President Trump is increasing pressure on Cuba's government, elevating concerns that his continued threats to invade the Caribbean island could become reality.

The big picture: In Miami — the epicenter of the Cuban diaspora — any potential military intervention in Cuba would lead to celebrations in the streets.

• About 79% of South Florida Cubans who responded to a recent poll said they would support military action to remove the current government or address humanitarian needs, the Miami Herald reports.

State of play: U.S. surveillance and reconnaissance flights have surged off Cuba's coast since February, according to a CNN review of flight data.

• The U.S. imposed additional sanctions on Havana last Thursday, prompting the country's foreign minister to describe the measures as a "collective punishment of a genocidal nature."
• The island is also facing a worsening humanitarian crisis that Cuban officials have blamed on a U.S. "energy blockade," which prevents oil suppliers from serving the island.
• And the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro further deteriorated local conditions by cutting Cuba off from a key oil supplier.

Between the lines: There are no definitive signs Trump will target Cuba next.

• Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told reporters last Thursday that Trump told him privately during a closed-door White House meeting that he has no intention of invading Cuba.

Yes, but: Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in a military operation in Cuba, suggesting Friday that an aircraft carrier returning to the U.S. from Iran could be stationed offshore.

Zoom in: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Miami-born son of Cuban immigrants, told reporters last week that the country's economic system doesn't work and can't be fixed.

A White House official told Axios Monday that "Cuba is a failing nation that has been horribly run for many years and whose rulers have had a major setback with the loss of support from Venezuela."

• They added: "As the President stated, Cuba is a failing country. Within a short period of time they will fall, and we will be there to help them out."

Zoom out: Sebastian Arcos, interim director for the Institute for Cuban Studies at Florida International University, tells Axios he doesn't believe Trump will put boots on the ground.

• But, he said, Trump might pursue an "off-distance military action" similar to what happened in Iran that will "shock the regime, crack the leadership and perhaps create an opportunity for new leadership to rise."

What we're watching: Arcos noted that Cuban Independence Day, which marks the end of U.S. occupation of the island, is May 20.

• He said something could happen then, adding, "There's definitely a sense of expectation and anxiety in Miami and Cuba."

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Two South Florida blazes that ignited over the weekend are the latest in what has already been an active wildfire season.

Why it matters: There's been over 2,000 wildfires across the state so far this year amid a severe drought that has led to water restrictions and burn bans in some parts of Florida.

The latest: Max Road Fire west of Pembroke Pines has burned over 11,300 acres in the Everglades and was 70% contained as of Tuesday morning, per the Florida Forest Service.

• The 172 Avenue Fire near Florida City has burned about 300 acres and was 50% contained as of Tuesday.
• No serious injuries or property damage have been reported, the Associated Press reports. A volunteer firefighter died while battling a wildfire in North Florida in April.

The big picture: Florida Forest Service director Rick Dolan told Politico that the state typically sees between 2,200 and 2,400 fires in one year — "and we're almost there already."

• This year's wildfire tally has already set a 10-year high in Florida, per the outlet.

Stunning stat: 92% of Florida is experiencing drought that is considered "severe" or worse, per last week's U.S. Drought Monitor update.

• That puts the Sunshine State under its most severe and widespread drought since 2012, meteorologists have said.

What's next: Florida's peak fire season typically spans from April to June, but the National Interagency Fire Center predicts heightened threats through August, per Politico.

Tell a neighbor

Florida immigrant advocates are worried that immigration enforcement will operate at World Cup venues despite comments from the Miami host committee chair that there would be no ICE agents. (USA Today)

🥕 Nude Miami will open a 4,720-square-foot organic grocery store and café in Brickell this spring. (TimeOut)

Ten people were rescued after a small plane crashed about 50 miles off the coast of Vero Beach. (CBS Miami)

With Miami set to host the World Cup next month, some Floridians are still trying to figure out soccer rules.

• An analysis by Action Network examined five years of Google search data.
• "What is offsides" is the top soccer search across more states than any other, including Florida.

The answer: Being offsides generally means when an offensive player gets ahead of all defenders — except the goalie — before receiving a pass.

A 73.6-pound blue catfish is the largest caught in Florida, the FWC announced yesterday

• Angler Justin Hodge fished it from the Suwannee River in February.