The prediction markets sector has gone from curiosity to crowded, raising new questions for trailblazers Kalshi and Polymarket.

The big picture: Venture capital backers aren't worried, believing that the pool is plenty deep.

Driving the news: DraftKings last week became the first sportsbook to launch its own prediction market. Expect rivals to fast follow.

• This came just days after Coinbase sued three states over their efforts to regulate prediction markets, seeking court confirmation that such powers lie at the federal level with the CFTC.
• Coinbase's initial foray into prediction markets will be via a partnership with Kalshi, but certainly could move toward its own offering. That's what seems to be happening with Robinhood, a Kalshi partner that soon will launch its own prediction market via its acquisition of CFTC license holder LedgerX.
• Robinhood and Kalshi still have their deal, but Axios Pro's Lucinda Shen reports that Kalshi's investors excluded Robinhood revenue and volume during a recent fundraise.

Zoom in: It's not unusual for incumbents to muscle in on startups, but rarely do the two have such similar use cases.

• It's true that prediction markets let users bet against other users, whereas at traditional sportsbooks, they bet against the house, thus creating different profit motives. But if you're simply wagering on the Celtics to beat the Lakers, it's a distinction without much difference.

What they're saying: "You could argue that the traditional financial markets already operate as prediction markets," says Alfred Lin, a Sequoia Capital partner who sits on Kalshi's board. "For example, look at the trades around Brexit, or ahead of earnings reports."

• "I've always thought that prediction markets should become the largest markets in the world ... But I've never thought this would be a duopoly, just like there's no duopoly in stock trading or bond trading."
• Lin also doesn't seem worried about regulation, arguing that "all financial institutions look fringe until they get adopted and then standardized."

Permira and Warburg Pincus have agreed to acquire Clearwater Analytics (NYSE: CWAN), a Boise, Idaho-based investment and accounting software maker, for $8.4 billion (including assumed debt).

Why it's the BFD: It's a boomerang buyout for Permira and Warburg Pincus, which both invested in Clearwater in 2020 and helped take it public one year later.

• Each firm still holds more than a 2% stake in the company, per S&P Capital IQ, with Warburg Pincus partner Cary Davis remaining on its board of directors.

Zoom in: Francisco Partners and Temasek also are participating on the buyside.

• Clearwater shareholders will receive $24.55 per share in cash, a 47% premium over where shares traded before mid-November reports of a possible deal.
• Activist investor Starboard Value last week disclosed around a 5% position in Clearwater, calling it undervalued.

The bottom line: "The company operates a single, multi-tenant cloud platform that aggregates portfolio data and performs complex accounting and analytics in one place." — Milana Vinn, Reuters

• Tin Can, a Seattle-based developer of phones for kids, raised $12m. Greylock led, joined by Lateralus Holdings. axios.link/4j93FsD

• Nodu, a London-based stablecoin infrastructure startup, raised $1.45m led by Digital Space Ventures. axios.link/4aLryEz

• Resolve AI, an SF-based "AI production engineer," raised Series A funding led by Lightspeed at a $1b valuation, per TechCrunch. It previously raised $35m in seed funding led by Greylock. axios.link/4b1wdSG

• Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst agreed to buy asset manager Janus Henderson (NYSE: JHG) for around $7.4b in cash, or $49 per share. axios.link/494QZhP

• Ares Management invested $475m into Steward Partners, an NYC-based wealth advisor with nearly $50b in AUM. axios.link/4s6uly8

• ASG, an Alpine Investors portfolio company, agreed to acquire PlayHQ, a provider of sports administration software. axios.link/4pJwvSN

🚑 Buenavista Equity Partners agreed to acquire Instituto Bernabeu, a reproductive medicine company operating in Spain and Italy, via portfolio company Eugin. axios.link/49pvk5a

🚑 Charlesbank Capital Partners invested in HBox, a virtual care platform for specialty practices. axios.link/499UO5f

🚑 HCAP Partners invested in Puzzle Healthcare, a Detroit-based post-acute care coordination platform. axios.link/48Qw8zY

• HSG agreed to acquire luxury sneaker maker Golden Goose from Permira, with Temasek buying a minority stake. Reuters reports around a $3b enterprise value. axios.link/3MP4IBR

⚡ Integrated Power Services, a Searchlight Capital Partners portfolio company, agreed to acquire TechPro Power Group, a Crofton, Md.-based power management firm. axios.link/4auhaRs

• Omnidocs, a Danish portfolio company of Main Capital Partners, acquired a majority stake in OfficeAtWork, a Swiss provider of document creation solutions. axios.link/45nDGI2

• Nzyme invested in White Vega, a Spanish provider of SaaS for the management of physical and real estate assets. whitevega.com

⚡ Revelar Capital acquired Letterman's Energy, an Overland Park, Kan.-based propane distributor, from CID Capital. axios.link/494JvLt

⚡ Sandbrook Capital agreed to acquire United Utility, a New Orleans provider of electric utility infrastructure services. axios.link/4qhJpHp

🍩 Unison Capital agreed to buy Krispy Kreme's (Nasdaq: DNUT) Japan operations for around $65m. axios.link/3MW8TM5

• Wrist Group, a J.F. Lehman portfolio company, acquired Delaware Ship Supply, a Camden, N.J.-based ship supplier. axios.link/48SRoVO

No companies plan to go public this week on U.S. exchanges.

🚑 Aktis Oncology, a Cambridge, Mass.-based biotech focused on solid tumors, filed for an IPO. The Phase 1 biotech plans to list on the Nasdaq (AKTS), and has raised over $330m in VC funding from MPM (26.2% pre-IPO stake), Vida Ventures (14.3%), EcoR1 Capital (10.5%), Blue Owl (7%), Merck, Cowen Healthcare Investments, ArrowMark Partners, Mirae Asset Venture Investment, Timefolio Capital, Pappas Capital, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Novartis. axios.link/48YO9fz

⚡ ARKO Petroleum, a fuel distribution subsidiary of ARKO (Nasdaq: ARKO), filed for a $100m IPO and plans to list on the Nasdaq (APC). axios.link/490yBGI

• Brookline Capital Acquisition II, a defense and health care SPAC formed by Brookline Capital Markets, filed for a $100m IPO. axios.link/3Y6UwHq

• Maywood Acquisition 2, SPAC led by Zikang Wu (First Cover), filed for a $100m IPO. axios.link/496l3tl

🚑 MiniMed Group, a diabetes management device and tech business being carved out of Medtronic (NYSE: MDT), filed for an IPO. It reports a $46m net loss on $1.48b in revenue for the six months ending Oct. 24, 2025, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (MMED). axios.link/44Bbotp

• Pine Tree Acquisition, a SPAC led by Wei Qian (Fusion Park), filed for a $100m IPO. axios.link/3YCSaQu

• Bluewater agreed to sell Severn Group, a U.K.-based valves producer, to Helsinki-listed Valmet for $480m. axios.link/45nDRDc

🚑 BioMarin (Nasdaq: BMRN) agreed to buy rare disease biotech Amicus Therapeutics (Nasdaq: FOLD) for around $4.8b in cash, or $14.50 per share (33% premium to Thursday's close). axios.link/44EMtVS

• Cintas (Nasdaq: CTAS) offered to acquire work uniform provider UniFirst (NYSE: UNF) for around $5.2b in cash, or $275 per share, after having previously ended its takeover efforts. axios.link/4s9yYY9

⚡ Harbour Energy (LSE: HBR) agreed to acquire Covington, La.-based LLOG Exploration for $3.2b in cash and stock. axios.link/49aRtmA

• MadaLuxe Group, backed by Hilco Brands, acquired a majority stake in Ippolita, an NYC-based fine jewelry house. axios.link/3L8Svrb

🚑 Samsung Biologics of South Korea agreed to buy Human Genome Sciences, a Rockville, Md.-based drug production facility, for $280m from GSK (LSE: GSK). axios.link/48QEnvV

• Deerpath Capital Management raised $3.5b for its seventh private credit fund. axios.link/3LfDxzD

• Remagine Ventures of Israel raised $25m for its second pre-seed fund. axios.link/4aLrogr

🚑 Flare Capital Partners promoted Margaret Malone to partner, Uma Veerappan to VP, Amanda DiTrolio to VP of marketing and platform, and Caroline Glen to VP of IR. flarecapital.com

• MGX promoted Malik Nabulsi to managing director. axios.link/4aomFRx