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Republican U.S. Rep. French Hill held a 4,402-vote lead over Democrat Chris Jones at 2pm yesterday in an Arkansas congressional race that remained too close to call.

• The race is for the 2nd District, which covers eight counties in central Arkansas and includes Little Rock.

Why it matters: A Jones victory would make him the state's first Black member of Congress and break Republicans' hold on Arkansas' congressional delegation.

• It would also be the first time a Democrat has won a statewide or federal election in Arkansas since 2010, signaling to the GOP that even more historically deep-red states won't be safe bets in upcoming elections.

By the numbers: As of 2pm yesterday, Jones had a majority only in Pulaski County, where he took 65% of the vote.

State of play: Even an extremely close U.S. House race does not automatically trigger a recount in Arkansas.

• If outstanding absentee ballots from overseas voters, combined with the number of provisional ballots, aren't enough to change the results, a candidate must petition the county election commissions to start the recount process.

What they're saying: "Every Arkansan who voted deserves to have their voice heard, and every legal vote deserves to be counted," Kimberly Eddings, campaign manager for Chris Jones for Congress, said in a statement yesterday.

The other side: Hill's campaign did not respond to Axios' request for comment.

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Republicans in the Arkansas House of Representatives no longer have the supermajority they've held for a decade.

Why it matters: Republicans will need Democratic votes to pass most state spending bills, and that will require approval from three-fourths of the House.

State of play: Democrats in NWA flipped five House seats on Tuesday, according to the AP. The AP had called four other House flips for Democrats for a total of nine, with two other races not yet called as of Wednesday night. Democrats also kept all of their current seats.

• In NWA, Democrats Jacob Allen, Rey Hernandez, Mitchell Smith, Dan Holtmeyer and Jamie Atkinson defeated Republican incumbents.
• The other flipped seats were won by Democrats Cynthia Nations, Andrew Eberly and Cassandra Mayes in central Arkansas and Dexter Miller in east Arkansas.

What they're saying: "We're a part of the mix, and our perspectives and the things we're doing to help people have to be considered now," Holtmeyer told Axios.

• Holtmeyer, 36, says he wants to focus on reining in vouchers going to nonpublic schools, health care access amid federal cuts to Medicaid and Medicare and putting in place guardrails for the state's cooperation with ICE. This was Holtmeyer's first run for public office.
• Hernandez, 76, won the seat on his third try after losing in 2022 and 2024. He hopes the wins for Democrats bring more balance to the Legislature and that they can focus on more community needs and "people-centered issues," he told Axios.

Context: Republicans currently have 79 seats, and Democrats have 20. The one vacant seat in the House was in District 8, held by Republican Austin McCollum until his August resignation.

• Republican Kara Armas won a special election to fill the vacancy until January, according to the Arkansas Secretary of State's Office. Her husband, Republican Brian Armas, ran unopposed to take the spot in January.

Zoom out: Democrats also flipped one state Senate seat with Allison Grigsby Sweatman's win over Republican state Rep. Brandon Achor in District 13 in central Arkansas, according to the AP. The seat was held by Republican Jane English, who was term-limited.

• Republicans will have 28 of 35 Senate seats while Democrats will increase their spots from six to seven.

Zoom in: The blue wave also touched local government, as Democrats now control a majority of the Washington County Quorum Court in addition to Democrat Dana Deree's win for county judge. Democrats now have four seats in Benton County.

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👀 Former state Rep. Austin McCollum was elected Benton County judge. McCollum, who is facing felony charges related to domestic violence allegations, ran unopposed for the position.

🗳️ Lowell voters unseated two-term Mayor Chris Moore, electing Bill Adams with 65% of the vote, according to final but unofficial results from Benton County. Adams is a former City Council member and owns Goat Lab Brewery and The Grove comedy club in Lowell.

🗓️ The Bella Vista mayoral election is headed to a runoff after none of the three candidates secured enough of the vote to win. Voters will decide on Dec. 1 between Mayor John Flynn, who led with 43% of the vote, and City Council Member Wendy Hughes.

👩‍💼 Centerton elected City Council Member Wendy Henson as its next mayor over City Council Member Cliff Thompson with 51% of the vote.

👨‍💼 Farmington voters selected Jeff Oxford over Michelle Tabor with 57% of the vote, according to final but unofficial results from Washington County.

💧 Siloam Springs voters approved a 0.625% sales tax to pay for $55 million in wastewater improvements with 61% of the vote.

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Arkansas voters approved measures on citizenship requirements for voting, gun rights and water-project financing Tuesday, but narrowly rejected a proposed economic development amendment.

Why it matters: The votes will change the state Constitution and provide a financing mechanism for some of the state's water and environmental needs.

• The results are per the Arkansas Secretary of State's Office, with 100% of the precincts reporting.

🗳️ Issue 1 — Voting

The "Citizens Only Voting Amendment" passed with 69.1% of the vote.

• It explicitly bars noncitizens from voting in state and local elections. Arkansas already required voters to be U.S. citizens.

💥 Issue 2 — Guns

The gun-rights amendment passed with nearly 71% of the vote, the strongest support among the four measures.

• It expands existing constitutional protections to cover ammunition, firearm accessories and components and describes bearing arms as a "natural, fundamental, and individual right."

💰 Issue 3 — Economic development

Voters narrowly rejected Issue 3, with 50.7% opposed and 49.3% in favor.

• The amendment would have allowed lawmakers to establish economic development districts and authorize public financing for projects.

💧 Issue 4 — Water projects

Voters approved Issue 4 with 56%.

• It authorizes the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission to issue up to $500 million in bonds for water, waste disposal, pollution control, flood control, irrigation and other projects.

What's next: Issues 1 and 2 take effect Jan. 1.

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Thanks to Chloe Gonzales for editing this newsletter.

📰 Alex is reading more about the historic wins.

🛩️ Worth is reading about old jet engines being repurposed to power data centers.