The tide is turning for fintech companies that want to go public.

Why it matters: It's largely well-known, fast-growing or near-profitable names seeking to test the IPO waters. But the data suggests that the waters are warmer for larger swath of companies than conventional wisdom suggests.

Context: About two-thirds of fintech companies that went public in the heady pandemic era remain underwater, data from Renaissance Research shows.

• Fintech has been historically one of the most well-funded industries in venture land, so investors watch public performance.

Driving the news: 12 of the 40 fintech companies that have gone public since 2020 have provided positive returns to investors.

• Five of those have managed to beat the S&P 500's gains in the same period — Shift4 Payments, AppLovin, Upstart Holdings, Intapp, and Global E-Online.
• Notably, profitability hasn't been a requirement of their stock's outperformance: Only Shift4 Payments and AppLovin operate in the green.
• In the third quarter of last year, Global E-Online grew its topline revenue by 32%. Upstart grew by 46% in the fourth quarter, and Intapp by 18% in the same period.

The big picture: Fear is squeezing the IPO window more so than reality would suggest is necessary.

• Ironically, fintechs were previously one of the most beaten up on public markets. But more fintech companies (29%) are now above water than the broader tech ecosystem (about 22%, per Renaissance Capital).

Ethiopia's sovereign wealth fund and U.K. private equity firm Asset Green agreed yesterday to raise $600 million for a dairy farming and agriculture project.

Why it's the BFD: Ethiopia has struggled with a series of famines since the 1970s, and a recent civil war and drought could trigger another.

Context: Ethiopian Investment Holdings and Asset Green's partnership — in which the latter is expected to be the majority shareholder — comes as the country is seeking to attract private investors.

Between the lines: Ethiopia went to war against the Tigray People's Liberation Front in 2020, agreeing to cease hostilities in 2022 after thousands of deaths.

• Since then, international organizations have warned of famine, especially in the country's northern-most region of Tigray, though the Ethiopian federal government has denied it.
• The UN estimates that it has registered some 6 million "of the most vulnerable people" as of early 2024.

The intrigue: USAID notably provides significant food assistance to the country, meaning the nation will likely be one of the hardest hit by Trump administration cuts to the agency.

• xAI, Elon Musk's AI business, is reportedly in talks to raise $10b at a $75b valuation with Sequoia Capital, a16z, and Valor Equity Partners, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4i2PcfT

• Figure, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based robotics startup, is in talks to raised $1.5b led by Align Ventures and Parkway Venture Capital at a $39.5b valuation. axios.link/42RWE9t

🚑 Abridge, an SF-based generative AI startup for clinical notetaking and billing, raised $250m in Series D funding co-led by Elad Gil and IVP, with participation from Bessemer Venture Partners, California Health Care Foundation. abridge.com

🚑 Bambusa Therapeutics, a Boston-based biotech focused on dermatological conditions, raised $90m in Series A funding. RA Capital Management led with participation from Janus Henderson Investors, Redmile Group, Invus and ADAR1 Capital Management. axios.link/4gP9dFI

• Dream, a Tel Aviv-based cybersecurity company focused on nations and critical infrastructure, raised $100m in Series B funding led by Bain Capital Ventures at a $1.1b valuation. Group 11, Tru Arrow, Tau Capital and Aleph also participated. axios.link/41lHVSM

• Luminance, a Cambridge, U.K.-based startup drafting legal documents with AI, raised $75m led by Point72 Ventures. Forestay Capital, March Capital and National Grid Partners also participated. axios.link/3X8VBOO

• Udaan, an Indian B2B e-commerce company, raised $75m valuing it at $1.8b. M&G Prudential led with participation from Lightspeed Venture Partners. axios.link/41mdnAk

• Cambridge GaN Devices, a U.K.-based gallium nitride power devices maker, raised €30.5m in Series C funding. British Patient Capital led and was joined by Parkwalk, BGF, Cambridge Innovation Capital (CIC), Foresight Group, and IQ Capital. axios.link/4hH7Gmu

• Capi Money, a London-based international payments business, raised €17.2m in Series A funding led by Creandum. Janngo.africa, Y Combinator and Firstminute Capital participated. axios.link/41irbfg

• Nodes & Links, a London-based construction projects documentation company, raised $12m in Series B funding led by ETF Partners. SFC and Uncorrelated participated. nodeslinks.com

• Imperia, a Spain-based supply chain management startup, raised €10m in Series A funding co-led by Burda Principal Investments and Samaipata, with participation from Acurio Ventures and Draper B1. imperiascm.com

• Integrail, an SF-based AI integration startup, raised $10m in seed funding led by Veaam co-founder Ratmir Timashev. axios.link/41hAxYS

🚑 Level Zero Health, which makes a device for continuous hormone monitoring, raised $6.9m in pre-seed funding. redalpine led and was joined by HAX (SOSV) and Entrepreneur First. axios.link/3D8vT5Y

• Snuggs, a Berlin-based menstrual underwear brand, raised €5m led by TripleB. axios.link/4i6aWrr

🚑 BEKhealth, a Research Triangle Park, N.C.-based chart abstraction and patient-matching platform, raised $4m. Hatteras Venture Partners and Boston Millennia Partners led with participation from Excelerate Health Ventures, Martin Ventures, and RTI International. axios.link/433XLmr

🚑 VoiceCare AI, an SF-based healthcare administration startup, raised $3.7m led by Caduceus Capital Partners, with participation from Bread and Butter Ventures. axios.link/3CW2Suf

• FLIT, a U.K.-based folding electric bike maker, raised £1.2m from investors including ACF Investors and Cambridge Angels. axios.link/4i1gwLI

• Polymath, a New Zealand-based gamified math education platform, raised $1m in pre-seed funding. Blackbird Ventures and GD1 led. axios.link/42VmyZW

• Align Capital Partners recapitalized AKS Engineering, a Tualatin, Ore.-based consulting firm for civil engineering, surveying, natural resources, and permitting. aks-eng.com

• Bain Capital ended its $4b pursuit of Fuji Soft (TYO: 9749), the Japanese IT company, giving way to KKR's $4.3b bid. axios.link/4k0t5IR

• BC Partners is weighing a sale of Keesing, its Dutch puzzle company. A sale could raise as much as €550m, per the FT. axios.link/41615uy

• Clayton Dubilier & Rice is weighing the sale of a stake in Motor Fuel Group, a U.K.-based fuel retail network, that could value it at £7b. axios.link/3EL444j

• General Atlantic carved out a 57% stake in Kayali, a Dubai-based fragrance brand, from TSG Consumer Partners-backed Huda Beauty. Founder Mona Kattan will own the remaining stake, and plans to buy out TSG's stake in Huda. axios.link/411g754

• KKR gave a revised offer for Australia-based Perpetual's wealth management and corporate trust businesses. axios.link/4b8C07c

• LesserEvil, a popcorn business backed by Aria Growth Partners, Valor Equity, and Invest Eco, is weighing a potential sale that could value it at $1b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4jZAwQz

🗑️ Macquarie and BCI plan to take Renewi (LON: RWI), a European waste management business, private for £707m. axios.link/4hGTLN4

• PSG invested $150m in Uscreen, a Washington D.C.-based video monetization platform. axios.link/4gNEcBY

• SURJ Sports Investment, an arm of Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, is buying a minority stake in Dazn Group, the streaming service with rights to some of Europe's top football leagues. SURJ is expected to invest at least $1b. axios.link/4hF6Mad

• Delightful Gourmet, which operates Indian meat business Licious, is seeking to IPO in 2026 in the country at a valuation of over $2b. Temasek backs the firm. axios.link/4gF8s20

• Shein, the Chinese fast-fashion platform, is reportedly under pressure from investors to cut its valuation from $45b in 2024 to $30b ahead of a U.K. listing. axios.link/4b1IPHv

• KKR acquired a A$95m stake in Employment Hero, a Sydney-based HR software solution, from SEEK Investments. Seek remains an investor in the business it values at $2b. axios.link/3QpGUmK

• Rezolve Ai (NASDAQ: RZLV) is acquiring GroupBy, a Toronto-based e-commerce platform, for $55m in equity. PeakSpan Capital and BEST Funds backed GroupBy. rezolve.com

• The Sherwin-Williams Company (NYSE: SHW) acquired Suvinil, BASF's (ETR: BAS) Brazilian architectural paints business, for $1.2b in cash. axios.link/3X1YqB2

• Broadcom and TSMC are weighing a deal to split Intel, with Broadcom reportedly eyeing its chip-design business and TSMC looking at its factories. axios.link/40XgRbg

• Light & Wonder is acquiring Greenville, N.C.-based Grover Gaming's charitable gambling business for $850m in cash. axios.link/3Qny1dm

• Lonza (SW: LONN) is seeking to sell its capsules and health ingredients business. A sale could be worth at least $2.6b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4b6QMey

• OpenAI's board rejected Elon Musk's $97.4b bid. axios.link/4jZAzMf

• Tether says it acquired a minority stake in Exor-backed Juventus Football Club (MI: JUVE). axios.link/3QkOxLd

• United Rentals (NYS: URI) abandoned plans to acquire H&E Equipment Services (NAS: HEES), a seller of material handling and earthmoving equipment, after H&E accepted a $5.3b bid from Herc Rentals (NYS: HRI). axios.link/3X5XDPG

• Greenfield Partners closed its third fund with $400m. greenfield-growth.com

• Invalda INVL Group held the first close of its second PE fund with €305m. axios.link/431t4y

• NaturalX Ventures raised €100m for its fund focused on consumer health startups. axios.link/3X9qC51

• Tikehau Capital raised €1.2b for its third special opportunities strategy. tikehaucapital.com

• Ardian dealmakers Yann Chareton and Yann Bak have left. Chareton was COO for Ardian's buyout unit, while Bak served as head of Ardian's head of climate and impact solutions. axios.link/4k6aVp1

• Cooley hired Josh Ephraim as special counsel in the emerging companies and venture capital group focused on crypto and frontier tech. He was was previously at Paradigm. axios.link/41iD2tH

• EQT appointed Per Franzén as its CEO, replacing Christian Sinding. He was previously head of the private capital business in Europe and North America. axios.link/4hWpsm1

• Qiming Venture Partners' managing partner Nisa Leung is leaving. axios.link/3Qp2wPS

It was back to 2016 for private market fundraising in 2024.

Driving the news: Venture capital and private equity investors raised 24% less for their funds in 2024 than the year prior, data from McKinsey shows.

• They also spent more time on the road: Funds that closed in 2024 were open for 21.9 months — a record high.