Elon Musk overpaid for Twitter when he bought it for $44 billion in late 2022.

• Musk himself subscribed to that view, having unsuccessfully tried to reneogitate or back out of the deal.

Now a new conventional wisdom is emerging: Twitter was a loss leader for the rest of Elon Inc.

• The argument is that Musk bought Twitter for power, not profit. And that the gamble paid off.
• Musk used the platform to help shape public opinion during the election, artificially amplifying his political messages and giving him influence with Donald Trump that money alone wouldn't have bought.
• Trump's victory means that Musk has become the most powerful unelected American ever — and that could be a boon for SpaceX and Tesla, whose fortunes are heavily dependent on federal government contracts and policies.
• Those two companies also are much larger than Twitter/X, even at $44 billion, and more core to Musk's lifelong goals.

Zoom in: These broader wins may be cold comfort for investors who helped finance Musk's buyout of Twitter. Revenue has plummeted, while Fidelity recently valued its shares at a 78.71% discount to cost.

• The counter would be that many of these backers also have exposure to other parts of Elon's empire.
• Fidelity, for example, also invested in xAI, which could benefit from having Trump's ear at the dawn of AI regulation.

Yes, but: All of this is dependent on Musk and Trump remaining in each other's good graces over the next four years, which is anything from a sure bet.

The bottom line: Elon Musk may be responsible for the worst tech buyout of all time. But only when considered in a vacuum.

Webster Equity Partners agreed to sell Retina Consultants of America to pharma distributor Cencora (NYSE: COR) for up to $5.1 billion.

Why it's the BFD: Private equity has been very good at rolling up independent physician practices, to the consternation of some politicians and regulators, but very bad at exiting them.

• This is a high-priced exception.

Details: Cencora (fka AmerisourceBergen) will pay $4.6 billion in cash at closing, plus up to $500 million in earnouts.

• It will own around 85% of the business, with the remainder held by RCA's affiliated practices, physicians, and management.

The bottom line: This may prove to be more about Cencora than a broader push to lighten private equity's logjam, given that Cencora did a similar deal last year when it partnered with TPG to buy OneOncology from General Atlantic for $2.1 billion.

• DeepRoute, a Chinese developer of self-driving tech, raised $100m from Great Wall Motor. axios.link/4fToB47

• Embed Security, a Milpitas, Calif., agentic security platform, raised $6m led by Paladin Capital Group. embedsecurity.com

⚡Glint Solar, a Norwegian provider of solar installation planning SaaS, raised $8m in Series A funding. Smedvig Ventures led, and was joined by Antler, Futurum Ventures, and Momentum. axios.link/3YGkmBX

• Siit, a service desk solution for IT and internal ops teams, raised $5m in seed funding co-led by StageOne Ventures and Seventure Partners. siit.io

• Thesys, a user interface startup focused on AI apps, raised $4m in seed funding. Together Fund led, and was joined by 8VC. thesys.dev

• Advent International, Apollo Global, CD&R, and PAI Partners are among those weighing offers for Reckitt's (LSE: RKT) homecare unit, which could fetch around £6b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4hAn6JE

• American Industrial Partners acquired the grain storage and seed processing business of AGCO Corp. (NYSE: AGCO). agcocorp.com

• Astorg agreed to buy a majority stake in Redslim, a Swiss provider of data management services. axios.link/3AtTBIO

• Blackstone agreed to buy U.S. shopping mall operator Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. (Nasdaq: ROIC) for around $4b, or $17.50 per share. axios.link/3CdV5qV

• Carlson Private Capital Partners invested in Quantum Design International, a San Diego-based maker of instrumentation for material characterization and other advanced research applications. qdusa.com

• Cogenuity Partners bought United Safety & Survivability, an Exton, Pa., maker of safety and survivability products for niche markets, from Dubin Clark. usscgroup.com

🚑 GHO Capital and Ampersand Capital Partners agreed to buy Avid Bioservices (Nasdaq: CDMO), a Tustin, Calif., biologics CDMO, for around $1.1b. axios.link/4hyveu1

• Rise Broadband, an Englewood, Colo., portfolio company of GI Partners, acquired the Missouri assets of MidAtlanticBroadband. risebroadband.com

• SpringHill, the LeBron James-founded media company that's backed by RedBird Capital Partners, is in talks to merge with Fulwell 73, a British media company backed by Eldridge Industries, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4fbNCHy

• Stengel Hill Architecture, an acquisition platform of Godspeed Capital Management, bought Clearwater, Fla.-based Mason Blau & Associates. masonblau.com

🚑 TA Associates is launching €1.2b takeover of Nexus, a listed German e-health company. axios.link/3CgL8cs

• Artius II Acquisition (Nasdaq: AACQ), a tech SPAC formed by Artius Capital, filed for a $200m IPO. axios.link/3UAmR7h

• RedCloud Holdings, a London-based B2B platform for consumer goods, filed for an $86m IPO. It reports a $32m net loss on $19m in revenue for calendar 2023, and plans to list on the Nasdaq (RCT). axios.link/48GIoBb

🚑 Advent International hired Goldman Sachs and PJT Partners to find a buyer at around €5b for Zentiva, a generic drugmaker that it acquired in 2018 from Sanofi for €1.9b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4fBGl3O

• Excelitas Technologies, a Waltham, Mass., portfolio company of AEA Investors, agreed to sell certain aerospace and defense-electronics assets to Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY) for $710m in cash. axios.link/3Cr59wO

• Bank of New Zealand acquired open banking startup BlinkPay. axios.link/4hAsPPC

• IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) agreed to acquire the operating assets of Qubitekk, a Vista, Calif.-based quantum networking startup. ionq.com

• Qualys (Nasdaq: QLYS), a Foster City, Calif.-based cybersecurity firm valued at around $6b, is exploring a sale, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3CqkE8e

• Take-Two Interactive Software (Nasdaq: TTWO) sold Private Division, a label for smaller games, to an undisclosed buyer. axios.link/3YSmFTF

• 4impact Capital, a Dutch VC firm, raised €68m for its second fund. axios.link/4f7pIwV

• Emerge, a European VC firm focused on edtech, raised $73m for its second fund. axios.link/48IGdNI

• Nick Schupbach and Justin Lott joined food and ag-focused Ceres Partners as managing director and director of private equity, respectively. They previously co-founded Appia Capital Partners. cerespartners.com

Carlyle Group today reported $367.1 million in distributable earnings during Q3 2024, beating analyst expectations.

• CEO Harvey Schwartz said during an earnings call that he expects existing economic tailwinds to intensify now that the election has been decided, which should increase dealmaking.
• He added that "certainty" would be the driving factor, more than Trump policy vs. Harris policy, although did note that CEOs are more likely to attempt deals now that Biden's antitrust regime is expected to depart.

On that last point, I'm not quite so sure why dealmakers are convinced Trump will be an M&A pushover. His prior administration's FTC and DOJ did take narrower views of their mandate, but did try to block plenty of deals.