Metsera is belle of the metabolic ball, the subject of an intense bidding war between drug giants Novo and Pfizer.

• Normally, such a takeover target would sit back and wait for the highest number. But this situation is anything but normal.

Catch up quick: Pfizer in September agreed to buy Metsera for up to $7.3 billion.

• Novo last week offered up to $9 billion, via a two-part pitch that included $6.5 billion at the time of signing (even if unable to obtain approvals). Metsera called Novo's offer "superior," without agreeing to it, which prompted an unsuccessful antitrust lawsuit from Pfizer.
• Both companies have since sweetened their offers. Novo is now at around $10 billion, including $7.2 billion upfront, with Pfizer at $8.1 billion but reportedly planning to match Novo.

What's next: Metsera may need to make a decision based on something beyond headline price. So let's play that out:

The case for Novo: It's a no-brainer, right? Metsera shareholders get billions of dollars even if they vote down the deal, or if antitrust regulators object, and then could go in search of another one.

• Yes, Metsera would need to repay Novo's money first. But its lead anti-obesity drug is only in Phase 2 clinical trials, which means the company's value could rise as more data is released.
• Take the money and run into the upside.

The case for Pfizer: Did you catch that part about Phase 2 clinical trials? What if the data comes in weaker than expected, after Novo gets blocked on antitrust grounds? It's the downside of upside.

• Both bids include contingent value rights, but Pfizer is the surer bet. It's already got FTC approval and doesn't leave Metsera shareholders dangling.
• Plus, there's a chance that the entire anti-obesity market is about to face a price war — based on President Trump's moves yesterday with select Eli Lilly and Novo medicines.

Zoom in: These is a first-world conundrum for Metsera, which two months ago was valued at just over $3 billion.

• And, again, it doesn't have a single product on the market. For context, today's Pro Rata newsletter will generate more revenue than Metsera has generated in its entire history.

The bottom line: Dealmakers are waiting on Metsera to make a decision. After that, don't be surprised to see a gold rush on anti-obesity drugmakers, many of which are even earlier in their clinical processes.

Metropolis, a tech-enabled parking lot network, raised $500 million in Series D funding led by LionTree at around a $5 billion valuation. It also secured a $1.1 billion syndicated term loan led by JPMorgan.

Why it's the BFD: This is both a short and long-term bet on transportation automation.

• For now, it's about consumer convenience — applying the Amazon Go model to parking. Metropolis recognizes the cars and automatically charges drivers via an app. No tickets or on-site payments.
• Longer term, it's a bet that automated fleets will need somewhere to go when not in use.

Other investors in the Series D round include Eldridge Industries, Slow Ventures, DFJ, Vista Credit Partners, SoftBank, Tekne Capital, and BDT & MSD credit funds.

The bottom line: LA-based Metropolis claims to be "the largest parking network in the United States, with 4,200+ locations and operations in 40 countries worldwide."

🚑 AAVantgarde Bio, an Italian maker of gene therapies for eye disease, raised $141m in Series B funding Atlas Venture, Forbion and Schroders led, joined by Amgen Ventures, Athos Capital, CDP Venture Capital, Columbia IMC, Neva SGR, Sixty Degree Capital, XGen Venture, and Willett Advisors. axios.link/4qNvJVG

🚑 Neok Bio, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based cancer drug developer, raised $75m in Series A funding led by ABL Bio. axios.link/4qTYTCP

• Fomo, an NYC-based social crypto trading app, raised $17m in Series A funding led by Benchmark. axios.link/49BEr39

🚑 Accipiter Biosciences, a Seattle-based immunology and oncology protein developer, raised $12.7m in seed funding. Takeda and Flying Fish Partners led, joined by Columbus Venture Partners, Cercano Capital, Washington Research Foundation, Alexandria Investments, Pack Ventures, and Argonautic Ventures. axios.link/49LBsVQ

🚑 Hepta Bio, a Foster City, Calif., liver disease testing company, raised $6.7m in seed funding. Felicis Ventures and Illumina Ventures led, joined by SeaX Ventures, Alumni Ventures, and AME Cloud Ventures. axios.link/47KOSyX

• Arx Research, a POS terminal developer for crypto and fiat payments, raised $6.1m in seed funding. Castle Island Ventures led, joined by Inflection, Placeholder, Seed Club Ventures, and 1kx. axios.link/47KVOMo

• Avallon, an NYC-based developer of insurance AI agents, raised $4.6m in seed funding. Frontline Ventures led, joined by YC, 1984, Liquid2, and Booom. axios.link/49HkuId

• Bonaccord Capital Partners made a minority investment in Kingswood Capital Management, an LA-based private equity firm focused on midmarket buyouts. axios.link/4hM6aQN

• Canopy Aerospace & Defense, backed by Trive Capital, acquired Tods Technology, a British maker of composite structures and acoustic materials for maritime defense. axios.link/4qNUVLJ

• Cleon Capital acquired two Spanish legal-tech companies: Lexer, a provider of legal and debt recovery services, and Zelsior, a provider of procedural and legal services in credit management. axios.link/4nOLnNX

• Five Arrows acquired a majority stake in NetVendor, a Tualatin, Ore.-based provider of vendor compliance management software, from Greenridge Growth Partners (which retains a minority stake). axios.link/3LsrD5h

• Haven Capital Partners and Altaline acquired Saratoga Compliance Solutions, an insurance compliance platform. axios.link/3LpIhCx

• IK Partners agreed to invest in Endrix, a French accountancy and advisory firm. axios.link/4nEmQej

🚑 Nexphase Capital Partners acquired Always Best Care, a Rocklin, Calif.-based in-home senior care company, from Gemini Investors. axios.link/4oAM1A0

• Omega Systems, a Revelstoke portfolio company, acquired Peake Technology Partners, a Bowie, Md.-based healthcare MSP. axios.link/3JmMwhJ

• The Rapid Group, a Hidden Harbor Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired O&M Solutions, a Freehold,. N.J.-based provider of operations and maintenance services for wastewater treatment plants. axios.link/3JGoNsT

• TPG offered to buy the digital banking unit of Italy's Nexi (Milan: NEXI) for around €1b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/47EK1PH

• Webster Industries, backed by MPE Partners, acquired Renold, a U.K. maker of industrial chain and torque transmission products. axios.link/4orHW0G

☕ WJ Partners invested in drive-thru coffee chain 7 Brew, and says it plans to open 100 new locations in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. axios.link/4nM9gWm

• AIR, the Dubai-based maker owner of hookah brand Al Fakher, agreed to go public at an implied $1.75b valuation via Cantor Equity Partners III (Nasdaq: CAEP), per Bloomberg. axios.link/4r20C9c

🚑 Crown Reserve Acquisition, a health-care SPAC led by Prashant Patel, raised $150m in its IPO. axios.link/44Z3BGM

• HCM IV Acquisition,a SPAC formed by Hondius Capital Management, filed for a $250m IPO. axios.link/4oyiwP6

• Amphenol (NYSE: APH) completed its $1b purchase of cable assembly firm Trexon from sellers like Audax Private Equity. axios.link/45z8i8N

🚑 One Equity Partners sold InfuCare, a Fairfield, N.J.-based infusion services company, via a founder-led buyback. axios.link/3JABXHU

• Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) is in talks to acquire ITV's (LSE: ITV) media and entertainment division, per Bloomberg.

• Comcast also hired bankers to explore a bid for Warner Bros Discovery (Nasdaq: WBD), per Reuters.

• EQT agreed to invest $930m for a 28% stake in Douzone, a listed South Korean provider of ERP software. axios.link/493rqPP

⚡ Gunvor, a Swiss commodities trader, puled its bid to buy Lukoil's international assets, following opposition from the U.S. government. axios.link/4nIL871

⚡ MEG Energy (TSX: MEG) shareholders agreed to a takeover of the Canadian oil producer by Cenovus Energy (TSX: CVE) after a five-month bidding war. axios.link/4osSNYc

• Miyoko Schinner is seeking to buy back Miyoko's, the plant-based dairy brand she founded, per AgFunderBews. It raised funding from firms like Obvious Ventures, but recently launched an ABC process. axios.link/4982I0D

• Wonder, a food hall concept valued by VCs at $7.5b, bought the Spyce robotic kitchen business of Sweetgreen (NYSE: SG) for $186m. Sweetgreen had paid around $60m in stock to buy Spyce back in 2021. axios.link/49Ci39R

• Balnord, an early-stage VC focused on Baltics startups, has raised over €70m for a fund targeting €100m. axios.link/4oqno8J

🌎 Generate Capital, an SF-based sustainable infrastructure firm, raised over $1B for its credit business. axios.link/4owSkV9

⚡ Lowercarbon Capital is raising its second VC fund focused on nuclear fusion. axios.link/3Lt0ijl

• Teleo, a lower midmarket PE firm focused on enterprise software and tech-enabled services, raised $350m for its second fund. teleocapital.com

• Innovation Endeavors promoted Davis Treybig to general partner. axios.link/4oViSPv

• Troy Iskarpatyoti joined Balance Point as a principal. He previously was with Graycliff Partners. axios.link/4p0SCTX

Remember a few months ago when we were worried that monthly jobs reports would become politicized? Seems like such a quaint concern.

• Now we don't even get them, thanks to the government shutdown, and instead are left with third-party data from firms like ADP and Challenger — the latter of which reports that layoffs surged to the highest October level in 22 years.