Axios Pro Rata

December 23, 2025
🥂 Welcome to the last edition of 2025. Thank you for welcoming me into your inboxes all year and for your feedback — glowing, hostile, and everything in between.
- We'll chat again on Jan. 5.
Top of the Morning
I asked for one-line 2026 predictions, and you responded with hundreds of them. Here's a bunch:
🤖 Artificial Intelligence
"The AI race shifts from scale to efficiency." — Karl Alomar, M13
"The biggest constraint on AI growth won't be GPUs, it will be electrical and mechanical engineers." — Jasper de Vries, Coolgradient
"A lower cost alternative to the traditional data center architecture will be unlocked, which includes footprint, power needs, cooling requirements and even the physical location." — Dayna Grayson, Construct Capital
"2026 becomes the reckoning — the point when markets shift from celebrating potential to grading execution, insisting that the story finally matches the numbers." — Larry Aschebrook, G Squared
"The most valuable AI companies won't just automate work — they'll rewire customer economics, aligning incentives and driving compounding revenue gains that legacy software can't match." — David Haber, a16z
"A lot of AI valuations will take a markdown, squeezing compensation for AI researchers at tier one startups." — Deedy Das, Menlo Ventures
"The term du jour in AI startups shifts from agentic to super-intelligent, with many more startups using '.si' instead of '.ai' domains." — Chris Eng, Sands Capital
"Enterprise AI is entering its second capital cycle, funding systems that actually learn how businesses work and deliver outcomes — and a lot of copilot spend will quietly be written off in the transition." — May Habib, Writer
"While consensus says AI centralizes talent, the opposite happens: AI makes micro-entrepreneurship viable at scale." — Sasha McKenzie, Wellington Access Ventures
"Hardware-enabled software — long considered too slow and too costly — will become one of the strongest AI moats." — Avery Rosin, Lead Edge Capital
"Consumer AI slop backlash will lead social networks to crack down and add more guardrails around AI-created accounts and content." — Amy Wu Martin, Menlo Ventures
"50 AI-native companies hit $250M ARR as hypergrowth accelerates." — Jai Das, Sapphire Ventures
"Anthropic will surpass OpenAI in ARR by the end of 2026." — Ben Charlson, Ten Eleven Ventures
"We will see a small country/official public office run by an AI." — Dave Neumann, Schroders Capital
🚑 Life Sciences
"2025 was the year of research breakthroughs in AI for drug discovery; 2026 will be the year of deployment." — Elena Viboch, General Catalyst
"Some of the early 2025 defunding of science and university pipelines means fewer early-stage innovations for early investors and a long-term gap in sourcing for some time to come." — Oliver Libby, H/L Ventures
"The FDA will step in to regulate patient-AI engagement and Digital Therapeutics 2.0 will be born." — Liam Donohue, .406 Ventures
💰 Dealmaking
"PE deal volume snaps back hard." — Paul Aversano, Alvarez & Marsal
"Direct secondaries surpass IPOs and M&A as the primary source of venture-backed liquidity." — Richard Yen, Medici Capital Partners
"2026 will be the year of middle-market M&A mania, fueled by pent-up sponsor demand and a reset in valuation expectations." — Matthew Wiener, Aon Transaction Solutions
"At least twice as many multi-decacorn exits, partially driven by the continued blending of cybersecurity and DevOps, as large players respond to the Palo Alto–Chronosphere deal with acquisitions of their own." — Aaron Jacobson, NEA
"Private equity will continue to go after insurance distribution as a target sector while carriers keep snapping up inventive/creative new underwriters." — David Seider, The Zebra
"Stacked SAFEs from recent years will keep converting and, in some sectors, expose valuation gaps and ownership uncertainty that force selective cap-table clean-ups." — Kristen Ostro, Strut Consulting
"Exits finally start flowing and not just via continuation vehicles." — Andrew Symons, SDCL
"In an exit market that will be shaped by maturing 2021 vintage assets, the ability to generate creative deleveraging solutions will be the defining factor separating productive firms from the rest."— Eric Zinterhofer, Searchlight Capital
"The secondary market hits $250B in volume, a third record-breaking year in a row." — Yann Robard, Dawson Partners
🌍 Global
"Many of the countries pissed off by the Trump tariffs and trade policy changes will unite in a new global free trade coalition." — Jules Walker, ex-KPMG
"Japan begins a quiet deep-tech renaissance." — Nicolas Sauvage, TDK Ventures
🪙 Crypto
"With steady retail and institutional flows into Bitcoin, and more dovish monetary policy on the way, we believe Bitcoin will reach the $200,000 level in 2026." — Anthony Scaramucci, SkyBridge
"The politics of AI and crypto will (unfortunately) become increasingly polarized and their fortunes tied directly to the Trump Administration; those fortunes will rise and fall with the Republican Party in the Nov. 2026 elections." — Nathaniel Loewentheil, Commonweal Ventures
"A Tier 1 global bank will acquire a major crypto custodian or infrastructure provider for over $5B to own the rails rather than rent them." — Nick Elledge, Stablecore
📈 Alts market
"Median venture returns for 2026 will disappoint, as the performance gap between 'venture exposure' and 'venture excellence' widens into a chasm." —Aaron Miller, CF Private Equity
"As the pool of active allocators shrinks, LPs able to guarantee capital will set terms, pushing FoFs into the same weakened negotiating position as the venture funds they back." — Vienna Poiesz, Strut Consulting
"VCs will be judged not only on how well they pick but also on their liquidity decisions." — Sunil Dhaliwal, Amplify Partners
"Companies will take back control of liquidity and create a new multi-hundred-billion-dollar investment category in the process: Company-led secondaries." — Pradeep Ramamurthy, NewView Capital
"The biggest risk in late-stage VC won't be missing the next unicorn—it will be overpaying for the last one." — Mike Halper, ABS Global Investments
"Private credit will continue as a dominant trend — but expect new challengers as easing bank rules intensify competition." — Tim Tracy, EY Americas
"AI will profoundly reshape financial services in 2026, including how private equity sources deals and creates value." — Gunnar Overstrom, Corsair Capital
"A number of LPs leave the venture asset class, which is exactly the wrong timing." — Hany Nada, ACME Capital
"The private equity and venture capital benchmark will finally beat the S&P 500 after three years of underperformance." — John Beil, Partners Capital
🎉 Everything else
"Mineral shortages mean higher costs for phones, laptops, EVs, and home energy systems, with startups hit hardest as raw materials get more expensive." — Roman Teslyuk, Earth AI
"The next breach won't crack a login; it'll walk through a machine identity no one remembered creating." — Jesse Scott, Opal Security
"Sports teams/assets become less institutionalized and available to retail investors." — Spencer Lazarus
"Quantum computing still won't be useful (or make money), but it will be much closer than people realize." — Alex Mack, PsiQuantum
"Fandom economics beat ad economics." — Carter Reum, M13
"Fintech consolidates at the infrastructure layer while innovation surges at the edges." — Ximena Aleman, Prometeo
"Embedded finance becomes the dominant delivery model for SMB financial services." — Prashant Fuloria, Fundbox
"Cold plunges, heat therapy, and biomarker routines go mainstream — the next big brands will sell recovery, not fitness grind." — Clément Pointillart, Verlinvest
"The reshoring boom will stall in 2026 as renewed steel tariffs make U.S. manufacturing prohibitively expensive." — Po Bronson, SOSV
"USA will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup." — Danyal Rawji
The BFD
Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOG) has agreed to acquire Intersect, a Beaverton, Oregon-based provider of data center and energy infrastructure solutions, for $4.75 billion in cash (plus assumed debt).
Why it's the BFD: This reflects increased interest in co-locating data centers and power sources.
By the numbers: Intersect, which focuses on both gas and renewable energy, has raised over $3 billion in equity funding from firms like Alphabet, TPG Rise, Trilantic North America, Greenbelt Capital Management, Climate Adaptive Infrastructure, and HPS Investment Partners.
- It's also secured billions of dollars in project financing.
Zoom in: The deal excludes Intersect's existing assets in Texas and California, plus in-development assets in California. Those would be operated by an independent company whose backers are TPG, CAI, and Greenbelt.
The bottom line: "Tech giants are aggressively hunting for power to serve energy-hungry data centers that train AI models and handle queries." — Ben Geman, Axios
Venture Capital Deals
• Erebor, a stablecoin banking startup co-founded by Palmer Luckey, raised $350m led by Lux Capital at a $4.35b post-money valuation, per Axios. Existing backers include Founders Fund, Haun Ventures, and 8VC. axios.link/4pO7RQN
• Kargo, an SF-based warehouse inventory tech startup, raised $42m in Series B funding, per Axios Pro. Avenir led, joined by Linse Capital, Hearst Ventures, Lightbank and insiders Matter Venture Partners and Sozo Ventures. axios.link/49eVRRE
🚑 Truemed, an Austin, Texas-based HSA/FSA marketplace for preventive health products, raised $34m in Series A funding. A16z led, joined by Bessemer Venture Partners, Long Journey Ventures, BoxGroup, and Trust Ventures. axios.link/4s9cfLV
Private Equity Deals
• ATIS, a Thompson Street Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired Bayline Lift Technologies, a provider of elevator inspection services in the Mid-Atlantic. axios.link/44FBrzA
• Cerberus acquired Everzinc, a Belgian provider of specialty zinc materials, from a U.S. Zinc, a portfolio company of Aterian Investment Partners. axios.link/4j7wh5j
• CPPIB and Australia's Goodman Group will invest an initial US$2.6b to launch a European data center business, with initial projects in Frankfurt, Amsterdam, and Paris. axios.link/3MICnNE
🌎 Equitix acquired a minority stake in U.K. energy-from-waste operator Viridor from KKR. axios.link/493rrBt
• FloWorks, a Wynnchurch Capital portfolio company, acquired Cranford Equipment Co., a Kenner, La.-based distributor of filtration products. axios.link/3MMJKDI
• KKR agreed to buy a majority stake in Austrian rail leasing firm Green Mobility Partners. axios.link/4p4QwCh
🚑 LDC sponsored a management buyout of Taking Care, a U.K. provider of technology-enabled care products and services, from AXA Health. axios.link/3Y4djmC
• LongueVue Capital invested in Saelens, a Wisconsin-based maker of cast and precision machined components. axios.link/4p95siy
⛵ Oakley Capital invested in Athena Racing, the British America's Cup team. axios.link/45c4Y46
• Olo, a restaurant SaaS provider owned by Thoma Bravo, acquired loyalty program startup Spendgo. axios.link/3KYeJw2
⚡ The State Group, an Apollo portfolio company, acquired J&J Electric, a Kokomo, Ind.-based electrical contractor. axios.link/4p9kPYr
• Stonepeak agreed to acquire TeleTower, Bitė Group 's towers business in Lithuania and Latvia. axios.link/49pSng8
⚡ TPG agreed to acquire a majority stake in Conservice, a River Heights, Utah-based utility management platform for the property management industry, from Advent International and TA Associates. Advent will retain a minority stake. axios.link/4ssIDJR
🚑 Vista Equity Partners invested in Dentira, an SF-based procurement and spend management platform for dental practices and multi-site healthcare operators. axios.link/44GtEBB
• Vitruvian Partners acquired Aquabyte, an SF-based aquaculture company. axios.link/4pLNV17
Public Offerings
• Legato Merger IV, a SPAC led by blank-check vets David Sgro and Eric Rosenfeld, filed for a $200m IPO. axios.link/48ZSyyR
• OneIM Acquisition, a SPAC formed by execs of OneIM, filed for a $250m IPO. axios.link/44DpH0z
Liquidity Events
🚀 CACI International (NYSE: CACI) agreed to acquire ARKA Group, a Danbury, Conn.-based space defense-tech company, from Blackstone for $2.6b in cash. axios.link/4pf7j5z
• Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) agreed to buy prediction markets startup The Clearing Co., which this year raised $15m in seed funding from USV, Coinbase, Asylum Ventures, Haun Ventures Management, Compound, Rubik Ventures, Cursor Capital, Variant, and Earl Grey Capital. axios.link/3KWMQED
• ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) agreed to acquire SF-based cyber exposure management company Armis for $7.75b in cash. Armis has raised $1.45b in VC funding, most recently at a $4.2b valuation, from firms like Insight Partners, CapitalG, One Equity Partners, General Catalyst, Alkeon Capital, Brookfield Technology Partners, and Georgian. axios.link/4pKPxrU
More M&A
🚑 Accordion, a private equity-focused financial and technology consultancy, acquired RCM consultancy Pinnacle Healthcare Advisors. axios.link/44ErDWy
• Harman, a unit of Samsung Electronics, agreed to buy the autonomous driving unit of Germany's ZF Group for €1.5b. axios.link/3Nd0bJs
It's Personnel
• Centerview Partners promoted Bob Beasley to partner. axios.link/4jdzkcm
🇨🇦 Mark Wiseman was named Canada's ambassador to the U.S. He's the former head of alternative investments for BlackRock, ex-CEO of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, and chair of Alberta Investment Management Corp. (AIMCo). axios.link/3MZSNRH
Final Numbers


The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter of 2025, per a shutdown-delayed report.
- It's much better than economist expectations, and the highest quarterly mark since Q3 2023.
📬 Thanks for reading Axios Pro Rata in 2025, and to copy editors Bryan McBournie and Mickey Meece!
- This newsletter makes a great stocking stuffer, so please ask your friends, colleagues, and cousins to sign up.
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