Earlier this month we detailed how venture capital returns have underperformed public market benchmarks, based on Cambridge Associates data obtained by Axios.

• Now we've gotten our hands on a similar data set for private equity, so let's dig in:

The big picture: Private equity also has underperformed the public markets, net of fees.

• Not as badly as has venture capital, but that's cold comfort at a time when 401(k) managers are preparing to flood both markets with defined contributions.

By the numbers: Median returns for global private equity, which includes both buyouts and growth equity, came in below the S&P 500 for the 1-, 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-year periods — all through Sept. 30, 2025.

• They outperformed the S&P 500 for the 20- and 25-year periods by 150 and 217 basis points, respectively.
• It was the same story when compared to the Russell 3000, a much broader basket of public market companies.
• U.S. private equity was stronger, flipping the narrative for the 15-year benchmark at +69 basis points vs. the S&P 500 and +103 basis points vs. the Russell 3000 (and nearly even, just -3 basis points, for the 10-year vs. Russell 3000).

Zoom in: Distributions have remained tough to come by, with the global PE number below par for every global vintage beginning in 2018.

• To find a 2x DPI, you need to go back to the 2001-2003 vintages.
• It remains true that venture capital still can provide more outsized returns than can private equity. For example, the top 5% of 2012 vintage VC funds produced 9.9x DPI, whereas the best PE vintage year for the top 5% was the 2011 vintage at 4.2x.
• As you can imagine, DPI dispersion is much greater in VC than in PE.

The bottom line: Our earlier piece on VC returns sparked some complaints.

• "Focusing on median returns is stupid," one email read. "Everyone knows the key is picking the best managers."
• OK, but wouldn't the same also be true of public market investing? For example, if you'd only bought Nvidia stock five years ago, you'd be up 1,340%.
• Again, we're at a moment when a lot more money is about to be invested in private equities — both VC and buyouts — probably via some sort of index structure. Returns are more likely to mirror the median than the top quartile, let alone the top 5%.

Glencore (LSE: GLEN) isn't giving up on its hopes of buying Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO), believing a recent coal price surge could help resurrect negotiations, according to Reuters.

Why it's the BFD: This could create the world's biggest mining company.

Catch up quick: The two companies have been in tie-up talks on three separate occasions over the past 12 years, with the most recent ones ending just last month.

• Per U.K. takeover rules, they wouldn't be allowed to resume negotiations until August.

By the numbers: Coal prices are up more than 30% this year, with the biggest spike coming after the Iran war began.

The bottom line: Here we go yet again.

• Axiom Math, a mathematical superintelligence startup, raised $200m in Series A funding at a $1.6b valuation. Menlo Ventures led, joined by Greycroft, Madrona, and B Capital. axios.link/4sqdM05

• Sunday, a developer of humanoid robots for household tasks, raised $165m in Series B funding. Coatue led, joined by Bain Capital Ventures, Fidelity, Tiger Global, Benchmark, Conviction, and Xtal Ventures. axios.link/40xyLSa

• Wonderful, an Israeli AI agent startup, raised $150m in Series B funding at a $2b valuation. Insight Partners led, joined by insiders Index Ventures, IVP, Bessemer Venture Partners, and Vine Ventures. axios.link/40s28p4

• Oro Labs, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based procurement software startup, raised $100m in Series C funding. Goldman Sachs and Brighton Park Capital led, joined by Norwest Venture Partners, B Capital, XYZ Capital, and Felicis. axios.link/46YWWMX

• Gumloop, a platform for employees to build agents, raised $50m in Series B funding. Benchmark led, joined by Nexus VP, First Round Capital, YC, Box Group, The Cannon Project, and Shopify Ventures. axios.link/40rU9bC

• Cryptio, a digital asset ERP platform, raised $45m in Series B funding. BlackFin Capital Partners and Sentinel Global led, joined by 1kx, Alven, BlueYard Capital, and Ledger Cathay Capital. axios.link/3PgM5YC

• Bold, an Israeli endpoint cybersecurity startup, raised $40m from Bessemer Venture Partners, Picture Capital, and Red Dot Capital Partners. axios.link/4sc5OaH

• Onyx Security, an Israeli cybersecurity startup focused on AI agents in enterprises, raised $35m in Series A funding led by Conviction. axios.link/40yku7M

🚑 Monteris Medical, a Minnetonka, Minn.-based neurosurgery company, raised $28m in Series E funding. InnovaHealth Partners and Birchview Capital led, joined by OSF Ventures, and Colorado University Healthcare Innovation Fund. axios.link/4cFe3ah

• Freestyle, a Santa Monica, Calif.-based diaper and wipes brand, raised $10m in Series A funding. Silas Capital led, joined by ECP Growth. axios.link/4sfVZbS

• Tower, a German data engineering startup, raised €5.5m in pre-seed and seed funding from DIG Ventures, Speedinvest, Flyer One Ventures, Roosh Ventures, Celero Ventures, and Angel Invest. axios.link/4sfGvVg

⚡ Delfos Energy, a developer of applied AI for renewable and energy infrastructure operators, raised €3m in seed funding from Vox Capital/COPEL. axios.link/3Nl4Rxw

• Rox AI, an SF-based sales automation startup, raised funding at a $1.2b valuation led by insider General Catalyst, per TechCrunch. axios.link/4s4ABWF

• Bain Capital and KKR each are expected to bid on UP Education, a Sydney-based vocational and higher education firm owned by Pacific Equity Partners, per The Australian. axios.link/4b7gdyf

• Ridgewood Infrastructure acquired a control stake in Sierra Railroad Co., an Oakdale, Calif.-based shortline rail platform. axios.link/4s7nlkf

⚡ Prime Infrastructure Capital of the Philippines agreed to buy SierraCol Energy, Colombia's largest independent oil producer, from Carlyle. axios.link/40pikr7

🚀 MDA Space, a Toronto-listed provider of satellite systems and space robotics, raised $330m in a float on the NYSE (MDA), pricing shares below the as-converted last close in Toronto ($30.50 vs. $33.41). axios.link/40t0W4E

• Metals Acquisition II, a metals and mining SPAC, raised $200m in its IPO. axios.link/4rxufi4

• Pono Capital Four, a tech SPAC, raised $120m in a downsized IPO. axios.link/46XinOz

• Vincorion, a German defense-tech owned by Star Capital, is seeking to raise €300m in a Frankfurt IPO. axios.link/4lopAwU

• Suma Acquisition, a tech SPAC led by Naseem Saloojee (Carbon6 Technologies), raised $150m in its IPO. axios.link/4sNvb34

🐔 Azzurri Group, owned by TowerBrook, is weighing a sale of the U.K. and European franchises of Dave's Hot Chicken, a fast-food brand owned by Roark Capital, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4usi8ow

• Bilt, an NYC-based loyalty and payments platform valued by VCs at nearly $11b, paid $30m to acquire Sion, a travel commission management platform that had raised over $8m in seed funding from firms like TIA Ventures. axios.link/4s8kOGk

• Ramp, valued last year by VCs at nearly $32b acquired Billhop, a payment processing startup licensed in the U.K. and Sweden. Billhop had raised over $120m from firms like EQT Ventures, 13books Capital, and Almi Invest. axios.link/412lJMB

• Ripple is running a tender offer to buy back up to $750m in shares at a $50b valuation, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4diB3vS

• Rogo, a VC-backed generative AI startup focused on financial services, acquired Offset, an AI agent startup backed by HF0. axios.link/4cL4kzo

• Webflow, valued by VCs at $4b in 2022, acquired Vidoso, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based AI asset generation startup that had raised $3.7m from Aspenwood Ventures, Tau Ventures, Z5 Capital, and Emergent Ventures. axios.link/4luDuxE

• Abu Dhabi Investment Authority invested in Hong Kong-based private credit firm Dignari Capital Partners. axios.link/4boClmL

• América Móvil of Mexico is seeking to buy some Colombian telecom assets from Grupo Salinas. axios.link/4cL6Pl4

• Steven Novick joined GCM Grosvenor as a London-based managing director. He previously was with Coller Capital. axios.link/47FHXHU

• The Vistria Group named David Schuppan and Phil Alphonse as co-presidents of the firm's flagship funds, and Nick Potter as head of strategic initiatives. axios.link/4bvJMIW

🥶 U.S. GDP growth was revised down to just 0.7% in Q4 2025 — cutting the initial estimate in half.

• For context, Q4 2024 was at 1.9% and Q4 2023 was at 3.4%.