Conventional wisdom is that now is a terrible time for private market investors to launch first-time funds. But that isn't stopping a slew of folks from trying.

The big picture: Limited partners are seeing a wave of general partners spinouts, and many expect that the trend will outpace industry consolidation, according to a recent Coller Capital survey.

• One major reason, they say, is that firms have done a lousy job nurturing homegrown talent.
• Coller's questionnaire didn't go a level deeper, but it's not too hard to read "tilted fund economics" in that response. Everyone inside a firm knows who brings in the home run deals, and if that rainmaker doesn't get compensated like one.

By the numbers: 38% of LP respondents said they expect the number of new managers to increase over the next three to five years, compared to just 33% who say they expect it to decrease.

• The "increase" cohort was particularly strong among Asia-Pacific respondents (64%).
• Coller also found that 36% of LPs report the number of spinout funds within their portfolio has increased within the past few years, while only 3% said it's decreased. The majority said it's remained flat.

Zoom out: Raising a first-time fund is never easy, and many believe the process has become even more challenging as LPs have sought to shrink their manager rosters — preferring to plug larger amounts into multi-strategy firms.

• Plus the VC/PE distribution drought that's reduced the amount of available LP capital.
• On the other hand, LPs also worry that too much mega-fund exposure won't allow them to beat industry benchmarks — which means many are willing to bet on a few emerging managers to provide alpha.

What they're saying: "It's like the old phrase: people hate Congress but love their congressperson," a veteran LP tells me. "A lot of people are super risk averse (and liquidity crunched) right now, making emerging funds a challenge to raise, but known quantities de-risk the decision for those who are able to put out capital."

• A Silicon Valley fund formation lawyer adds: "Some brand-name firms with past reputations, but lagging DPI are struggling. In many ways, a 'star' GP is better positioned to spin-out and shed any negative association with a prior firm."

Applied Intuition, a Mountain View, California-based embedded intelligence platform for autonomous vehicles, raised $600 million in Series F funding at a $15 billion valuation led by BlackRock and Kleiner Perkins.

Why it's the BFD: Self-driving is the present, not the future, as evidenced by over a thousand Waymos on the road in major cities and Tesla's upcoming robotaxi launch in Austin.

Zoom in: The new valuation more than doubles what Applied Intuition was worth early last year, when it raised a $250 million round led by Porsche Ventures, Lux Capital and Elad Gil.

• A source says the round includes $200 million of primary capital and $400 million of secondary.
• Other new investors include Franklin Templeton, Qatar Investment Authority, Abu Dhabi Investment Council, Premji Invest, Stripes, Greycroft, BAM Elevate, and 137 Ventures.
• Return backers were Fidelity, General Catalyst, Lux, Bond, Elad Gil, Addition, and Tribe Capital.

The bottom line: "Autonomous vehicle developers need to rely on synthetic data and simulation to train their deep neural networks to handle the unexpected. Applied Intuition's software helps them prepare for those so-called edge cases, like a woman in a wheelchair chasing a duck." — Joann Muller, Axios

• Helsing, a German defense-tech startup focused on NATO's Eastern flank, raised €600m in Series D funding. Daniel Ek's Prima Materia led, joined by BDT & MSD Partners and insiders Lightspeed, Accel, Plural, General Catalyst, and Saab. axios.link/4jU2VpY

• Juniper Square, an SF-based provider of connected fund software for private markets, raised $130m in Series D round funding at a $1.1b valuation. Ribbit Capital led, joined by Fifth Wall, Redpoint Ventures, HighSage Ventures, and Blue Owl Capital. axios.link/4l88mCG

• Coralogix, an Israel-based observability platform, raised $115m in Series E funding. NewView Capital led, joined by CPPIB and NextEquity. axios.link/448NUuE

• Mach Industries, an Austin, Texas-based aerospace defense-tech startup, raised $100m at a $470m valuation co-led by Khosla Ventures and insider Bedrock Capital, with Sequoia Capital participating. axios.link/4l7GAGn

🚑 Nabla, a New York-based provider of AI assistants for clinical care, raised $70m in Series C funding. HV Capital led, joined by Highland Europe, DST Global, Cathay Innovation, and Build Collective. axios.link/4446eoK

• Browserbase, a "headless browser" startup, raised $40m in Series B funding at a $300m valuation, per Alex Konrad. Notable Capital led, joined by insiders Kleiner Perkins and CRV. axios.link/4n6vuTY

🚑 Sword Health, a Draper, Utah-based virtual physical therapy provider, raised $40m at a $4b valuation, per Axios Pro. General Catalyst led, joined by Khosla Ventures, Comcast Ventures, Lince Capital, Oxy Capital, Armilar Ventures, Indico, and Shilling. axios.link/4l6CSg7

• Payabli, a Miami-based embedded payments platform, raised $28m in Series B funding led by insiders QED Investors and Fika Ventures, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4e8TxgP

• Uncountable, a digital platform for industrial research and development, raised $27m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Sageview Capital led, joined by SE Ventures, Teamworthy, 8VC, and MK Capital. axios.link/3SQlQaa

• Bigger Games, a Turkish mobile games studio, raised $25m in Series A funding. Goodwater Capital, and Arcadia Gaming Partners led, joined by Index Ventures and Play Ventures. axios.link/4e4adGe

🚑 Arima Genomics, a Carlsbad, Calif.-based cancer diagnostics startup, raised $22m in Series C funding led by Illumina Ventures and named Illumina Ventures partner Tom Willis as its new CEO. arimagenomics.com

• Onebrief, a maker of military workflow software, raised $20m led by Battery Ventures at a $1.1b valuation, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4kcLdON

⚡️ Vecmocon Technologies, an Indian battery management tech developer, raised $18m in Series A funding. Ecosystem Integrity Fund led, joined by Aavishkaar Capital. axios.link/4kLbjte

• Extend, a New York-based document processing platform, raised $17m in combined seed and Series A funding from Innovation Endeavors, YC, and Character VC. extend.ai

⚡️ Voltfang, a German battery storage installer, raised €15m in Series B funding. ForwardOne led, joined by Interzero, PT1, Helen Ventures, Daphni, Aurum Impact, Fiege Ventures, and Newberry Investments. axios.link/4jS0xQk

🚑 Nimbus Health, an Atlanta-based virtual pulmonary care provider, raised $12m led by 2048 Ventures, with participation from 8VC and K50. axios.link/45sMWM6

• Lumion, a Salt Lake City-based operating platform for trade and technical schools, raised $10.7m in seed funding. TTV Capital led, joined by Tusk Venture Partners, CreativeCo Capital, and Nine Four Ventures. joinlumion.com

• XFX, a Miami-based developer of infrastructure for international settlements, raised $9.1m in seed funding led by Haun Ventures, per Axios Pro. axios.link/3G2HncN

🌎 Vegdog, a German vegan dog food brand, raised €9m in Series A funding led by the European Circular Bioeconomy Fund and Green Generation Fund. axios.link/4l8GK06

• Future Fields, a Canadian protein biomanufacturing startup, raised US$8 million in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. Backers include Amplify Capital, BDC, R7 Partners. Toyota Ventures, BoxOne Ventures, Builders VC, TRAC VC, and University of Alberta Innovation Fund. axios.link/3ZvtVF2

• Zoot, a sweepstakes gaming platform, raised $6m in seed funding. CoinFund led, joined by Griffin Gaming Partners. getzoot.us

• Crosby, an AI legaltech startup, raised $5.8m in seed funding led by Sequoia Capital. axios.link/461Nf0v

• All In Foods, a snack brand formerly known as This Bar Saves Lives, raised $4m led by Obvious Ventures. allinfood.com

• Digger, an SF-based maker of dev tools for infrastructure, raised $3.6m in seed funding led by Initialized Capital. digger.dev

• SaturnX, an infrastructure provider for stablecoin-based cross-border payments, raised $3m in seed funding led by White Star Capital. saturnx.money

⚡️ Engrate, a Swedish distributed energy resource management provider, raised €2.5m in seed funding. Maniv led, joined by Eviny Ventures and Course Corrected. axios.link/3HKNEKH

• Ovido, a Finnish supply chain and product data automation platform, raised €2.4 in seed funding. Lifeline Ventures and Kvanted led, joined by Illusian. axios.link/3TsgqlS

• Renow, a Finnish management platform for returned and secondhand goods, raised €1.8m in seed funding led by Greencode Ventures. renow.ai

• AE Industrial Partners acquired Air Transport Components, a Gilbert, Ariz.-based provider of aircraft component MRO services. atcphx.com

• Aerial Machine & Tool, an Argosy Private Equity portfolio company, acquired Hazard Protection Systems, an Anchorage-based provider of passive fire suppression solutions for military, industrial, and commercial vehicles. aerialmt.com

Allied Industrial Partners invested in Pride Dynamo, an Abilene, Texas-based provider of distributed power solutions. pridedynamo.com

🍷 Atlas Vineyards Management, backed by Juggernaut Capital Partners, acquired vineyard management firm Results Partners from Clearview Capital Group. axios.link/3HKe9jk

• Goldman Sachs acquired Danish telematics firm Trackunit from Hg (which retains a minority stake). trackunit.com

• Integris, an OMERS Private Equity portfolio company, acquired TechMD, an Endicott, N.Y.-based managed service provider. integrisit.com

• Mavis Tire Express Services, a portfolio company of Neuberger Berman Alternatives, completed its acquisition of auto services brand Midas from TBC, a Florida portfolio company of BayPine. axios.link/43T9HpO

• Paine Schwartz Partners invested in Chex Finer Foods, a Mansfield, Mass.-based food distributor to grocery stores. chexfoods.com

• Partners Group agreed to acquire U.K. pet foods maker MPM Products from 3i. axios.link/44fPR9L

• Pollen Street Capital approached UK challenger bank Metro Bank about a takeover, per the FT. axios.link/4e5Ko8N

• PSG made a growth equity investment in Button, a mobile commerce optimization backed by VC firms Redpoint Ventures, Norwest Ventures, and Icon Ventures. usebutton.com

⚡ Shermco Industries, a Gryphon Investors portfolio company, acquired Eastern High Voltage, a Robbinsville, N.J.-based electrical testing firm. shermco.com

• Vista Equity agreed to buy packaging software firm Amtech from Peak Rock Capital. axios.link/4l82N7b

🚑 Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe invested in Constitution Surgery Alliance, an Avon, Conn.-based operator of ambulatory surgery centers. csasurgery.com

• Kilcoy Global Foods, an Australian protein products supplier, filed for a $100m IPO. It reports US$2.2b in revenue for its most recent fiscal year and plans to list on the Nasdaq (KGF). Shareholders include Hosen Capital and Asia Alternatives Management. axios.link/3HGG2J6

• Lenskart, an Indian omnichannel eyewear retailer, is preparing to file for an IPO that could raise around $1b, per Bloomberg. Backers include SoftBank, Temasek, and Fidelity. axios.link/4e2wggq

• Solarius Capital Acquisition, a SPAC focused on asset and wealth management businesses, filed for a $150m IPO. axios.link/3TqaUQD

• Tron, the crypto company from Justin Sun, will go public via reverse merger with toymaker SRM Entertainment (Nasdaq: SRM). axios.link/3TwAIdS

• Candle Media, the Blackstone-based media company whose brands include Moonbug and Reese Witherspoon's Hello Sunshine, tells Axios in Cannes that it plans to sell or IPO its individual brands, rather than the entire company. axios.link/3HKJkLn

• DoorDash (Nasdaq: DASH) completed its $1.2b acquisition of Sevenrooms, a New York-based restaurant ordering platform that had raised around $75 million from firms like PSG and Comcast Ventures. axios.link/3HJeC5x

• SoftBank sold around $4.8b of shares in T-Mobile US (Nasdaq: TMUS), as it builds its balance sheet for AI investments. axios.link/45lFrqa

🚑 Ascension Health of St. Louis agreed to acquire Nashville-based ambulatory outpatient center AmSurg for $3.9b. axios.link/43ORACM

• Coty (NYSE: COTY) is seeking to sell itself via separate processes for its luxury and consumer units, per WWD. axios.link/4l2FOu8

🚑 Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) agreed to acquire Boston-based gene editing firm Verve Therapeutics (Nasdaq: VERV) for up to $1.3b ($1b upfront). axios.link/3TqbbmD

• Millennium Management, the hedge fund led by Izzy Englander reportedly is in talks to sell a minority stake at a $14b valuation. axios.link/4n9PTaQ

⚡ Mitsubishi Corp. (Tokyo: 8058) is in advanced talks to buy the assets of Dallas-based energy investment firm Aethon Energy Management for nearly $8b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/44gsNHP

• Phlur, a California-based fragrance brand, hired Raymond James to explore a sale, per Axios Pro. axios.link/4lcXGCY

• Advent International is prepping an APAC-focused fund, per PE International. axios.link/4n5bm4m

• Endeavor Catalyst is raising $300m for its fifth global VC fund, per TechCrunch. axios.link/4kQnPrs

• Hg is targeting €7.5b for its 11th midmarket fund and €2.5b for its fifth lower market fund, per PE International. axios.link/43Nfy1p

• Orbit Capital of the Czech Republic raised €100m for its second venture debt fund. orbitcapital.com

• Joseph Cassanelli, former co-head of Lazard's financial institutions group, joined Blackstone Tac Ops as a managing director, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4e4K7mH

• Erik Hansen joined Drake Star as a managing director. He previously was with Menalto Advisors. axios.link/4jPfumo

• Rob Rosin joined VC firm Antler as an SF-based partner. He previously was with Defy.vc. axios.link/4efkyPN

• Clearlake Capital Group hired Josh Lederman (ex-KKR) as managing director of capital markets, Tasha Pelio (JPMorgan) as managing director of marketing and comms, Eric Rimmke (Advent) as a principal, and Chad Neal (Cyblade) as SVP of infosec. clearlake.com

Coller Capital's survey also showed the LP interest in private credit and secondaries continues to accelerate, at the expense of private equity.