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Today’s newsletter is 1,076 words — a 4-minute read.

Miami-Dade voters favored Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate and governor in Tuesday's midterm elections, signaling a potential shift back toward the county's purple status.

Why it matters: The outcome is a sharp rebuke of the Republican Party's top-ticket candidates and shows its weakening hold over Hispanic voters in the county.

State of play: Miami-Dade voters swung 18 points toward the Democratic Party compared with the 2024 presidential election, according to the Associated Press.

• Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Angie Nixon earned 53% of the vote, compared with Republican incumbent Ashley Moody's nearly 46%, according to Miami-Dade's unofficial results.
• In the gubernatorial race, Democrat David Jolly garnered nearly 53% of the vote to Republican Byron Donalds' nearly 46%, results show.

Meanwhile, the closely watched 27th Congressional District race between Democrat Eliott Rodriguez and incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is heading to a recount.

• The supervisor of elections yesterday confirmed the race's margin stood at 0.46%, falling within Florida's 0.50% automatic machine recount threshold.

What they're saying: "This is a reversion back to the mean," Democratic strategist Steve Schale told Axios on Wednesday, adding that President Trump and Gov. DeSantis were "outliers."

• Schale said "the hangover" from 2020, when Democrats evoked socialist talking points and discussed defunding the police, prevented the county from seeing even larger margins, particularly among Hispanic voters.

Zoom in: Voters in Miami's majority-Black and -white neighborhoods propelled the leftward swing, according to an analysis by the Miami Herald.

• Nixon won the county's majority-Black neighborhoods by more than 70 percentage points and beat Moody in white-majority neighborhoods by about 4 percentage points, the outlet found.
• Jolly outperformed Donalds in the county's majority-Black neighborhoods by about 70 percentage points and by about 9 percentage points in white-majority neighborhoods.

The intrigue: Unlike in other parts of the country, where Latino voters helped Democrats win crucial races, Miami-Dade's Hispanic voters sided with the GOP — though by smaller margins than in previous elections.

• In 2022, DeSantis earned 65% of the vote in majority-Hispanic precincts, outlets reported.
• On Tuesday, Moody beat Nixon by around 4 percentage points in majority-Hispanic neighborhoods, while Donalds outperformed Jolly by about 5 percentage points with less than 52% of the vote, per the Herald.

Yes, but: In some neighborhoods, including Doral, nicknamed "Doralzuela" for its large Venezuelan population, a slim majority supported both Nixon and Jolly, per unofficial results.

• In 2024, the area went with Trump by 23 points, per reports.

The bottom line: For Democrats to win statewide elections, they'll likely need even larger margins in Miami-Dade.

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Florida may not have seen the blue tsunami that crashed over the rest of the country, but there was a wave.

Why it matters: Down-ballot victories and strong turnout are evidence the Sunshine State is still very much in play, the state's top Democrats say.

State of play: Democrats netted 15 seats (with a possible 16th still too close to call) in the Florida House, breaking a GOP supermajority that had granted Republicans unique power to enact their agenda since 2022.

• They held onto congressional seats that Republicans had redrawn earlier this year to favor candidates of their party.
• And counties that went red for President Trump in 2024, including Pinellas and Miami-Dade, flipped blue for David Jolly and Angie Nixon in this cycle.

What they're saying: "Republicans are rejoicing today about their wins," Florida Democratic Party chair Nikki Fried said Wednesday on a call with reporters.

• "They should take a harder look at the numbers and realize that Florida is back to being purple."
• And Democrats made those gains with little investment from the national party, Fried and Nixon noted.
• "People of Florida. Y'all better hold your damn head high," Nixon said on X.

Keep reading: Democratic socialist win

After Florida voters approved Amendment 3, Miami-Dade government leaders must now work to address millions in lost property tax revenue that funds public safety and other government services.

Why it matters: Amendment 3, which will lower property taxes, could lead to service cuts or new taxes and fees, including on commercial buildings, which could increase rents.

Catch up quick: The amendment, which goes into effect in January, increases the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $150,000 by 2027 and then to $250,000 by 2028.

Zoom in: Miami Mayor Eileen Higgins tells Axios that she will work with commissioners and the administration to "make the necessary budget adjustments required by the new state law, while doing everything possible to protect the essential services our residents rely on."

• Amendment 3 is projected to cost Miami about $25 million in lost revenue in 2027 and $18.5 million in 2028.

In Miami-Dade County, Mayor Daniella Levine-Cava tells Axios said she'd work with commissioners and county administrators to "do everything we can to protect essential services."

• The county is projected to lose an estimated $386 million in 2027 and $697 million in 2028.

Meanwhile, in North Miami Beach, a spokesperson tells Axios the city will not impose new fees, increase taxes or reduce services.

• In a statement, city manager Darvin E. Williams tells Axios the city will try to save money by streamlining operations, pursuing non-tax revenue generation and "expand[ing] our commercial tax base."
• "Our objective is not to replace lost property tax revenues by simply shifting the financial burden onto our residents through higher fees or taxes."

Amendment 3 will cost the city about $2.5 million per year in lost revenue, per the spokesperson.

• Williams says he's committed to "protecting public safety, preserving essential municipal services, and maintaining the City's long-term financial stability."

What we're watching: Gov. Ron DeSantis said Wednesday that he'll call a special session to implement Amendment 3 and limit local governments' ability to raise other taxes, Axios Hollywood reports.

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A helicopter crashed off Key Biscayne yesterday, killing one person and seriously injuring two others. (Miami Herald)

👽 Club Space is teasing a three-night "Grand Theft Auto" experience next month that will bring GTA's nightlife to the downtown club. (Miami New Times)

❤️ Martin is wishing his wife Marta a happy birthday!!

🎉 Sommer is also wishing Marta a happy happy birthday!!

This newsletter was edited by Jeff Weiner (who also wishes Marta a happy birthday!!).