Deal dollars are up through the first three quarters of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. The number of deals is down.

• This isn't a barbell deals market. It's a lopsided one.

The dichotomy plays out in all sorts of deal data shared by LSEG, which is preliminary as Q3 doesn't end until next Tuesday.

• Global M&A: +32% vs. -9%
• U.S. M&A: +22% vs. -14%
• PE-backed M&A: +16.5% vs. -17.5%
• IPOs (ex-SPACs): +18% vs. -3%
• Follow-on equity offerings: +5% vs. -5%
• Total equity capital markets (including SPACs): +18% vs. -1%
• High yield bond issuance: +16% vs. -1%

There are a handful of exceptions in the LSEG data, including total debt issuance and SPAC IPOs, but they're exceptions to the 2025 rule.

And then there's venture capital, where the gap is greatest.

• For that I did a PitchBook search, which showed a 42.8% increase in deal dollars and a 31.43 decrease in deal number.

The bottom line is that this sort of deals market benefits bigger buyers, although won't necessarily result in bigger ROI.

TikTok U.S. is being valued at around $14 billion, as part of a U.S. government-brokered sale by China's ByteDance to an investor group led by Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX.

Why it's the BFD: It's a laughably low price.

• Expectations were that TikTok U.S. would be valued at least twice as high, based on its estimated U.S. revenue and user growth, plus the existence of a $20 billion bid from Frank McCourt.
• Instead it's worth almost the exact same as Snap.

Catch up quick: Vice President JD Vance disclosed the figure yesterday, after President Trump signed an executive order blessing the framework and giving all parties another 120 days to finalize details.

By the numbers: The three new lead investors would hold a combined 45% stake, split evenly.

• ByteDance would retain just under a 20% position, while non-China ByteDance shareholders like General Atlantic and Susquehanna International Group would hold 30%.
• The remaining 5% stake would go to a new investor group that remains in flux. Don't be surprised to see a lot of folks try to get in at the last minute, given the bargain bin price.

Behind the scenes: Andreessen Horowitz had been widely reported as one of the major new investors, which was true at one point but apparently hasn't been for quite some time. A major sticking point was conflicts of interest, including Marc Andreessen's board seat with Meta.

The intrigue: This deal remains far from done, and there's still a lot we don't know.

• For example, how does the algorithm license work? Is it a flat fee, or does it work more like a royalty? If the latter, that could make this deal much easier for ByteDance to swallow.
• And what about ByteDance's other apps operating in the U.S., like video-editing tool CapCut?

The bottom line: The U.S. appears to have had the leverage, convincing Beijing that it was serious about banning TikTok without a divestiture.

• Yes, Trump kicked the can repeatedly. But that strategy was just a lawsuit away from failing, and Beijing ultimately concluded that $14 billion was a whole lot more than zero.

• Inspiren, a New York-based senior living tech startup, raised $100m in Series B funding. Insight Partners led, joined by Avenir, Primary Venture Partners, Scale Venture Partners, Story Ventures, Third Prime, and Studio VC. axios.link/4mw8R9N

🚑 Thyme Care, a Nashville, Tenn.-based cancer care company, raised $97m in Series D funding at a $1b+ valuation from CVS Health Ventures, Foresite Capital, a16z, Concord Health Partners, Town Hall Ventures, and AlleyCorp. axios.link/3VCFEPM

• Factory, an SF-based software development platform, raised $50m in Series B funding from NEA, Sequoia Capital, Nvidia, and JPMorgan. axios.link/4nRHc4u

• Valence, an New York-based enterprise AI coach, raised $50m in Series B funding led by Bessemer Venture Partners. axios.link/4nty9Hc

• Beroe, a procurement decisioning startup, raised $34m from backers like Relativity Resilience Fund and Alchemy Long Term Ventures Fund. axios.link/4pMZKVo

🚑 Axon Therapies, a New York-based medical device maker focused on heart failure, raised $32m. Earlybird Venture Capital and Santé Ventures, led, joined by Deerfield Management, CD Capital, and KOFA Healthcare. axios.link/4mCHICa

🚑 Daymark Health, a Philadelphia-based cancer care company, raised $20m in Series A funding from Healthier Capital and Blue Venture Fund. axios.link/46Ipzx7

• Prelude Security, a New York-based endpoint protection platform, raised $16m. Brightmind Partners led, joined by Sequoia Capital and Insight Partners. axios.link/4nTxw9v

🚑 Resbiotic Nutrition, a Birmingham, Ala.-based maker of dietary supplements, raised $8m in Series A funding from Sororibus Capital and Biostack Ventures. axios.link/4mD8Hxn

🚑 Bonsai Health, a Santa Monica, Calif.-based health-care workflow automation platform, raised $7m in seed funding led by Bonfire Ventures and Wonder Ventures. axios.link/4mzOl8g

🌎 FREDsense, a Canadian maker of water-testing tech, raised C$7m in Series A funding. HG Ventures led, joined by Emerald Technology Ventures. axios.link/4mUSOTv

• Burnt, a food supply chain automation startup, raised $3.8m in seed funding. Penny Jar Capital led, joined by Scribble Ventures and Formation VC. axios.link/47X451H

• Acadia Capital Group invested in Trailmix Labs, a Portland, Maine-based AI and workflow automation company. trailmixlabs.com

Archimed acquired a majority stake in ExcellGene, a Swiss biotech contract manufacturer. excellgene.com

🚑 Blackstone, Nordic Capital, and Warburg Pincus are among likely bidders for La Caisse's 40% stake in French diagnostics firm Sebia, which could fetch a €5b valuation, per Bloomberg. Other Sebia backers include CVC Capital Partners, and it's unclear if it'll also sell. axios.link/3IliqL0

• BNP Associates, a Godspeed Capital Management portfolio company, acquired Studdiford Technical Solutions, an airport systems and transportation security consultant. axios.link/4my2GSM

• Emerald Lake invested in Core Transformers, a Seneca, S.C.-based provider of new and reconditioned transformers. axios.link/4nqDcYO

• Goldman Sachs Infrastructure Fund acquired Liquid Environmental Solutions, an Austin-based nonhazardous liquid waste management firm, from Audax Group. axios.link/483tJ4O

• Jensen Hughes, a Gryphon Investors portfolio company, acquired the Canadian operations of fire and life safety engineering firm Professional Loss Control (dba PLC Fire Safety Engineering). jensenhughes.com

• Shore Capital Partners invested in Comfort Temp, a Gainesville, Fla.-based provider of commercial and residential HVAC, refrigeration, and plumbing services. axios.link/4nkDzE1

• American Exceptionalism Acquisition A, a SPAC led by Chamath Palihapitiya, raised $300m in an upsized IPO. Flashback.

🚑 Drugs Made In America Acquisition II, a pharma SPAC led by Lynn Stockwell, raised $500m in the year's largest SPAC IPO. axios.link/4niFBVh

• Exzeo Group, an insurance underwriting and analytics platform being carved out of HCI Group (NYSE: HCI) filed for a $100m IPO. It reports $40m of net income on $108m in revenue for the first half of 2025, and plans to list on the NYSE (XZO). axios.link/46TB5qt

• FutureCrest Acquisition, a SPAC led by Fundstrat's Tom Lee, raised $250m in its IPO. axios.link/3VA2NCb

• Emmis Acquisition, a SPAC targeting services, manufacturing, and distribution businesses, raised $100m in its IPO. axios.link/3GxIGAE

• DB Insurance of South Korea agreed to buy Fortegra Group, a Jacksonville, Fla.-based specialty insurer, for $1.65b from Tiptree (Nasdaq: TIPT) and Warburg Pincus. axios.link/4nRXMRH

• Providence Equity Partners agreed to sell French auto classifieds business La Centrale for €1.1b to OLX Group, an online marketplace unit of Prosus. axios.link/4pMHqvy

🏈 Robert Kraft agreed to sell an 8% stake in the NFL's New England Patriots at around a $9b valuation to Dean Metropoulos (5%) and Sixth Street Partners (3%).

• In baseball deal news, Mark Ein bought a small stake in MLB's Baltimore Orioles, which is majority owned by Carlyle Group cofounder David Rubenstein.

• Capital Group acquired a 3% stake in German utility RWE. axios.link/4mzbw2s

⚡ SDIC of China is weighing its U.K. renewable energy assets, which could fetch between £500m and £700m, per Bloomberg. axios.link/482mWII

• Six Flags (NYSE: FUN) is under pressure from activist investor Land & Buildings Investment Management to sell or spin out its real estate, per the WSJ. axios.link/3IhsXH5

• Ares Management is seeking to raise more than $8b for data center investments, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4gEwlby

• Razor's Edge, a national security-focused VC firm, raised $560m for its fourth fund. axios.link/46DVAGe

• Simran Kodesia joined Peak XV Partners as head of communications. She previously led international communications for Doordash. axios.link/42PHBfo

The U.S. economy got a narrative violation yesterday, when second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.8% from 3.3%.

• The boost was driven by a rise in consumer spending, rather than by volatile categories like inventories and trade flows, and comes after a better-than-expected jobless claims.

Yes, but: Some of the blockbuster GDP growth in Q2 was a result of trade whiplash.

• Plus, the Fed's go-to inflation gauge, PCE, remained stubbornly high in August, per new data released this morning.