Private equity dealmakers are bearish on new activity in 2025, but aren't too concerned about tariffs or talk of its model being broken.

• That was consensus during a Milken panel I moderated yesterday with top execs from Bain Capital, Cinven, EQT, GIC, and KKR.

By the numbers: LSEG reports that announced deal volume through the first four months of 2025 was 19% higher than during the same period in 2024 — a relatively sluggish year for M&A — while the number of announced deals was 16% lower.

• Through the end of Q1 2025, those figures were at +15% and -15%, respectively.

Show of hands: None of the panelists expected deal volume percentages to be higher by year-end.

• Some of this relates to heightened economic uncertainty, particularly in the U.S.
• Within private equity, it's about firms are still working through ZIRP-era acquisitions that sucked up too much money and continue to suck up time.
• In short, the industry feels it just needs more time to work through its distribution issues — viewing them as more cyclical than structural.
• Also worth noting that this conversation was about the industry at-large, rather than about the panelists' own firms (such as KKR, for example, which has been extremely active of late).

Wild card: The White House plans to insist on the carried interest tax loophole being closed, as part of the "one big, beautiful bill," per new reporting from Axios' Hans Nichols.

• Panelists agreed that such a move would upend private equity's economics, and thus would change strategies for dealmaking, exits, and fundraising.

The bottom line: The animal spirits are long gone, left behind in Davos. The same crowd in Beverly Hills is more circumspect and measured, with any excitement now focusing on 2026 or beyond.

3G Capital has agreed to acquire shoe brand Skechers (NYSE: SKX) for around $9.4 billion.

Why it's the BFD: Timing.

• Skechers could get hammered by the Trump tariffs, with one-third of its $9 billion in revenue coming from the U.S. but all of its manufacturing outside of the U.S. — including 40% in China and 40% in Vietnam.
• The company said in February that it may seek to shift some production, but it's now somewhat stuck until some new trade deals are signed. Last week it reported record sales, but pulled 2025 guidance.

Zoom in: 3G will pay $63 per share, which is a 27.6% premium over Friday's closing price but well below where shares traded earlier this year.

• A limited percentage of existing Skechers shareholders may elect to receive $57 per share and a unit of the new, unlisted entity to be owned by 3G.
• We'll need to wait for regulatory filings to see if the takeover price shifted after "Liberation Day," as it has with several other large deals.

The bottom line: 3G is said to have been looking at Skechers for years, and likely is shaking its head at short-term, tariff-driven analysis of its deal.

• The Brazil-based firm isn't known for carelessly throwing its money around, having only done two major acquisitions in the past decade: Hunter Douglas in 2022 and Kraft Heinz in 2015.

• Wonder, the Marc Lore-founded cloud kitchen group that owns Grubhub and Blue Apron, raised $600m at a valuation north of $7b, per Bloomberg. NEA led, joined by Accel, GV, Forerunner Ventures and Amex Ventures. The new financing doubles the company's valuation from its previous funding round in 2022. axios.link/3EDBXEE

• Quantum Systems, a German developer of aerial intelligence systems, raised €160m. Balderton led, joined by Hensoldt, Airbus Defense, Bullhound Capital, LP&E and insiders HV Capital, Project A, Peter Thiel, DTCP, Omnes Capital, Airbus Ventures, Porsche and Notion. axios.link/4jEasK5​​

🚑 Atlas Data Storage, a DNA data storage company spun out of Twist Biosciences (Nasdaq: TWST), raised $155m in seed funding from ARCH Venture Partners, Deerfield Management, Bezos Expeditions, Tao Capital Partners, Rsquared VC, Earth Foundry, and In-Q-Tel. axios.link/4jHAL2j

🚑 Nuevocor, a Singaporean gene therapy biotech focused on cardiomyopathy, raised $45m in Series B funding. Kurma Partners and Angelini Ventures co-led, joined by EDBI, ClavystBio, Boehringer Ingelheim Venture Fund, Highlight Capital, and SEEDS Capital. axios.link/4d54tf2

​​🚑 Hilo (fka Aktiia), a Swiss-based blood-pressure intelligence platform, raised $42m in Series B funding. Earlybird Health and Wellington Partners co-led, joined by Kfund and naturalX Health Ventures. axios.link/4m3BmNb

• Recraft, an AI startup behind the "red_panda" model, raised $30m in Series B funding. Accel led, joined by Khosla Ventures and Madrona. axios.link/3RPawdO

• Blinq, an Australian digital business card app, raised US$25m in Series A funding. Touring Capital led, joined by HubSpot Ventures and insiders Blackbird Ventures and SquarePeg Capital. axios.link/4jHYYpd

• AppSignal, an Amsterdam-based app performance monitoring startup, raised $22m in Series A funding led by Elsewhere Partners. appsignal.com

🌎 Exterra, a Canadian startup focused on converting asbestos waste into critical minerals, raised C$20m in Series A funding. Clean Energy Ventures and BDC Capital co-led, joined by the Government of Quebec, Investissement Quebec, MOL Switch, and Karpowership. exterracarbon.com

• StackOne, a London-based AI integration layer, raised $20m in Series A funding. GV led, joined by Workday Ventures, XTX Ventures, Episode 1 and Playfair. axios.link/4iSugs2

🚑 HealthPlan Data Solutions, a Columbus, Ohio-based provider of pharmacy payment and benefit optimization tools, raised $15m. MK Capital led, joined by Tamarind Hill, JobsOhio, and Rev1 Ventures. axios.link/4k6xHMR

• RightRev, a Roseville, Calif.-based automated revenue management startup, raised $13m in Series A funding co-led by Cheyenne Ventures and Innovius Capital. axios.link/3GIhEX6

• Row Zero, a Seattle-based enterprise spreadsheet startup raised $10m in Series A funding. IA Ventures led, joined by Trilogy Equity Partners, Founder's Co-op, Ludlow Ventures, K9 Ventures, and Functional Capital. rowzero.io

• Paramark, a marketing spend analytics platform, raised $8m led by Greylock. paramark.com

💊 Gestalt Diagnostics, a Spokane, Wash.-based provider of digital pathology tools, raised $7.5m in Series A funding from Cowles Ventures, TVF Funds, Inland Imaging Investments, and KickStart Funds. axios.link/3YwjikR

• IPercept, a Swedish developer of predictive industrial maintenance software, raised €5m. Luminar Ventures led, joined by RunwayFBU, Backstage Invest, AI.Fund, and J12. axios.link/4d0f3DY

• AltaResource Technologies, a Boulder, Colo.-based mineral separation startup, raised $4.4m in new seed funding co-led by DCVC and Voyager Ventures. axios.link/44p7Xqs

• Lightsonic, a European software platform for distributed fiber optic sensing, raised €3.3 m in seed funding. Maki.vc led, joined by Raise Ventures and Sondo. axios.link/3GDKAiU

🌎 Goparity, a Portuguese sustainable financing startup, raised €2.9m. 3XP Global led, joined by Mustard Seed Maze, Schneider Electric, Energy Access, Regenerative.eco and InvestEco Capital. axios.link/4d0f3DY

🚑 ReportAId, an Italian health-care data startup, raised €2.2m in seed funding led by Italian Founders Fund. reportaid.ai

🌎 3D Spark, a German manufacturing and procurement SaaS focused on sustainability, raised €2m in seed funding led by Triplefair. axios.link/4kapojb

• Arcapita acquired a majority stake in Trustpoint.One, an Atlanta-based provider of tech-enabled legal services to law firms and corporations, at a valuation north of $400m. trustpoint.one

• Clearlake Capital completed its buyout of private credit manager MV Credit from Natixis. axios.link/4gbcAaR

• General Atlantic agreed to buy a minority stake in Liftoff, a Blackstone-owned mobile app marketing platform, at a $4.3b valuation. axios.link/4d03cFQ

• Jennmar, a FalconPoint Partners portfolio company, acquired Rohrig Heavy Equipment Maintenance, an Ohio County, W.Va.-based equipment maintenance and repair services business. axios.link/3EPuimE

🚑 NexPhase Capital acquired Behavior Frontiers, an El Segundo, Calif.-based autism treatment provider. behaviorfrontiers.com

• eToro, a London-based no-fee trading app, set IPO terms to 10m shares at $46-$50. It would have a $4.5b fully diluted market value, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (ETOR). Backers include Spark Capital, BRM Group, and CM Equities. The company had planned to go public in 2021 via a SPAC, but the deal was later terminated. axios.link/3GV9ieH

• Novo Banco, a Portuguese lender owned by Lone Star Funds, is prepping a Lisbon IPO that could come as early as June. axios.link/4d7zUp9

🌎 Blue Yonder, a Scottsdale, Ariz.-based supply chain management provider, acquired Pledge, a British supply-chain sustainability software developer backed by Ace Ventures, Base Partners, Globivest, To VC, Breyer Capital, and Lowercarbon. blueyonder.com

• Employer.com acquired MainStreet.com, a San Jose, Calif.-based discovery platform for R&D tax credits. MainStreet had raised over $100m from firms like SignalFire, Alumni Ventures, Ethos Fund, and Scribble Ventures. axios.link/44IVNsL

• GameStop (NYSE: GME) agreed to sell its 185 Canadian stores to toy entrepreneur Stephan Tétrault. axios.link/4iRGaT7

🏈 Michael Strahan is working on a bid for a 10% stake in the NFL's New York Giants, while Eli Manning no longer is interested, per Sportico. Strahan is partnering with Marc Lasry, who last year raised a sports-focused PE fund. axios.link/431A0tt

🚑 Deerfield Management raised $600m for its third health-care VC fund. axios.link/3Z7iOld

• Synergy Capital, led by ex-ArcelorMittal exec Sudhir Maheshwari, is raising $1b for an Asia-focused private credit fund, per Bloomberg. axios.link/44kFIsV

• Josh Pack, co-CEO of Fortress Investment Group, is moving from Dallas to London as the firm seeks to expand in Europe. axios.link/4k2VPjc

DoorDash this morning sealed its $3.9 billion takeover agreement for European food delivery company Deliveroo, and also announced a $1.2 billion deal to buy New York-based restaurant ordering platform Sevenrooms.

• Sevenrooms had raised around $75 million from firms like PSG and Comcast Ventures.

DoorDash investors can't be surprised by the consolidation push, but still signaled displeasure with shares down by more than 5% at the open.