Founders Fund was one of the earliest investors in SpaceX, investing $20 million in 2008. It kept backing the company, with a stake that could be worth more than $60 billion at IPO.

• Scott Nolan was an early SpaceX employee who later became a Founders Fund partner. I spent some time speaking with him as we await the amended S-1.
• The full Q&A is available here. What follows are some excerpts:

Axios: Would you have made the original SpaceX investment that Founders Fund made, based on information available at the time?

Nolan: "Absolutely. I was extremely confident SpaceX would succeed at that point. If you looked at the launches they had done, it just got better every single time.

• "There really were no major technical hurdles left for launch three or four to be a success. It just seemed inevitable that it would work with funding, and Founders Fund helped the third and fourth launch happen."

If not technical challenges, there were still commercial ones. Commercial space launch wasn't yet an industry.

"Yeah, that's right. It's kind of a pattern of Founders Fund liking to invest in companies before there's a category.

• "The first SpaceX investment was before commercial space launch was a thing. Then we invested again before reusability was a thing and then made another large investment before satellite-based comms was a thing. And then it just keeps going.
• "I think it's a pattern with these multi-chapter companies like SpaceX, where there's a really long-term mission that's extremely ambitious. The way to address it is to build some sort of primitive piece of a future world. For SpaceX, the primitive is space launch and cheap space launch at scale. And if you do that, it unlocks all these other things — all the way to what we're seeing now with AI."

If Elon had left SpaceX, would Founders Fund have kept investing?

"It's a tough hypothetical. Going to your earlier question of Elon or the tech, I'd say either one would get you there. You don't want to bet against Elon, but it's also probably the best engineering team on the planet."

Was there ever a point where Founders Fund worried that it wasn't working?

"I don't think so ... The investment we made which was mostly on faith, the biggest step function on the existing business, was when we invested close to $100 million in 2017 before Starlink was real."

How has the SpaceX investment informed other Founders Fund deals?

"I think the big lesson from SpaceX is that companies that work can be so much bigger than you think? There's so much potential when you're building something that's foundational to a whole new economy. And when you have a founder that doesn't get comfortable with success, but keeps challenging the idea of what the company can be."

Elon will get a giant earnout if SpaceX can build a Mars colony with one million people. Does he ever get that stock?

"I wouldn't bet against him."

Flashback: My newsletter Q&A with former Founders Fund partner Luke Nosek, when the original $20 million deal was done.

Groq is raising up to $650 million from existing investors, after having previously signed a $20 billion licensing deal with Nvidia that saw much of its senior team depart, Axios has learned from a source familiar.

Why it's the BFD: Groq is one of the biggest AI wins so far for venture capitalists, and those same investors now get a second bite at the apple.

• Or at least a different sort of apple, as Groq transitions from being an AI chipmaker into an AI inference neocloud business.

Zoom in: Groq's investors already got paid out, with a final cash distribution hitting soon, via the Nvidia deal.

• Now they're being asked to participate pro rata in Groq 2.0, with existing backers Disruptive and Infinitum backstopping the $650 million if it's not filled.
• Groq 2.0 is being led by company vets Adam Winter (CEO) and Matt Eng (CFO).
• Existing shareholders will receive the remaining cash distributions and then have the opportunity to invest into a new company.

The bottom line: Don't be surprised if this becomes a new transaction template in the AI private markets.

• Cognition, an SF-based AI coding company, raised $1b at a $26b valuation, per Bloomberg. Lux Capital, General Catalyst and 8VC led, joined by Ribbit Capital, Atreides Management, and Founders Fund. axios.link/4acEnX0

⚡️Thea Energy, a Kearny, N.J.-based stellarator fusion system developer, raised $100m in Series B funding from USIT, General Innovation Capital Partners, Linse Capital, Calm Ventures, Climate Capital, Divergent Capital, Emerald Technology Ventures, Gaingels, Idemitsu Kosan, Overlay Capital, Timescale Ventures, and Whatif Ventures. axios.link/4dAd5ft

🚑 ClearNote Health, a San Diego-based developer of early-detection solutions for cancer, raised $52m in Series D funding. Mattias Westman led, joined by Sandy Weill. axios.link/4e7nOhA

• Orbital Industries, a London-based data center infrastructure startup, raised $50m in Series B funding. Pural led, joined by insiders NVentures, Radical Ventures, Compound, and Fly Ventures. axios.link/4v6WlCy

• Daloopa, an NYC-based provider of source-linked financial data for investment firms, raised $47m in Series C funding, per Axios Pro. Brighton Park Capital led, joined by Squarepoint Capital, Touring Capital, and Nexus Venture Partners. axios.link/431FS6z

• Canals, a provider of wholesale distribution tech solutions, raised $35m in Series A funding led by Base10 Partners, per Axios Pro. axios.link/3PQABM5

• Geordie AI, a London-based security and governance platform for AI agents, raised $30m in Series A funding. Balderton Capital led, joined by Crosspoint Capital, General Catalyst and Ten Eleven Ventures. axios.link/4nRZxQ9

• Saris, a provider of back-office agents for banks and credit unions, raised $28.8m in Series A funding, per Axios Pro. 8VC led, joined by Audacious Ventures, Homebrew, Btech Consortium, and Service Ventures. axios.link/4eaF85i

• Capchase, an NYC-based B2B financing startup, raised $26m in equity funding. 01 Advisors led, joined by Caffeinated Capital, Thomvest Ventures, Scifi VC, Bling Capital, and Invesco. It also secured a $174m credit facility. axios.link/4dAd6A3

⚡️Endurance Energy, a Seattle-based developer of undersea geothermal energy projects, raised $25m-$30m led by Founders Fund, per Axios Pro. axios.link/49t0OHk

🚑 Triomics, an SF provider of workflow software for oncologic clinical trials, raised $22m in Series B funding. Battery Ventures led, joined by Nexus Venture Partners, Lightspeed, and YC. axios.link/4fdi8Us

🚑 Solstice, an NYC-based pharma marketing startup, raised $21m in Series A funding led by Transformation Capital, per Axios Pro. axios.link/3PL0s8k

🚑 Waypoint Bio, an NYC-based cell therapy biotech, raised $20m in Series A funding. Amplify Partners led, joined by General Catalyst, Time BioVentures, Lux Capital, and Hummingbird Ventures. axios.link/4dC41XG

• C2i Semiconductors, an Indian voltage regulator platform, raised $16.7m from TDK Ventures and Peak XV Partners. axios.link/4nQIHRw

• Trajectory, an SF-based continual learning platform, raised $15m in seed funding. Conviction led, joined by Bessemer Venture Partners, Radical VC, and BoxGroup. axios.link/4dyxXUt

• Slamcore, a London-based provider of spatial intelligence software, raised $14m from ROKStar Ventures, Toyota Ventures, Interwoven Ventures, MMC Ventures, Amadeus Capital Partners, and IP Group. axios.link/4dJrJQl

🌎 StrainX Bioworks, an Indian precision fermentation developer, raised $13m. Prime Venture Partners and Leo Capital led, joined by Good Startup, Sparrow Capital, Sun Icon Ventures, Dholakia Ventures, and WindT Angels. axios.link/4fbPRh8

⚡️ Itera, an SF-based hardware prototyping startup for electronics, raised $12m in seed funding led by Upfront Ventures, Costanoa Ventures, and Colle Capital. axios.link/4u1IWuv

🚑 Ember LifeSciences, a Westlake Village, Calif.-based provider of cold-chain tech for pharma, raised $10.5m in Series A extension funding led by Amgen Ventures and TDF Ventures. axios.link/4afkdvA

🌎 Pacifico Biolabs, a German alt-meat developer, raised €7m in Series A funding from Stray Dog Capital, TGFS, Sprout & About Ventures, Simon Capital, and FoodLabs. axios.link/4afkf6G

• Sond, a Boston-based developer of earbuds for improved sleep, raised $7m from E14 Fund, Crosslink Capital, Ubiquity Ventures, Alumni Ventures, and Meach Cove Capital. axios.link/4vjRi1P

• Byron, an agent platform for tax prep, raised $6.5m in seed funding. Square Peg led, joined by Sorenson Capital and Liquid 2 Ventures. axios.link/4wTNFkH

⚡️ Caudal Energy, U.K. tidal energy developer, raised £4.3m. Oxford Science Enterprises and Empirical Ventures led, joined by insiders Zero Carbon Capital and Creator Fund. axios.link/4wVbQPu

🌎 Mycor, a U.K. developer of low-carbon construction materials derived from waste, raised £4m. Clean Growth Fund led, joined by the British Business Bank and Green Angel Ventures. axios.link/4e4h9EZ

🚑 Cypher AI, a Cambridge, Mass.-based life science digital infrastructure developer, raised $2m in seed funding. MaC Venture Capital led, joined by Epsilon Ventures, Connecticut Innovations, Sparta Group, and LiquidMetal Ventures. axios.link/4nVZB1l

🎬 Advaya Capital acquired Comscore Movies, a provider of theatrical box office data, from Comscore (Nasdaq: SCOR). Lead Edge Capital co-invested alongside Advaya. axios.link/4fIFod1

• Apollo is investing around $2b for a 20% stake in Apex Service Partners, a residential HVAC, plumbing and electrical services business backed by Alpine Investors. axios.link/4uJDIoA

• Fortress Investment Group acquired IPValue Management Group, an intellectual property licensing company, from Vector Capital. axios.link/4v8sbP9

• Heartland Food Products, the Carmel, Ind.-based maker of Splenda and SlimFast, agreed to acquire the Americas business of Whole Earth Brands, the Chicago-based maker of zero-calorie sweetener Equal. axios.link/4dOrUdj

• Juniper Landscaping, a Bregal Sagemount portfolio company, acquired Hilton Head Landscapes, a landscape services provider in South Carolina's Lowcountry region. axios.link/4vfcDt9

• Main Capital Partners acquired Ferranti, a Belgian provider of utilities sector software. axios.link/4dXhaJQ

• Rep Data, a Mountaingate Capital portfolio company, acquired Owl Solutions, a Victor, N.Y.-based survey programming company. axios.link/3Ppamwk

🚑 Stonepeak agreed to acquire a majority stake in Estia Health, an Australian residential aged care operator, from Bain Capital. axios.link/49t33dI

⚡️ Avalanche Energy, a Seattle-based maker of tiny nuclear reactors, hired Jefferies to prepare for an IPO that could come later this year, per Axios Pro. It's raised around $175m in VC funding. axios.link/3RRAWPj

• BioMar, a Danish fish-feed company owned by Schouw & Co., raised $410m in a Copenhagen IPO. axios.link/3PIHRd4

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said at a Bernstein conference that he doesn't plan to pursue a major acquisition, after having been rebuffed by American Airlines.

• At the same event, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said "there might be in the next couple of years a chance to put $10-$20 billion to buying something."

• CIBC agreed to sell its Caribbean unit to Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son for $1.6b. axios.link/4veD5Tt

• EU antitrust regulators opened a fullscale investigation into JD.com's (Nasdaq: JD) agreement to acquire listed German electronics retailer Ceconomy for €2.2b. axios.link/4veNnmK

• Ethan Choi, formerly of Khosla Ventures, is targeting $500m for a debut fund, per The Information. axios.link/4dOujEW

• KKR opened a Milan office to be led by partner Marco Fontana, who's relocating from London. axios.link/4dNSV0h

• Transition Ventures of London raised €128m for its second early-stage fund. axios.link/431vUlG

• Jessica Delbaum joined Davis Polk as a partner in the law firm's antitrust axios.link/4e8BXLy

⚡️ EIV Capital, a Houston-based energy PE firm, promoted Jason Tracton to partner. axios.link/4fRcnvI

• EQT promoted Nicholas Macksey and Hari Gopalakrishnan to co-heads of Asia private equity. axios.link/4tYX3Rm

• Mo Islam joined Obvious Ventures as a partner. He previously was with Threshold Ventures. axios.link/43xTNBz

• Sam Lipson and Justin Rattigan joined Norm Law as partners and co-heads of its VC and emerging companies practice. Rattigan previously was general counsel for Bain Capital Ventures and Bain Capital Crypto, while Lipson was with Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman. axios.link/4nTURJf

• Abigail Xu joined Greenberg Traurig as a shareholder in its PE practice. She previously was with Paul Weiss. axios.link/3Rx9TZz

Fertitta Entertainment, owner of the Golden Nugget casino chain, today agreed to buy Caesars Entertainment for $5.7 billion in cash, or $31 per share.

• That's a 49% premium over where Caesars was trading on Feb. 25, when deal talk first leaked, and a 7.7% premium on yesterday's close.
• But it's still a very far cry from the $30 billion valuation Caesars received when taken private in 2008 by Apollo and TPG. Then again, that deal was an indebted dog that eventually ended in bankruptcy.

Look ahead: Caesars has a go-shop until July 11.