Airline deal activity may heat up this summer, even if United has ended its pursuit of American Airlines.

The big picture: Global jet fuel prices are skyrocketing, and supply is dwindling, due to the U.S.-Iran conflict that feels no closer to resolution today than it was several weeks ago.

• It's putting enormous pressure on airlines — particularly those that already might have been flying too close to the sun.
• Not just Florida-based Spirit Airlines, which the Trump administration may rescue, but also several European carriers

Driving the news: Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ireland-based budget carrier Ryanair, yesterday told CNBC that "you'll see European airlines fail" if jet fuel prices remain at $150 per barrel or higher.

• The average global price was $179 per barrel at the end of last week, including $187 per barrel in Europe.

Zoom in: European governments have shown little historical appetite for bailing out flag carriers, travel industry analyst Henry Harteveldt tells me.

• "During COVID, there was minimal support for airlines," he says. "In some cases, there was help for employees, but nothing like what we had here in the U.S., where $50 billion was given to airlines."
• He adds that budget carriers like Ryanair, EasyJet and Wiz often now fly as many, if not more, domestic routes as some flag carriers — thus reducing the pressure on governments to act. Moreover, European Union rules could stymie bailout efforts.

Zoom out: That means you could have a bunch of airlines looking either for capital infusions or total takeovers.

• Delta jumps out as the most obvious U.S. suitor, given its history of buying minority stakes in other airlines. United also has clear acquisition ambitions, given the situation with American (which would be unlikely to buy, given its massive debt load).
• Middle Eastern carriers like Emirates also could have interest, although the war has weighed on revenue.

Yes, but: It's possible that even the deepest-pocketed airlines will choose to keep their powder dry, given the jet fuel price uncertainty.

• Harteveldt also suggests that one of the European budget carriers could seek to buy Spirit, or at least strike some sort of licensing deal.

The bottom line: If jet fuel prices don't come down, investment volume will go up.

Kone, a Finnish elevator and escalator maker, has agreed to buy Germany's TK Elevator for €29.4 billion from Advent International and Cinven.

Why it's the BFD: This creates the world's largest lift maker by sales.

• It's also the largest M&A transaction ever in Finland, and one of the largest exits for European private equity.

Zoom in: Kone will pay €5 billion in cash and around €15 billion of newly issued stock, with the headline price also including assumed debt.

• TK Elevator last month said it was considering strategic options that could include an IPO.
• The merger already has been slammed by a labor union official who also serves as deputy chair of TKE's ​supervisory board.

Catch up quick: Advent and Cinven carved TK Elevator out of Thyssenkrupp for €17.2 billion in 2020, beating out Kone and CVC Capital Partners.

• It was Europe's largest buyout since before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

The bottom line: "A deal would provide Kone with greater exposure to the profitable U.S. maintenance business with efficiency gains from greater scale." — Bloomberg

🚑 Aidoc, an Israeli medical imaging platform, raised $150m in Series E funding, per Axios Pro. Goldman Sachs Alternatives led, joined by General Catalyst, SoftBank Investment Advisors, and NVentures. axios.link/422wAa8

• Scout AI, a Sunnyvale, Calif.-based "frontier lab for defense," raised $100m in Series A funding led by Align Ventures and Draper Associates. axios.link/4t88GEV

• Firestorm Labs, a San Diego-based supplier of portable drone factories to the U.S. military, raised $82m in Series B funding, per Axios Pro. Washington Harbour Partners led, joined by NEA, Ondas Capital, In-Q-Tel, Lockheed Martin Ventures, Booz Allen Ventures, Geodesic Capital, and Motley Fool Ventures. axios.link/3OKTOhV

• Kashable, an NYC-based provider of employee financial wellness programs, raised $60m in Series C funding. Goldman Sachs led, joined by Revolution and EJF Ventures. axios.link/4vR8qgd

• Manifest OS raised $60m in Series A funding at a $750m valuation. Menlo Ventures led, joined by Kleiner Perkins, First Round Capital, and Quiet Capital. axios.link/499VqIL

• OpenLight, a Goleta, Calif.-based silicon photonics startup, raised $50m in Series A extension funding. Matter Venture Partners led, joined by Acclimate Ventures, Catapult Ventures and insiders Xora Innovation, Capricorn Investment Group, Mayfield, and New Legacy. axios.link/3QtC631

• Spread AI, a German industrial AI startup, raised $30m in Series B funding from DTCP Growth, IQT, OTB Ventures, Salesforce, Thesiger Capital, and insiders HV Capital and Nauta Capital. axios.link/3QF5Utt

• All3, a London-based robotic platform for construction, raised $25m in seed funding. RTP Global led, joined by SuperSeed, Begin Capital, s16vc, and VNV Global. axios.link/4tYAXiR

⚡ CleanDesign, a Canadian maker of software-controlled batteries, raised $20m led by Edison Partners. axios.link/4u7PnwC

• Liquid, an NYC-based multi-asset trading platform, raised $18m. Left Lane Capital and Neo led, joined by Paradigm, General Catalyst, Haun Ventures, K5 Global, SV Angel, AntiFund, and Sunflower Capital. axios.link/4cCInSz

🚑 Hypervision, a London-based developer of hyperspectral imaging for surgery, raised £17m in Series A funding. Heal Capital led, joined by Angelini Ventures, IP Group, Daycrest, Heran, Redalpine, LifeX Ventures, and Zeiss Ventures. axios.link/4ulg5C7

🍺 Crazy Mountain, a non-alcoholic beer brand founded by George Clooney and his Casamigos partners, raised $15m in seed funding, per the NY Times. CAVU Consumer Partners led, joined by Coatue and Discovery Land Co.

• General Analysis, an SF-based startup that helps companies safely deploy agentic AI, raised $10m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. Altos Ventures led, joined by 645 Ventures, Menlo Ventures, and YC. axios.link/41Ymbw3

• OpenObserve, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based data monitoring startup, raised $10m in Series A funding led by Nexus Venture Partners and Dell Technologies Capital, per Axios Pro. axios.link/42x9Jn8

• Dex, a London-based recruitment platform, raised $5.3m in seed funding. Notion Capital led, joined by a16z and Concept Ventures. axios.link/4n1fFhI

• Cleo Labs, a French product regulatory compliance startup, raised €1.5m. Larry Berger led, joined by Kima Ventures and Financière Saint-James. axios.link/4ecAQuT

• Tapaya, a Czech payments infrastructure startup, raised €1m in pre-seed funding led by Passion Capital and Depo Ventures. axios.link/4vXgZGk

• Acron Technologies, a TJC portfolio company, agreed to acquire Sightline Intelligence, a Portland, Ore.-based processor of videos for defense purposes, from Artemis. axios.link/4t0b3d6

🚑 Archimed and La Caisse completed their acquisition of Stago, a French analyzer of blood coagulation issues. axios.link/4ehjehw

⚡ Arlington Capital Partners acquired Kennesaw, Ga.-based nuclear engineering firm Enercon from Oaktree Capital Management. axios.link/4ehA1kC

⚡ Blackstone will invest up to €2b into pan-European renewables developer Eurowind Energy. axios.link/3QCwfs8

• Bregal Milestone acquired a majority stake in CoreGo, a German payments and event tech company. axios.link/4ei9PpR

• CC Capital and OneIM completed their acquisition of Australian financial services firm Insignia Financial (ASX: IFL) for A$3.9b. axios.link/4mYUI76

🚑 Corporate Technologies, a portfolio company of Tonka Bay Equity Partners and Northstar Capital, acquired RPM Technologies, an Indianapolis-based managed services company for life sciences. axios.link/3QsWnWt

• CVC Capital Partners is weighing a €9b takeover of Italian payments group Nexi (Milan: NEXI), per the FT. axios.link/48rI6iN

• Hg invested in Teamworks, a Durham, N.C.-based provider of sports operating software, valuing it over $1.5b. axios.link/3OwDzFb

• I Squared Capital agreed to acquire Brazil's Elea Data Centers. axios.link/3PbjQeh

⚡️ I Squared Capital acquired Pittsburgh-based renewable energy developer Oriden from Mitsubishi Power Americas. axios.link/425v72H

• Integrity, a Dallas-based health and life insurer, acquired TC Financial, a Minneapolis-based marketing group. Integrity backers include HGGC, Silver Lake, Harvest Partners, GIC Private, and Carlyle. axios.link/3P88veY

• Montagu agreed to acquire a majority stake in DQS, a German management system certification group. axios.link/49buA2X

• O2 Investment Partners invested in Steffl Drilling & Pump, a Willmar, Minn.-based provider of water well drilling and repair services. axios.link/4ujJWLa

• Pacific Equity Partners offered to buy Australian outdoor advertising firm oOh!media (Asx: OML) for A$747m. axios.link/4eQkNmG

• Strattam Capital acquired PurchasePlus, an Australian provider of procurement software for hospitality. purchaseplus.com

• Valor Exterior Partners, a portfolio company of Osceola Capital, acquired Braintree, Mass.-based Associate Roofing. axios.link/48NMYz5

• Collective Acquisition II, a SPAC led by Daniel Hoffman (ex-Cerberus), raised $220m in its IPO. axios.link/3O5gtFe

• Pershing Square Capital Management, the hedge fund firm led by Bill Ackman, reportedly raised around $5b in an IPO after pricing at the low end of its range. BFD flashback

• Adyen (Amsterdam: ADYEN) will pay €750m to acquire TalonOne, a German loyalty and incentives platform that had raised over $140m from firms like Silversmith Capital Partners, Meritech Capital Partners, and CRV. axios.link/4mRUONC

• Advent International agreed to sell French biometrics firm Idemia Public Security to Spanish travel tech company Amadeus (Milan: AMA) for €1.2b in cash. axios.link/4w3yQM0

• Ametek (NYSE: AME) is in talks to buy the testing and measurement business of Indicor, a CD&R portfolio company, per Bloomberg. A deal could be worth around $5b. axios.link/48sljmW

• Genstar Capital sold Obsidian Insurance, an NYC-based insurance fronting platform, to Protective Life. axios.link/4cBrt6O

• RELX (LSE: REL), owner of LexisNexis Legal & Professional, agreed to acquire French legal AI platform Doctrine from Summit Partners. axios.link/4mWxJJP

• Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE) completed its $1.9b acquisition of Boston-based marketing SaaS Semrush (Nasdaq: SEMR). axios.link/4o2y8t2

• Agero, a white-label provider of digital driver assistance services and software for auto and insurance brands, completed its take-private acquisition of roadside assistance firm Urgently. axios.link/4n17hPp

• Augment, a VC-backed supply chain AI platform, acquired B2B distribution company Merlin, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4uh19EO

🥃 Brown-Forman (NYSE: BF) and Pernod Ricard (Paris: RI) ended merger talks, maybe paving the way for Sazerac to buy Brown-Forman. axios.link/4da7SL4

• Carson Group Carson Group of Omaha acquired Harbor Wealth Management, a Green Bay, Wis.-based firm overseeing $396m. axios.link/4txsWB0

🚑 Chiesi, an Italian drugmaker, agreed to acquire rare disease biotech KalVista Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: KALV) for around $1.9b. axios.link/4w47IMU

• Cognizant Technology (Nasdaq: CTSH) agreed to acquire Astreya, a San Jose, Calif.-based IT consultancy, for around $600m. axios.link/4mV5Stn

• Fundamental Brands, a Delray Beach, Fla.-based beauty and personal care holding company, agreed to buy Great American Beauty and its licensing subsidiary Palm Beach Beauté. axios.link/4ueQwCs

• MoonPay, last valued by VCs at $3.4 billion in 2021, acquired Sodot, an Israeli crypto security startup seeded by Entrée Capital. The deal reportedly is valued at around $100m in stock. axios.link/4tLz2hi

• Sniffles, a cruising app for non-heterosexual men, raised $100m from Match Group (Nasdaq: MTCH). axios.link/4ei85gj

• Socket, a VC-backed cybersecurity platform, acquired Secure Annex, a provider of extension security solutions. axios.link/3QtxLwL

• Illuminate Financial of London raised $135m for an early-growth fund. LPs include BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Börse, HSBC, Jefferies, RBC, S&P Global, and TD Securities. axios.link/4cOjF0g

• Northwestern Mutual committed $150m for its third fintech VC fund. axios.link/3OKEn9s

• Citizens Private Bank promoted Sam Heshmati to head of VC and innovation banking. axios.link/4wcDnvI

• Lauren Goodwin joined KKR as a managing director and chief investment strategist for global wealth solutions. She previously was with New York Life Investments. axios.link/4ugobvJ

🚑 InTandem Capital Partners named firm founder Elliot Cooperstone as CEO and managing partner. It also promoted Brad Coppens to president and managing partner, Chris Reef to partner, Lauren Mangino to managing director, and Jackson Monnin to VP. Aaron Newman joined as a principal from Brighton Park Capital. axios.link/3R86xvF

• Andrew Kwok joined Mayer Brown as an LA-based partner in its global funds and asset management practice. He previously was with PEG Cos. axios.link/3QSzM5D

• Jon Korngold is leaving Blackstone, where he's served as head of global growth equity. This is part of a restructuring that will see the growth business focus exclusively on AI investments, led by Jas Khaira. axios.link/4w55e0S

• James Smith joined Levine Leichtman Capital Partners as a London-based managing director. He previously was with Advent International. axios.link/4tQ9OOP

• Lillian Tsinikas joined Moelis & Co. as a managing director focused on health-care services. She previously was with Lazard. axios.link/4vVx4MM