The big buzzword on stage during this week's Milken Global Conference was "tariffs."

• In the private hotel suites and at the $25,000 restaurant tables, it was "midterms."

Behind the scenes: Almost every dealmaker and executive I spoke with bemoaned White House trade policy, at least in execution, arguing that it threatens the very golden age that Trump has promised.

• But they also believe that the midterm elections, which don't take place for another 18 months, will act as a bulwark.

The big picture: This isn't about future policy changes were Democrats to regain control of Congress. It's about the threat of Democrats regaining control, and the impact that will have on both the White House and GOP lawmakers.

• "Politicians can handle bad headlines and even bad markets, for a while, but there will be hell to pay if photos of empty Walmart shelves go viral," one investor said. "The only thing more powerful than loyalty to Trump is wanting to get reelected."

State of play: Trump may back off his tariffs before pre-stocked inventories run out, particularly as talks with China now appear to be at hand. For the Milken crowd, that would be viewed as a win — no midterms needed.

• If Trump persists, the thinking is that heads will be forced to cool by Labor Day of 2025, not of 2026.
• "You can break the economy very quickly but everyone in D.C. knows that it takes a lot longer to turn things back around," another investor noted.
• Supply chains, cap-ex plans, dealmaking, and other parts of the economy would need time to ramp back up. Particularly given that many have stopped looking too closely at recent performance data, believing it to be anomalous.

The bottom line: America's business elites are banking, in some cases quite literally, on political fears. Or, to be more exact, on politicians' fears.

Unrivaled Sports, a youth sports properties and programming group, raised $120 million led by Dick's Sporting Goods at more than a $650 million post-money valuation.

Why it's the BFD: Youth sports has become professionalized, at least on the operator side, even if lots of us parents yearn for the days of rec league monopolies.

Other investors in the round include Dynasty Equity, LionTree, Miller Sports & Entertainment, and insider The Chernin Group.

Catch up quick: Unrivaled was launched early last year by Josh Harris and David Blitzer, and includes the Cooperstown All Star Village, Ripken Experiences, an indoor snowboarding center, and a flag football league.

• Its 15 properties host over 635,000 youth athletes and 1.7 million visitors annually, per its website, and now will explore partnership opportunities with Dick's.

🚑 NewLimit, an SF-based longevity drug startup, raised $130m in Series B funding at an $810m valuation. Kleiner Perkins led, joined by Khosla Ventures, Human Capital, and Valor Equity Partners. axios.link/3GCDJqb

• Parloa, a German automated customer service startup, raised $120m in Series C funding at a $1b valuation from Durable Capital Partners, Altimeter Capital, General Catalyst, EQT Ventures, RPT Capital, Senovo, and Mosaic Ventures. axios.link/44rYZbV

• Statsig, a Bellevue Wash.-based product development platform, raised $100m in Series C funding at a $1.1b valuation. Iconiq Growth led, joined by Sequoia Capital and Madrona. axios.link/4iNbIt9

⚡ ReNew Energy Global, an Indian solar company, raised $100m from British International Investment. renew.com

• Finom, a Dutch neobank for SMBs, raised €92.7m in non-equity funding from General Catalyst, per TechCrunch. axios.link/3F2TgPl

🌎 Orca AI, a British maritime intelligence provider, raised $72.5m in Series B funding. Brighton Park Capital led, joined by Ankona Capital and Hyperlink Ventures. axios.link/3YB8TnY

• Toloka, an AI data solutions business, raised $72m led by Bezos Expeditions, with participation from Nebius and Shopify CTO Mikhail Parakhin. toloka.ai

• OX Security, a New York-based application security startup, raised $60m in Series B funding. DTCP led, joined by IBM Ventures, Microsoft, Swisscom Ventures, Evolution Equity Partners, and Team8. axios.link/42Lr5O5

• TSOLife, a Tampa, Fla.-based insights platform for senior living operators, raised $43m in Series B funding led by PeakSpan Capital. axios.link/4d4H7pX

🚑 PAQ Therapeutics, a Burlington, Mass.-based protein degradation biotech, raised $39m in Series B funding from Merck, J&J, Bayland Capital, LAV Fund, BioTrack Capital, and Sherpa Healthcare Partners. axios.link/4m5gdSN

🚑 Inductive Bio, an AI-driven drug discovery startup, raised $25m in Series A funding. Obvious Ventures led, joined by a16z, Lux Capital, S32, Character, and Amino Collective. inductive.bio

• Relevance AI, developer of an AI agent operating system, raised $24m in Series B funding. Bessemer Venture Partners led, joined by insiders King River Capital, Insight Partners, and Peak XV. axios.link/3YwrtNX

• WisdomAI, an AI data startup focused on reducing hallucinations, raised $23m in seed funding. Coatue led, joined byMadrona, GTM Capital, and The Anthology Fund. axios.link/4k0luJA

⚡ Breath, a battery performance prediction startup, raised $21m in Series B funding. Kinnevik led, joined by Lowercarbon Capital and Volvo Cars Tech Fund. axios.link/4lVLgQS

🚑 Trailhead Biosystems, a Beachwood, Ohio-based regenerative medicine startup, raised $20m led by MAK Capital. axios.link/3F52CtX

• Unblocked, an AI assistant that helps devs understand codebases, raised $20m in Series A funding from B Capital and Radical Ventures. axios.link/4lZOtPz

• Sett, a developer of AI agents for building mobile games, raised $15m in Series A funding led by Bessemer Venture Partners. axios.link/3GK639Y

• Onebeat, a New York City-based inventory platform, raised $15m. Schooner Capital led, joined by Magenta Venture Partners, Surround Ventures, AnD Ventures, J-Ventures, and INcapital Ventures. axios.link/4m3O7r5

🚑 QbDVision, an Austin, Texas-based life sciences manufacturing company, raised $13m in Series A funding co-led by Northpond Ventures and S3 Ventures. axios.link/42IS90u

🚑 Paradigm Therapeutics, a Mount Pleasant, S.C.-based rare disease biotech, raised $12.5m from Eshelman Ventures. axios.link/42JZInC

🚑 Trilobio, an SF-based lab automation company, raised $8m in seed funding. Initialized Capital led, joined by Argon Ventures and Lowercarbon Capital. axios.link/4m3hEkD

• Agree, an SF-based invoicing and payments platform, raised $7.2m in seed funding. Pelion Venture Partners led, joined by Blank Ventures and Gokul Rajaram. axios.link/4jKKmoY

• Alice, a Danish learning platform, raised $4.8m co-led by Cherry Ventures and YC. alice.tech

🌎 CNaught, an SF-based carbon credits platform, raised $4.5m in seed funding led by Bow Capital, with participation from FJ Labs, Silence VC, Karman Ventures, and Marketplace Capital. axios.link/44qq931

• Tesseral, a provider of authentication infrastructure for B2B software, raised $3.3m in seed funding from YC and individual angels. axios.link/3GKv1pN

🚑 Pulse Charter Connect, a Chicago-based organ transplant logistics startup, raised $2m in seed funding. Ivy Ventures and Simplex Ventures co-led, joined by Cedars Sinai Health Ventures, Belal Badat Ventures, and Techstars. axios.link/3RQRVy0

• CodeAnt AI, a code review startup, raised $2m in seed funding from YC, Brian Shin, Uncorrelated Ventures, DeVC, Transpose Platform, and Entrepreneur First. codeant.ai

🚑 CryoCloud a Dutch cryo-electron microscopy SaaS, raised €2m in seed funding led by Nina Capital. axios.link/4iQ7HEe

🚑 Astorg agreed to acquire Solabia Group, a French developer of active ingredients for pharma and cosmetics, from TA Associates. axios.link/4m1J3TY

• CVC Capital Partners is exploring a £6b takeover bid for Avolta, a Swiss duty-free retailer, per Sky News. axios.link/4jFLiL3

⚡ E Source, a Boulder, Colo.-based portfolio company of Align Capital Partners, acquired ILLUME Advising, an energy-focused consultancy. esource.com

• Greater Sum Ventures acquired MyVenue, an Australian provider of POS tech for event venues. myvenue.com

• Lubrication Engineers, a Wichita, Kan.-based portfolio company of Aurora Capital Partners, acquired RSC Bio Solutions, a maker of biodegradable lubricants. lelubricants.com

• Riverwood Capital acquired Quicklizard, a pricing optimization company. axios.link/3F62Elg

• TA Associates is in advanced talks to buy British data and analytics firm FD Technologies (LSE: FDPF) for around £542m. axios.link/43hzMzL

• TPG acquired Peppertree Capital Management, a digital infrastructure investment firm focused on wireless communications towers. axios.link/44V34p9

• Dune Acquisition II, a SaaS and AI SPAC, raised $125m in a downsized IPO. The earlier Dune SPAC merged with Global Gas, which later was delisted by Nasdaq. axios.link/4hhZo3h

• NMP Acquisition, a SPAC formed by Next Move Partners, filed for a $100m IPO. axios.link/3ROpW25

• Oyster Enterprises II, a SPAC formed by Alden Global, filed for a $200m IPO. axios.link/3RRXaO0

• CDPQ agreed to sell its minority stake in Veolia's (Paris: VIE) water tech subsidiary back to the company for US$1.75b. axios.link/3GJR5Rk

• Weave (NYSE: WEAV) acquired TrueLark, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based customer communications platform that had raised around $10m from firms like BluePointe Ventures and Elevate Capital. getweave.com

• Arthur J Gallagher (NYSE: AJG) acquired Turkish insurer Aspera. axios.link/44ZrTQN

• Geely Auto offered to buy Chinese EV maker Zeekr (NYSE: ZK) at around a $6.4b valuation, or $2.56 per share. axios.link/4m0mFdX

• Masimo (Nasdaq: MASI) agreed to sell its audio business for $350m to Harmon International, a unit of Sony Electronics. axios.link/4miXZgS

• Uber (NYSE: UBER) agreed to buy Turkish food delivery company Trendyol Go for $700m. axios.link/4jISOoH

• Rite Aid filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, less than a year after the Philadelphia-based pharmacy chain exited its last bankruptcy process. It plans to sell or close most of its 1,200 stores. axios.link/42NlAP1

• Weight Watchers (Nasdaq: WW) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. axios.link/3RRmqUw

• Bosch Ventures launched a $270m fund for deep-tech startups. bosch.us

• Coatue is launching a fund to back high-growth public and private tech companies, with a $50k minimum investment, per the WSJ. It's seeded by $1b from the family offices of Jeff Bezos and Michael Dell. axios.link/3RS63XP

• Hidden Harbor Capital Partners raised more than $850m for a continuation fund led by Carlyle AlpInvest that holds stakes in four companies: Dayco, SuperHero Fire Protection, Air Conditioning Specialist, and Inspire Aesthetics. hh-cp.com

• LaunchBay Capital, an India-focused growth equity firm led by ex-Temasek investors, is targeting $400m for its debut fund, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3Z4mHaw

• Marathon Ventures of Greece raised €75m for its third fund, and promoted Alex Alexakis to partner. axios.link/3SnlI1t

• XPV Water Partners, a growth equity firm focused on water services providers and tech developers, raised $625m across two funds. axios.link/4daXKjI

Employees are anxious, despite a strong hiring market and low layoffs, Axios' Emily Peck reports.