Axios Pro Rata

October 03, 2025
Top of the Morning
America is reorienting its economy around artificial intelligence at unprecedented speed and scale.
- Dealmakers are playing a central role, pumping trillions of dollars into AI-focused startups, data centers and power producers. It's the dotcom boom on anabolic steroids.
So just a quick question before heading into the weekend: What if the conventional wisdom is wrong?
For the record, AI is a tangible technology that already is reshaping how many of us live, learn, and work.
- I'm not suggesting that it may be vaporware, joining nanotech and metaverse in the dustbin.
Instead, I'm wondering about the vast economic integration in which everything moves up and to the right.
- More AI adoption requires more AI training requires more chips requires more data centers requires more power.
- An insatiable hunger. Build, build, build. Invest, invest, invest.
This scenario could play out as advertised, along with all its intended and unintended consequences.
- Yet it's also possible that cracks appear along the way. And if they're wide enough, they could swallow entire swaths of capital markets.
- For example, many businesses already have reported disappointment with the productivity results from their AI spend. We've already seen arguments of slowed capability growth between more recent GPT versions.
- We generally expect that processing capabilities will improve, both in terms of capabilities and efficiency. Particularly if and when quantum computing gets integrated.
Some of the massive data centers being stood up today could become the next generation's shopping malls. Minus the nostalgia.
- Same for some of the power plant builds, although there also are some non-AI causes of rising energy consumption.
- Both also are key parts of the Trump administration's blueprint for future GDP growth.
If the AI revolution ends up being televised just a bit lower on the dial, it could be more disruptive than the technology itself.
- Not saying that's going to happen. Just that we should at least entertain the possibility.
The BFD
Global Infrastructure Partners, owned by BlackRock, is in advanced talks to buy Plano, Texas-based Aligned Data Centers for around $40 billion, per Bloomberg.
Why it's the BFD: As I just got finished saying...
Zoom in: Aligned operates 78 data centers in North and South America, with more under development.
- In January it raised $12 billion, including $5 billion in equity, led by Macquarie Asset Management.
Catch up quick: This comes just days after an FT report that GIP is in talks to buy Virginia-based utility AES for $38 billion (most of which would be assumed debt) — as it looks to control multiple parts of the AI stack.
The bottom line: "The data center construction boom is galvanizing governments around the world. In the U.S., the White House has proposed streamlining environmental reviews for the construction of new facilities as investment pours into the industry." — Bloomberg
Venture Capital Deals
• Supabase, a Postgres database management system, raised $100m in Series E funding at a $5b valuation led by Accel and Peak XV. axios.link/3IGr6M6
• DualEntry, a New York-based ERP startup, raised $90m in Series A funding. Lightspeed and Khosla Ventures led, joined by GV, Contrary, and Vesey Ventures. axios.link/4nrEQtb
• Feedzai, a Portuguese financial fraud and crime prevention platform, raised $75m at a valuation north of $2b from Lince Capital, Iberis Capital and Explorer Investments, and previous investors Oxy Capital and Buenavista Equity Partners. axios.link/3WlOvW8
🚑 Midi, an SF-based provider of women's virtual care, raised $50m in Series C funding led by Advance Venture Partners. axios.link/48v4QiT
• Moonlake AI, an SF-based AI research lab, raised $28m in seed funding from AIX Ventures, Threshold, and NVentures. axios.link/48cRQy3
• Katana, an Estonian inventory management platform for SMBs, raised €14m in Series B extension funding. Cogito Capital Partners led, joined by Fenton/Greer Family Trust, Northzone, Atomico, 42Cap and Lightrock. katanamrp.com
• Kiutra, a German cooling system for quantum tech, raised €13m led by NovaCapital and 55 North. axios.link/42V9SkR
🌎 Tihive, French provider of industrial inspection for reducing manufacturing waste, raised €8m from Karista, Wind, and EIC Fund. axios.link/46NUQPb
⚡️ OpusFlow, a Dutch provider of software for renewables installers, raised €3.8m. Move Energy led, joined by Rise PropTech and Peak. axios.link/4mRm9y3
⚡️Voltai, a Canadian developer of wave-energy systems for ships, raised C$1.8m in pre-seed funding led by Invest Nova Scotia. axios.link/3Ish9lr
Private Equity Deals
• Cascadia Windows & Doors of Canada secured growth funding from MKB Equity Partners, Blue Earth Capital and Canada Growth Fund. axios.link/3VOt9R9
• CVC Capital Partners agreed to acquire a 20% stake in International Schools Partnership, which will continue to be majority owned by Partners Group. axios.link/4mQocCz
- CVC also agreed to buy a control stake in insurance distribution platform Bamboo from White Mountains Insurance (NYSE: WTM) at a $1.75b enterprise value.
⚡ Madison Energy Infrastructure, backed by EQT, acquired the distributed generation development platform of NextEra Energy's (NYSE: NEE) renewables arm. axios.link/4pYZPW3
• Spectrum Equity invested $180m in CyberCube, an SF-based risk modeling SaaS. axios.link/3VIRfNc
• TA Associates acquired a majority stake in FinQuery, an Atlanta-based provider of accounting automation software. axios.link/4nZTNm8
🚑 Vee Healthtek, backed by TA Associates, acquired Precision Practice Management, a St. Louis-based revenue cycle management company. axios.link/431gP3P
Public Offerings
• Beauty Tech Group, a British portfolio of at-home beauty tech brands like CurrentBody Skin and Tria Laser, is targeting a £300m market cap in its London IPO. axios.link/3KSSk2z
⚡ Karbon Capital Partners, an energy and infrastructure SPAC led by EQT chairman Thomas Karam, filed for a $300m IPO. axios.link/3IvyIRz
• Princes, a U.K. packaged foods group known for canned tuna, is weighing a £400m London IPO at a £1.5b valuation, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3KA9nX6
Liquidity Events
• KPS Capital Partners is seeking a buyer for Pemco, a Belgian enamel coatings and glass company, per PE Hub. axios.link/46MSlfL
• Perplexity acquired Visual Electric, an image generation startup seeded by Sequoia Capital. axios.link/4pSC81t
• Snyk, a Boston-based developer security company valued by VCs at $7.4b, is weighing a sale process after IPO plans "stalled," per The Information. axios.link/4nHZxBd
More M&A
• Uber (NYSE: UBER) bought Belgian data-labeling startup Segments.ai, whose seed backers include Volta Ventures and Merus Capital. axios.link/3ITBXCi
Fundraising
• Blackstone has secured $10b for its third Asia buyout fund, as it continues toward its $12.9b hard cap, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4gWASGw
• F4, a VC firm focused on consumer products, is raising up to $25m for its second fund, per an SEC filing. f4.fund
🚑 HC9, a health care VC firm based outside of Philly, is raising up to $85m for its second fund, per an SEC filing. hc9.vc
It's Personnel
• Dan Bucaro joined The Sterling Group as a partner and operating executive. He previously was CEO of Sterling portfolio company PrimeFlight Aviation Services. axios.link/4pIPPjo
🌎 Jaycee Pribulsky joined Apollo Global Management as a partner and chief sustainability officer. She previously was chief sustainability officer at Nike. axios.link/4gWEoAK
• Bret Stancil joined law firm Jones Day as a partner focused on M&A. He previously was with Latham & Watkins. axios.link/3IF5eke
Final Numbers: U.S. AI VC deals

AI deals fetched 64.3% of U.S. venture disbursements through the first three quarters of 2025, and represented 37.5% of all such deals, per PitchBook.
- Globally, those figures were 52.5% and over 30%.
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