• Ark Labs, developer of programmable Bitcoin infrastructure, raised $5.2m from backers like Tether. axios.link/40ve6y7

🌎 AIRMO, a German space-tech focused on greenhouse gas monitoring, raised €5m in seed funding led by Ananda Impact Ventures. axios.link/4sAGPgN

🌎 Another Earth, an Austrian developer Earth observation software, raised €3.5m from Wake-Up Capital, Rockstart, Inovexus, Stamco AG, the Austrian Research Promotion Agency, and Austria Wirtschaftsservice. axios.link/4s9bjqD

⚡️ Imperium Technologies, an Austin-based steam systems intelligence provider, raised $2m from E8 Angels. axios.link/4dgpi9k

⚡️ AmpliSi, a U.K. battery material developer, raised £2m in pre-seed funding led by Northern Gritstone and Clean Growth Fund. amplisi.com

• Kayna, an Irish embedded insurance platform, raised €1.5m in seed funding led by Delta Partners, with MiddleGame Ventures, Aperture, Leo Capital, Enterprise Ireland and Digital Irish participating. axios.link/4rpd8ys

• AIM MRO, an AE Industrial portfolio company, agreed to acquire AA Bushings, a Jupiter, Fla.-based maker of landing gear. axios.link/47Eb4eG

⚡️ Ara Partners acquired thermal power-plant operator Gate City Power and ethanol producer Gate City Renewable Fuels from HF Capital for around $875m. The deal also included a stake in fuel retailer Jet. axios.link/3P3jENQ

⚡️ ArcLight agreed to acquire a 50% stake in gas power portfolio IATP from InfraBridge, a unit of DigitalBridge (NYSE: DBRG). axios.link/4ruNhVT

• Bain Capital acquired APP Jet Center, a provider of aviation services at supply-constrained airports, from Ridgewood Infrastructure. axios.link/4bpEiiR

• Blackstone agreed to acquire a majority stake in Advanced Cooling Technologies, a Lancaster, Pa.-based maker of thermal management and energy efficiency solutions. axios.link/3P14icK

• Charlesbank Capital Partners agreed to acquire a minority stake in Canadian secondaries firm Overbay Capital Partners at a C$200m valuation, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4bmC2sE

🚑 Chicago Pacific Founders invested in Nexben, a health benefits firm with offices in Chicago and San Francisco. axios.link/4rww4LN

• Chimney Rock acquired Gas Clip Technologies, a Cedar Hill, Texas-based a maker of gas detection equipment. axios.link/4lnAHpT

🚑 Dynamic Access, a Riverglade Capital portfolio company, acquired PICC Stat, a Minneapolis-based vascular access provider. axios.link/4rrCATQ

⚡️ Greenbelt Capital Management agreed to acquire Peak Utility Services Group, a Broomfield, Colo.-based utility infrastructure services provider, from Orix Capital Partners. axios.link/40YegOy

• KPS Capital Partners agreed to buy a majority stake in Jennmar, a Pittsburgh-based provider of infrastructure products for sectors like mining and construction, from FalconPoint Partners (which retains a minority position). axios.link/40VhcLY

• Norea Capital acquired Metalunic, a Canadian manufacturer of metal cladding. axios.link/4sGifuX

• BEST SPAC II Acquisition, a consumer goods SPAC, filed for a $100m IPO. axios.link/4bCqKBF

• Autonomous Solutions, an industrial vehicle automation company, acquired Scythe Robotics, a Longmont, Colo.-based developer of autonomous solutions for the landscape industry. Scythe had raised over $80m from Energy Impact Partners, True Ventures, Inspired Capital, Amazon Alexa Fund, Chestnut Street Ventures, ArcTern Ventures, and Alumni Ventures. axios.link/4roOxcY

• Warburg Pincus hired Citi to explore exit options for Oona, a Southeast Asia-focused insurer, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4lrTqR9

• Savills (LSE: SVS) agreed to acquire NYC-based real estate advisory Eastdil Secured for $1.1b (including assumed debt). axios.link/4cHwmM7

• I Squared Capital is closing in on $10b for its next flagship infrastructure fund, which is targeting a total of $15b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4bmiNiU

• Samaipata, a Madrid-based VC firm, raised €110m for its third fund. axios.link/46W9a98

• Spark Capital is seeking to raise $3b for new funds, per The Information. axios.link/4upSkcP

• Gelila Bekele joined Union Square Advisors as head of AI strategy. She previously was with Trilogy Search Partners. axios.link/3MXBstf

• HGGC promoted Matt Roesch and Phil Sampognaro to partners. axios.link/4uov3YB

Irth Capital Management just can't quit Papa Johns.

• The Qatari investment firm is partnering with Brookfield Asset Management on a new bid for the pizza chain, four months after the collapse of its similar efforts with Apollo Global Management.

By the numbers: The WSJ reports that Irth is offering $47 per share, which would value Papa John's at around $1.5 billion.

• Apollo's approach had been for $64 per share — representing a $2.1 billion value — but was pulled after the firm got cold feet amidst a fast-casual restaurant slump.
• Irth currently holds around a 10% stake in the business.